DFS Quarterback Analysis: Week 2

Sep 14, 2017

An in-depth breakdown of the upside and downside of the QBs on the Week 2 slate is provided below. Analysis includes how to approach each of the chalk options, as well as how options at the various salary tiers fit into overall roster construction. Ultimately, this piece will provide objective analysis to help guide you through the process of finding safe choices for cash games and high-leverage choices for GPPs.

Chalk

It’s a fun week when the top four chalk options—Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, and Matt Ryan—all play each other in the projected highest-scoring games of the week. Because we know that the majority of the ownership will flock to those four, it won’t be hard to be contrarian this week. There are options in favorable spots in both the stud and mid-rage salary categories that have a similar range of outcomes relative to the chalk options. Paying down at QB was the flavor of the week in Week 1, but paying slightly below the top tier is where the leverage will be at in Week 2.

The upside for Tom Brady ($9200/$7900) is simple: the Patriots come in with the highest implied team total on the week (31.25) against a Saints defense that is projected at 27th in QB aFPA. The downside to Brady is for GPP purposes, he has one of the lowest GPP Leverage Scores among quarterbacks.
The upside for Aaron Rodgers ($9100/$7400) is the Packers are implied for 25.5 points against a Falcons defense that is projected at 30th in QB aFPA. In their two meetings last season with Atlanta, Rodgers averaged 30.45 DraftKings points per game. The Falcons allowed the fifth-most passing TDs last year (31). The downside comes into play for GPPs, as Rodgers' GPP Leverage Score ranks near the bottom of the position along with Brady.
The upside for Matt Ryan ($8200/$7500) is much like all the other chalk options. The Falcons are one of four teams with an implied team total of at least 28 points, Ryan averages 21.75 fantasy points per game at home, and he is currently our top QB value on FanDuel. The downside is that you won’t be able to gain much leverage on the field with him in GPPs.
The upside for Drew Brees ($8700/$7700) is he is featured in one of the highest scoring games (55.5 over/under), and the Saints have reasonable team total of 24.5. Historically, Brees averages 25.43 DraftKings points per game when playing at the Superdome, with similar results whether the Saints are favorites or underdogs. The downside is his GPP Leverage Score is also low, which means that as with Brady, Rodgers, and Ryan, you won’t be able to gain very much leverage against the field with a chalk option like Brees.