The Top DFS Stacks on FanDuel and DraftKings in Week 16

Dec 21, 2017

Here I’ll be diving into stacks that mainly involve Week 16's highest over/unders. For starters, I’ll lead with my favorite game stack from the highest implied over/under game, followed by analyzing the next few games with the highest totals on the slate, and then finally a stack projected for low ownership.

Saints (29) vs. Falcons (23.5) — 52.5 Over/Under

Drew Brees ($8,400/$6,500) + Alvin Kamara ($8,500/$8,300) + Mark Ingram ($8,300/$8,100)

The Saints and Falcons game certainly has a lot of DFS goodness in it. The Saints have been an interesting offense this season since they’ve established their running game and improved on defense. They’ve scored 42 offensive touchdowns, with 21 each coming from the pass and run.

Even more interesting is that the team's red zone touchdowns are also split 50/50 between the pass and run, and of their 21 passing touchdowns, 24 percent have been caught by running backs.

If Kamara and Ingram hit, it could potentially cap the ceiling of Brees, but you’re still collecting all the team's points on offense together. If Kamara and Ingram each scored 25 points each, for example, and Brees only scores 10, you’re still averaging 20 points per position. You’re hoping that Brees throws touchdown passes to Kamara and/or Ingram, which is certainly possible given each of their involvement in the passing game. The two backs have combined for 30 percent of the Saints’ target share since the Adrian Peterson trade, which is tied with Michael Thomas.

Kamara and Ingram have also combined for 62.5 percent of the team's red zone opportunities (targets + carries) over that span. Breaking it down to just targets, the duo has combined for 38 percent of New Orleans' red zone target share. Individually, Kamara and Ingram have each seen nine red zone targets, which is also right behind Thomas (11). If you’re feeling frisky, this combination is 100 percent doable in FanDuel cash games to give you a decent floor. I’ve been very anti-Kamara in cash ever since his price started to spike, but he did see 18 touches last week. That said, if the Saints offense somehow stalls out, your team is dead. D. E. A. D.