DFS Quarterback Analysis: Week 15

Dec 14, 2017

An in-depth breakdown of the upside and downside of the QBs on the Week 15 slate is provided below. Analysis includes how to approach each of the chalk options, as well as how options at the various salary tiers fit into overall roster construction. Ultimately, this piece will provide objective analysis to help guide you through the process of finding safe choices for cash games and high-leverage choices for GPPs.

Chalk

Quarterback ownership looks fairly spread out as we have five quarterbacks who project to be in the chalky range of ownership. Due to this, there isn’t much risk in fading any one of these options as quarterback ownership should be flat throughout the chalk options and quarterback scoring is already relatively flat as it is.

Ben Roethlisberger ($8,000/$6,700) has topped 28 or more fantasy points in three of his last four starts and draws a Patriots defense that ranks 15th in quarterback aFPA. However, the Patriots defense has been stingy to opposing offenses, holding teams to 17 or fewer points in eight of their last nine games and they have been able to hold opposing offenses to score on just 30% of their drives, the seventh-lowest rate among offenses. I understand the appeal of Roethlisberger given they’re at home and their weapons, but he’s not someone I am keying on this week.
Jimmy Garoppolo ($7,300/$6,300) is intriguing as the 49ers run the eighth-fastest pace in the league and the 49ers are implied for a respectable 23 points, coming in as 2-point favorites over the Titans. The downside to Jimmy is the Titans run such a boring, slow-paced offense as they rank 26th in neutral pace of play (per Football Outsiders) and the Titans rank eighth in quarterback aFPA. Considering Jimmy is $100 less than Cam Newton DraftKings, I’d rather look that way.
Russell Wilson ($8,400/$7,300) arguably boasts the highest floor and ceiling among quarterbacks every week. The Seahawks have an implied team total of 25 points, which is tied for the fourth-highest total on the slate. It’s not an ideal spot as the Rams rank fifth in quarterback aFPA, but given that Wilson accounts for such a high percentage of his team’s offense with his ability to run the ball, he’s relatively matchup-proof. That said, it’s going to be tough to pay up quarterback with a few high-end players we’re looking to target at the other skill positions.
Tom Brady ($8,800/$7,600) and the Patriots have the slate’s second-highest total at 28 points, squaring off against a Steelers defense ranked 19th in quarterback aFPA. Their defense has taken a step back with CB Joe Haden out (may play this week) and LB Ryan Shazier on IR. That said, Brady makes for a tough play on the road and on a short week when he’s the highest-priced quarterback on each site. Rostering Brady will severely limit you elsewhere.
Cam Newton ($7,900/$6,400) is my favorite play on the board among quarterbacks. He draws a fantastic matchup against an atrocious Packers defense ranked 29th in quarterback aFPA. Newton is the No. 1 value on DraftKings and No. 2 value on FanDuel. The Green Bay defense can’t stop anyone through the air and Cam’s rushing ability solidifies his floor and ceiling. With Aaron Rodgers cleared to return, this game also has shootout potential.