DFS Quarterback Analysis: Week 3

Sep 21, 2017

An in-depth breakdown of the upside and downside of the QBs on the Week 3 slate is provided below. Analysis includes how to approach each of the chalk options, as well as how options at the various salary tiers fit into overall roster construction. Ultimately, this piece will provide objective analysis to help guide you through the process of finding safe choices for cash games and high-leverage choices for GPPs.

Chalk

Roster construction this week when it comes to QBs will look a bit different than it did Week 2. All of the chalk options this week are more in the mid-range salary tier, whereas last week all the chalkiest plays were in the top tier. Given the way salaries shape up overall this week, there isn’t going to be much downside in fading any one of the chalk options. Ownership should be spread out evenly, as there is no glaring must-play.

The upside with Matthew Stafford ($7900/$6200) is that he will square off at home against a Falcons defense that we have rated 30th in QB aFPA. The Falcons defense ranks in the bottom-10 in total yards allowed and is now without Vic Beasley, who is coming off a 15.5-sack season. Through two weeks, Stafford is the league's fifth-most efficient quarterback this season, with an average of 0.61 fantasy points per dropback. He’s thrown 6 touchdowns in two games and is completing over 70 percent of his passes. The Lions are also one of nine teams to have scored every one of their red zone touchdowns via the pass. The downside to Stafford is the Lions are three-point underdogs with a middling implied team total hovering around 23.75 points.
The upside with Kirk Cousins ($7600/$6100) is the Redskins are at home with an implied team total of 25.5 points against a Raiders defense that we have rated 18th in QB aFPA. As slight underdogs, this could invoke a pass-heavy game-flow for Cousins, who has plenty of options in Terrelle Pryor, Jamison Crowder, Jordan Reed (if healthy), as well as Chris Thompson out of the backfield. Cousins was a solid fantasy QB last season, averaging 307 passing yards per game. However, the downside to Cousins is he is off to a slow start to begin the year with just 12.7 fantasy points per game and 0.35 points per dropback, which is the 11th-worst mark in the league. Rostering Cousins comes down to how much you’re going to weigh his slow start this year versus his fantasy output last season.
The upside with Cam Newton ($8100/$6600) is he has the luxury of facing one the most generous defenses to QBs. Through two games this season the Saints have allowed 1,025 yards of total offense and surrendered six passing touchdowns. And let’s not forget that the Saints defense has yet to force a turnover while allowing 68.4 percent of offensive drives to result in a score. The Panthers sport a healthy 26.5-point implied team total at home. The downside to Cam is he is struggling mightily. Through two games, he has thrown for 399 yards, and two touchdown passes. The Panthers have been more run-heavy than pass-heavy this season, as they’ve run on 54 percent of their offensive attempts. Newton will have step up his efficiency to pay off his price tag; he’s averaging under 13 fantasy points per game through two games.