DFS Quarterback Analysis: Week 4

Sep 28, 2017

An in-depth breakdown of the upside and downside of the QBs on the Week 4 slate is provided below. Analysis includes how to approach each of the chalk options, as well as how options at the various salary tiers fit into overall roster construction. Ultimately, this piece will provide objective analysis to help guide you through the process of finding safe choices for cash games and high-leverage choices for GPPs.

Chalk

Tom Brady is currently projected to be our chalkiest quarterback on both DraftKings and FanDuel in Week 4. Given the dynamics of this slate, there probably isn’t much downside in fading Brady in cash games. It’s going to be tough to roster some of the top-tier running backs in favorable spots this weekend if you’re plugging Brady into your cash game roster. However, in tournaments, it’s never a bad idea to get some exposure to Brady if you’re building multiple lineups. There is plenty of leverage to be had in any of the pricing tiers for Week 4.

The upside with Tom Brady ($9,500/$8,000) is fairly simple. The Patriots are implied for a slate-high 28.75 points, and he has been one of the most efficient quarterbacks this season. After failing to throw a touchdown in Week 1, he’s now thrown for 8 touchdown passes over his last two games, while throwing 0 interceptions. He’s averaging 364 passing yards per game, which gives him a very high chance of hitting the 300-yard passing bonus. He has also been the second-most efficient quarterback this season, averaging .63 fantasy points per dropback. The Patriots’ poor defensive play has unleashed Brady thus far. Brady is tougher to get to in cash games, but he also makes it nearly impossible to get exposure to the top-tier running backs or wide receivers. While matchups don’t matter for Brady, it is worth noting the Panthers defense ranks inside the top-three in points allowed, total yards allowed, and net yards per attempt. However, the strength of opponent should be considered as they faced Buffalo and San Franciso in their first two weeks.