DFS Kicker and DST Analysis: Week 16

Dec 21, 2017

I'm Justin Bailey. Each week I’ll provide 4for4 DFS subscribers with an in-depth breakdown of the upside and downside of the defenses and kickers on the main slate. For those of you who don't know me, I've been analyzing DFS since 2014. My analysis in this space will include how to approach each of the chalk options, along with how options at the various salary tiers fit into overall roster construction. Ultimately, this piece will provide objective analysis to help guide you through the process of finding safe choices for cash games and high-leverage choices for GPPs.

Chalk DSTs

The Bears, Rams, and Chargers all project to be our chalk defenses. All three defenses on DraftKings are priced $3,500 or above which may make them more difficult to fit in depending on how roster construction goes this week. If I can afford it, my cash defense will come from this range.

The Chicago Bears ($4,800/$3,500) project as a top-two value on both sites as they face off against a Browns offense ranked 31st in defensive aFPA. The Bears should find success as they’re 6.5-point home favorites against a Browns team implied to score 15.75 points, the lowest total on the slate. The Browns offense is slightly better with the addition of Josh Gordon, but they still boast a league-high 21% turnover rate and a league-low scoring rate.
The Los Angeles Rams ($4,600/$3,600) project to be one of our chalk defenses but they rank dead last in our value reports on DraftKings and 11th on FanDuel. It’s a decent spot as the Titans rank 22nd in defensive aFPA and the Rams are 6.5-point favorites. There is some risk with using a defense on the road, but the Rams should boast a high a floor as their defensive line ranks third in Football Outsiders’ adjusted sack rate, forcing 47 sacks this season—the second-most in the league.
The Los Angeles Chargers ($4,900/$3,700) have a solid matchup against Bryce Petty and the Jets as they rank 23rd in defensive aFPA. They’re on the road, but the Jets are implied for just 17.75 points. The Chargers had some injuries on their interior but they should have a decent floor with Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram rushing the passer. It also helps they have one of the best secondaries in the league.