DFS Running Back Analysis: Week 8

Oct 26, 2017

Here is my breakdown on all of the DFS-relevant running backs for Week 8, including their upside, downside, and where we can find an edge.

I will be breaking down the running back position each week based on the following set of criteria:

Chalk: The players who should end up being very highly owned for the slate.
Studs: Expensive players with high floor and ceilings that should come with a lower ownership percentages than the chalk.
Mid-Range: Players who come in cheaper than studs but aren't value, or "punt," plays.
Value: The cheapest options at the position.

Chalk

Look for Shady McCoy, Mark Ingram, and Joe Mixon to all carry heavy ownership this week due to plus matchups and good pricing.

LeSean McCoy (8700/8400) is coming off an excellent fantasy performance and now gets an Oakland defense that ranks 16th in RB aFPA and has allowed an average of 104 rushing yards on 25 attempts per game to opposing running backs this season.
Mark Ingram (7400/7200) is really just a cheaper version of LeSean McCoy this week, but is perhaps in a much better spot game-script-wise. The Saints are a 9-point home favorite and carry an implied team total pushing 28 points. Ingram is averaging 0.42 PPR points per snap and has played an average of 44.5 snaps per game since Adrian Peterson was traded. Ingram also carries massive TD equity this week with all the red zone work he has been seeing lately.
Joe Mixon (4700/5900) has an excellent matchup this week versus the Colts, who rank 31st in RB aFPA. Much like Ingram, Mixon is in a #goodspot, with the Bengals being double-digit home favorites and pushing a 26-point implied team total. Over the past three weeks, Mixon is averaging roughly a 50% snap rate and is still competing with Jeremy Hill in the red zone—Mixon has 8 red zone touches to Hill's 9 on the season. That means Mixon's TD equity is not as good as it could be, though I still love the idea of attacking the high implied team total of the Bengals.
Ezekiel Elliott (9200/9000) projects to be fairly chalky, carrying a 20–25% ownership projection on both sites this week. With LeVeon Bell not on the main DraftKings slate, Elliott may very well carry significantly more than that in cash games. Dallas is a road favorite versus the Redskins, who rank 13th in RB aFPA, so there might be some merit to fading him due to his price tag.