FanDuel Week 2 Slate Breakdown with Cash & GPP Picks

Sep 14, 2017

Every DFS slate requires a unique approach. With every player at the disposal of both you and your opponents, you have to account for the upside and downside of not just the players you choose to play, but also those you don't. Whereas our positional strategy articles are primarily focused on providing objective analysis on that upside and downside, this column is focused on the resulting strategy that emerges from that information. I will highlight what causes me to lean toward particular players and away from others in both cash games and tournaments. Whether you agree with every take or not, this column will help you clarify your position on key players and situations in Week 2.

Cash Game Breakdown

Both New England at New Orleans and Green Bay at Atlanta have an over/under above 53 points. No other games in Week 2 have an over/under above 47.5 (Philadelphia at Kansas City). Because players in the Patriots-Saints and Packers-Falcons games project to be disproportionately owned, cash games are the best place to roster most of the players in those games. As I'll get into in the tournament breakdown, the concentrated ownership provides a lot of great opportunities to gain leverage by using players in other overlooked games.

Quarterback

Since opposing passing games are strongly correlated, you can’t go wrong with any of Tom Brady ($9,200), Aaron Rodgers ($9,100), Drew Brees ($8,700) or Matt Ryan ($8,200) in cash this week. As the only home favorite of the four with the second-highest implied total (28) at the fourth-highest cost, Ryan offers the most value. Ryan faced Green Bay twice last season, carving Dom Capers’ unit up for a combined 55-of-73 passing (75.3%) for 680 yards (9.31 yards per attempt) with 7 TDs and no interceptions as the Falcons rattled off a combined 77 total points.

One other cash game option is Philip Rivers, who is a nice tournament play as well. Against Miami, Rivers is a home favorite, a circumstance under which his TD odds become elevated—Rivers averaged 2.6 TDs per game as a home favorite last season and 2.25 per game as a home favorite since 2013 (compared to 1.84 and 1.82, respectively, in all other games). Last time we saw Miami’s defense, it was getting lit up for 28 points in the first half in the Week 3 dress rehearsal against Philadelphia. Rivers' $7,000 salary is at its lowest point since Week 4 of 2013.