DFS Wide Receiver Analysis: Week 4

Sep 28, 2017

Each week I break down the wide receiver position and explain how you should think about players in terms of tiers, their overall impact on lineup construction, and potential range of outcomes.

Below is an analysis of this week’s wide receivers on the main slate, including the upside and downside of each relevant player, and how you might adjust your approach to the position depending on the game type. The chalk and any referenced ownership percentages are derived from the 4for4 DFS Ownership Projections.

Note: The Sunday night game between the Colts and the Seahawks is NOT on DraftKings' main slate this week.

Chalk

After a big fantasy week, it’s not uncommon for players to see a significant spike in ownership, and that seems to be the case in Week 4. Stefon Diggs and Larry Fitzgerald were the top fantasy receivers last week and figure to be among the highest-owned at their position this week. A.J. Green had his best game of the short season in Week 3 and will draw high ownership on both sites, while Julio Jones continues to be among the most popular plays, especially on DraftKings. There’s a bit of a gap in pricing between the chalk plays this week, which allows for price pivots if owners are seeking a unique lineup or creative lineup builds even with one or two popular plays.

After publicly saying he wanted more targets, A.J. Green saw a whopping 50% of the Bengals passes directed his way in Week 3. Now second in the league in target share, Green will face a Browns secondary ranked 24th against receivers when adjusted for strength of schedule, and he’s still a relative discount compared to the top two or three receivers. With a 55.6% pass rate in the red zone through three weeks, Cincinnati has thrown at a below-average clip inside the 20.
Minnesota’s offense looked abominable in Case Keenum’s first start two weeks ago, but the Vikings bounced back in a huge way in Week 3. Sam Bradford is still questionable for Week 4. Regardless of who’s under center, Stefon Diggs has been dominant, averaging over eight targets per game and accounting for over 30% of the Vikings’ red zone looks. Detroit is probably still perceived as a good matchup for opposing passing games, but the Lions currently rank eighth in quarterback aFPA and sixth in wide receiver aFPA.
Only two players are averaging more targets per game than Larry Fitzgerald, and no one has seen more passes thrown his way in the red zone. The 49ers rank 26th in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to wide receivers, and Fitz will draw San Francisco's worst cornerback in terms of target rate and fantasy points per target in K’Waun Williams. For Fitz to continue to recognize his ceiling, though, Carson Palmer will have to improve in the red zone—Palmer leads the league in red zone attempts, but ranks 21st in red zone touchdowns.
Julio Jones had a relatively quiet Week 1, but he has accounted for 34% of Atlanta’s targets in back-to-back games. Until Julio’s red zone involvement changes, it will be tough to justify his price. Jones has just one red zone target through three weeks and the Falcons have thrown on fewer than 52% of their red zone plays so far this year.