Raybon's Review: DFS Lessons Learned in Week 16

Dec 27, 2017

Analyzing the prior week's results is one of the most valuable investments of your time as a DFS player. In this space, I will deconstruct the Week 16 winning lineups from FanDuel and DraftKings' biggest GPPs. I will also highlight other key takeaways from the past week's games and/or the season to date.

DraftKings Week 16 NFL $1.5M Eight Reindeer Special Winning Lineup Review

Statza40 won first place with a lineup of mostly popular players—which will happen when only 12.2% of the field owns the player that scores over 20 points more than any other player on the slate. Todd Gurley came into last week leading the league in DraftKings points, and his GPP odds were higher than any other player on the entire slate.

Given the plethora of high-end RB options, many entrants seemingly felt Gurley’s ceiling could be replicated at a cheaper salary, but it didn’t happen. Gurley’s previous season-high of 48 DraftKings points had only been bested once all season, by Kareem Hunt in Week 1 (49.6), and now Gurley owns two of the three highest-scoring games for a running back this season.

Dion Lewis was second in GPP odds among RBs under $7,000, and had a matchup with a Bills defense ranked 31st in RB aFPA. Larry Fitzgerald was first in GPP odds among WRs under $7,000, and was facing a Giants defense ranked 31st in WR aFPA. Keelan Cole and Kendall Wright (though he didn't actually hit) were tied for second in GPP odds among WRs under $5,000. Ebron was first in GPP odds among TEs under $6,900 (i.e., outside of Rob Gronkowski and Travis Kelce). The Bears were tied for first in GPP odds as they faced a Browns team ranked 31st in DEF aFPA.

If you were one of the 92.2% who did not own QB Blake Bortles, how could you have landed on him?

Bortles came into Week 16 having scored 23 or more DraftKings points in three of his last four games. With the Texans playing on Christmas day instead of on the main slate, the 49ers' 31st-ranked defense in QB aFPA presented the most favorable matchup of the day. You could also point to opposing passing game correlations if you believed Jimmy Garoppolo was going to continue his impressive season against Jacksonville’s top-ranked pass defense, though Bortles’ production against other teams with strong passing attacks, such as the Steelers (3.7 DraftKings points), Rams (14.46), and Seahawks (18.52), was largely underwhelming.

If you were one of the 94.7% who did not own RB C.J. Anderson, how could you have landed on him?

Anderson was coming off back-to-back games with at least 24 touches, including a season-high 30 touches in Week 15. That cheap volume proved to be pivotal on a slate which featured nine RBs with a salary of $7,000 or more—outside of Todd Gurley, Anderson outscored every one of them.