DFS Tight End Analysis: Week 3

Sep 20, 2017

DFS is a game of exploiting a lot of small edges, therefore all options at each position should be explored every week. Below is an analysis of this week’s tight ends on the main slate, including the upside and downside of the most viable players on the slate with explanations for how you might adjust your approach to the position depending on the game type. The chalk and any referenced ownership percentages are derived from the 4for4 DFS Ownership Projections.

Chalk

Without any egregiously priced players on either site, and few notable matchups for any of the higher-volume tight ends, ownership at the position is likely to be even flatter than usual this week. Jack Doyle and Eric Ebron figure to be the most popular choices at the position, both priced almost identically on FanDuel and DraftKings. Because the two chalk plays are priced so close together, venturing to another pricing tier will allow owners to easily differentiate at tight end, which is usually the preferred GPP strategy since the position is so inherently volatile.

After a quiet Week 1 outing, Jack Doyle caught 8 balls for 79 yards, accounting for 22% of the Colts' targets with Jacoby Brissett under center in Week 2. With Andrew Luck already announced out for Week 3, Brissett will again get the starting nod for Indianapolis, which should bode well for Doyle's fantasy outlook. The concern, of course, is this offense as a whole—the Colts have averaged just 11 points per game in the first two weeks. While Doyle doesn’t offer much in terms of his ceiling, he’s an affordable floor play against a Cleveland defense that ranks 31st in tight end aFPA.
Like Doyle, Eric Ebron got off to a slow start this season, but posted a 5/42/1 line on Monday—Ebron’s numbers probably would have been even more impressive against New York, but Detroit passed just five times in the second half with the game readily in hand. Though his five targets in Week 2 don’t stand out as a huge volume number, those five targets accounted for nearly 24% of the Lions targets. Against Atlanta, who is one of the highest-scoring teams in the league, Detroit should return to their high-volume passing attack in Week 3. Note that Detroit is a three-point underdog and tight ends have generally shown more upside as favorites.