FanDuel Week 6 Slate Breakdown with Cash and GPP Picks

Oct 12, 2017

It sets up as a good week as any to go against the grain with roster construction. All the cheap running backs in play mean the average lineup will spend a lot less on running back than it normally would. In tournaments this can obviously be a big advantage, but it’s relevant in cash games as well—the top five values at running back this week are all the ones priced $8,400 and up, and the optimal lineup features two stud backs.

Games to Target

Browns at Texans: O/U 47

With the Texans down two integral members of their front seven in J.J. Watt and Whitney Mercilus, this game has sneaky shootout potential. The Browns scored only 14 points last week, but turned the ball over twice inside the 5-yard line and also missed two field goals.

While some DFS players shy away from stacking in cash games, I believe there ends up being more risk involved with not playing the best combinations of players possible, regardless of correlation. With that said, there are three Texans I think should be locked into cash game lineups this week: Deshaun Watson ($7,900), DeAndre Hopkins ($8,000), and Ryan Griffin ($4,500). Watson checks all the boxes as a home favorite against a Browns defense ranked 32nd in QB aFPA and has he passed or rushed for 14 of the Texans’ 15 offensive TDs. Hopkins is second in the NFL in targets per game (12.4) and tied for fifth in red zone targets (7) while the Browns have allowed at least 11.1 points to every No. 1 wide receiver they’ve faced. Griffin has played 88% of snaps over the past three weeks and the Browns have allowed at least 11.9 points to four of the five starting tight ends they’ve faced.
I tend to bet on non-elite wide receivers not having back-to-back monster games, a feat Will Fuller ($6,000) has accomplished thanks to two 2-TD games, despite not reaching 100 yards receiving. I’d fade Fuller outside of stacks with Watson or Texans DST ($5,300) stacks in tournaments (he’s already returned two punts for 49 yards).
On the Browns side, Kevin Hogan ($6,100) is one of my favorite GPP plays because it leverages opposing passing game correlations and provides unique roster construction. Hogan went 16-of-19 for 194 yards with 2 TDs and 1 interception last week. He also rushed for 104 yards and a TD in a game last season, and because of his rushing equity, he can be left unstacked. That said, 24% of Hogan’s targets this season have been directed at second-year wideout Ricardo Louis ($4,500), and the duo have gone 7-for-9 for 99 yards. Louis has at least 8 targets in each of the past two weeks. Rookie first-round tight end David Njoku ($4,500) has had good chemistry with Hogan as well (4-for-4, 71 yards, 2 TDs).