DFS Kicker & DST Analysis: Week 4

Sep 28, 2017

I'm Justin Bailey. Each week I’ll provide 4for4 DFS subscribers with an in-depth breakdown of the upside and downside of the defenses and kickers on the main slate. For those of you who don't know me, I've been analyzing DFS since 2014. My analysis in this space will include how to approach each of the chalk options, along with how options at the various salary tiers fit into overall roster construction. Ultimately, this piece will provide objective analysis to help guide you through the process of finding safe choices for cash games and high-leverage choices for GPPs.

Chalk DSTs

Pricing is tight once again on DraftKings this week, which makes paying up for our top-projected chalk defenses a little bit tougher. The Cardinals project to be one of the highest owned on both sites. On DraftKings, I’ll likely start my roster construction with my defense and my quarterback because that will dictate how the rest of my team looks. While the Cardinals and Bengals are priced high on DraftKings, they both rank high in our value reports on FanDuel. There never is much downside fading a chalk defense unless they have a ceiling game (Rams in Week 1) because if they don’t score a touchdown, their range of outcomes is much more narrow than other positions.

The upside with the Arizona Cardinals ($4,600/$3,200) is that they take on a 49ers team ranked in the bottom-12 in points forced, yards per play, total yards, and turnover rate. Arizona is in a favorable spot as 7-point home favorites, while the 49ers are implied for 18.75 points—the fourth-lowest on the slate. The downside with the Cardinals is they have one of the lowest leverage scores among defenses.
The upside with the Cincinnati Bengals ($4,600/$3,500) is that they are 3.5-point favorites against a Browns offense that is implied for 18.75 points—the third-lowest total on the slate. They also get linebacker Vontaze Burfict back from his suspension. Without Burfict, they already ranked in the top-12 in points allowed, total yards allowed, and yards per play. Only 24.3% of the Browns’ drives have ended in a score, which is the fourth-worst rate in the league, which pairs well with their league-worst 24.3% turnover rate. The only downside for the Bengals is they’re on the road.