Raybon's Review: DFS Lessons Learned in Week 13

Dec 06, 2017

Analyzing the prior week's results is one of the most valuable investments of your time as a DFS player. In this space, I will deconstruct the winning lineups from FanDuel and DraftKings' biggest GPPs. I will also highlight other key takeaways from the past week.

DraftKings Week 13 Millionaire Maker Winning Lineup Review

Chess_is_ok took down the Milli' Maker in large part thanks to a contrarian Chiefs passing-game stack that was correlated with two members of the opposing Jets passing game. He also used some rock-solid chalk RB plays. According to our GPP odds model (which can be found on our GPP Leverage Scores page), Todd Gurley had the highest probability of hitting tournament value (23%) of any player on the slate, and Kenyan Drake was our sixth-ranked value at RB overall and one of only three along with Jamaal Williams and Marshawn Lynch, both of whom also posted strong production, to have GPP odds of 7% or higher.

Robby Anderson was one of five WRs with a salary below $7,000 and GPP odds of 10% or higher (of the other four, Michael Thomas, Larry Fitzgerald, and Devin Funchess hit while Davante Adams was a bust). Seth Roberts had the highest GPP odds of any WR under $4,700 and had the fourth-highest value rating among all WRs on the slate.

If you were among the 98.3% who didn’t own QB Alex Smith, the 95.4% who didn’t own WR Tyreek Hill, and the 92.3% who didn’t own TE Travis Kelce, how could you have landed on them?

Rostering the Chiefs offense against the Jets was a case of being greedy when others are fearful—a case perhaps aided by Andy Reid ceding play-calling duties to offensive coordinator Matt Nagy. Anytime we’re looking for a way in which we could have landed on low-owned plays, GPP Leverage Scores are a good place to start, and this week was no exception. Smith had the highest leverage score of any QB priced in the top 10, Hill had the highest leverage score of any WR priced above $4,000, and Kelce had the highest leverage score of any TE priced in the top five. A matchup against the Jets was a good one for a struggling passing game to get back on track, as Gang Green came into the game ranked below average in aFPA to QBs (20th), WRs (21st), and TEs (17th).

If you were among the 93.3% who didn’t own WR Jermaine Kearse, how could you have landed on him?

Like Anderson, Kearse was part of an opposing passing game stack with the Chiefs. Kearse’s appearance in the winning lineup makes the two WRs priced under $4,500 with the highest GPP odds 2-for-2 in doing so this week, as Kearse ranked behind only Roberts in that metric. Speaking of metrics, the Chiefs came into the game ranked 29th in WR aFPA—by far their worst ranking versus any skill position.

If you were among the 97.7% who didn’t own the Dolphins DST, how could you have landed on them?

This is one aFPA nailed, as no team entered Week 13 having given up more aFPA to opposing DSTs than the Dolphins. Miami was also tied for the highest GPP odds among sub-$3,000 DSTs. Arguably more than any other position, DST scoring comes down to the matchup, and more specifically, the opposing quarterback. The 3-interception game Trevor Siemian served up would have been tough to predict based on his past history (it was only the second such game of his career), but his propensity to struggle on the road throughout his career would not have: on the road compared to in Mile High, Siemian’s completion percentage drops from 61.3 to 57.6, his yards per attempt drops from 7.6 to 6.2, and his passer rating drops from 87.3 to 74.0.