Finding Best-Ball Quarterback Pairings
In a recent article highlighting how to win best-ball leagues, one strategy that stood out was a roster construction of just two quarterbacks. The following will address how to plan for a best-ball draft where you select only two signal-callers.
Accounting for Bye Weeks
With the NFL schedule officially released, best-ball owners can confidently opt for just two quarterbacks without the fear of doubling up on a bye week. Since not all best-ball platforms clearly state bye weeks in the draft lobby, I've put together this grid showing the bye weeks for each probable starting quarterback.
| WEEK 4 | WEEK 5 | WEEK 6 | WEEK 7 | WEEK 8 | WEEK 9 | WEEK 10 | WEEK 11 | WEEK 12 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Smith | Jameis Winston | Drew Brees | Aaron Rodgers | Dak Prescott | Andrew Luck | Case Keenum | Jimmy Garoppolo | Jared Goff |
| Cam Newton | Mitch Trubisky | Matthew Stafford | Ben Roethlisberger | Marcus Mariota | Andy Dalton | Deshaun Watson | Ryan Tannehill | Patrick Mahomes |
| Derek Carr | Matt Ryan | Blake Bortles | Joe Flacco | Tom Brady | ||||
| Russell Wilson | Philip Rivers | Carson Wentz | Kirk Cousins | Tyrod Taylor | ||||
| Eli Manning | ||||||||
| Sam Bradford |
Owners can bookmark this page for a quick reference when considering quarterback combos. The names in this table will be updated periodically as we get closer to the season and new starters emerge.
Pairing Quarterbacks by Consistency
Owners deciding to draft only two quarterbacks shouldn't do so blindly. In a winner-take-all best-ball format, more risk-averse owners might want to pair a reliable quarterback with a high-upside player while drafters hoping to land on the good side of variance might opt for two quarterbacks with wide ranges of outcomes. Both strategies have merit, but regardless of your personal risk tolerance, a two-quarterback approach should almost always pair two players likely to retain their starting jobs over the entirety of the season.
Anyone spending a relatively high draft pick on an Aaron Rodgers-type should virtually always wait as long as possible to draft a reliable QB2. In this situation, it's beneficial to seek upside over consistency since a consistent, middling quarterback will rarely outscore someone like Rodgers.
For those playing in a league that pays out three or more spots—assuming a 12-team league—pairing two quarterbacks who are consistent but don't offer much upside can be a fine strategy. In order to measure a quarterback's consistency, I used the Coefficient of Variation (CV) method, which is explained here. In short, the lower the CV for a player's weekly PPG, the more consistent that player is. Below is a list of 26 veteran quarterbacks with a decent chance to start Week 1 who have also started at least eight games in one of the past two seasons. Week 17 games were not included since teams often rest starters that week.
| Player | Team | 2-Year PPG | PPG Rank | CV | 2017 CV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philip Rivers | LAC | 16.4 | 14 | 32.3% | 37.6% |
| Matthew Stafford | DET | 16.8 | 11 | 33.4% | 29.4% |
| Matt Ryan | ATL | 17.5 | 8 | 34.5% | 27.2% |
| Aaron Rodgers | GB | 21.5 | 1 | 35.8% | 45.4% |
| Kirk Cousins | MIN | 18.6 | 5 | 36.6% | 40.9% |
| Drew Brees | NO | 18.7 | 4 | 38.1% | 22.0% |
| Tom Brady | NE | 19.6 | 2 | 38.7% | 40.5% |
| Carson Wentz | PHI | 16.6 | 12 | 39.8% | 27.6% |
| Blake Bortles | JAX | 16.5 | 13 | 40.0% | 43.1% |
| Tyrod Taylor | CLE | 16.3 | 15 | 40.9% | 46.3% |
| Cam Newton | CAR | 18.2 | 6 | 41.4% | 46.6% |
| Russell Wilson | SEA | 19.2 | 3 | 42.9% | 37.3% |
| Jameis Winston | TB | 15.5 | 17 | 45.2% | 56.5% |
| Dak Prescott | DAL | 17.8 | 7 | 45.4% | 57.3% |
| Andy Dalton | CIN | 14.6 | 20 | 45.6% | 56.2% |
| Ben Roethlisberger | PIT | 17.3 | 9 | 46.0% | 42.1% |
| Marcus Mariota | TEN | 15.8 | 16 | 46.0% | 33.6% |
| Alex Smith | WAS | 16.9 | 10 | 46.3% | 41.8% |
| Joe Flacco | BAL | 13.1 | 25 | 46.6% | 47.7% |
| Sam Bradford | ARI | 14.2 | 21 | 48.1% | 126.7% |
| Derek Carr | OAK | 15.5 | 17 | 48.4% | 49.7% |
| Eli Manning | NYG | 13.7 | 24 | 49.0% | 62.0% |
| Mitch Trubisky | CHI | 11.4 | 27 | 49.0% | 49.0% |
| Jared Goff | LAR | 13.8 | 23 | 56.3% | 39.1% |
| Case Keenum | DEN | 14.0 | 22 | 56.4% | 44.8% |
A Few Notes...
- Philip Rivers and Matthew Stafford—the two most consistent fantasy quarterbacks since the beginning of 2016—are going as the QB10 or lower in both DRAFT and MFL10 leagues. Using consecutive picks to pair Rivers and Stafford in a league paying out three or more places is a fine strategy, especially early in the draft season while skill position battles are up in the air.
- Jared Goff's two-year numbers may look erratic but the Rams signal-caller finished as the QB12 in 2017 and had a top-10 consistency score. Consider him a similar option to Rivers and Stafford in terms of consistency and upside.
- Like Goff, Marcus Mariota was markedly more consistent in 2017 than in 2016, but his fantasy scoring was pedestrian. With a new coaching regime and the addition of one of the best pass-catching backs in the league in Dion Lewis, look for Mariota to make the leap in scoring while maintaining his consistency.
- Dak Prescott and Jameis Winston were both noticeably less consistent in 2017 than in 2016. While Dak has a considerably higher PPG average than Winston, Dallas' receiving corps has many more question marks than Tampa Bay's. Of these two quarterbacks, expect Prescott to bring more weekly volatility to your team in 2018, even if his PPG average remains higher.
- Alex Smith and Ben Roethlisberger are the only quarterbacks who have averaged at least 16 PPG over the last two seasons with a CV of at least 46 percent. While both of these players figure to continue as QB1s in 2018, know that they have historically put up more duds than the typical top-12 fantasy quarterback.
Remember that the considerations outlined here are mainly for teams looking to roster just two quarterbacks. Owners who prefer three signal-callers can take on more risk, both in terms of consistency and draft position. As we get closer to the season and 4for4's Schedule-Adjusted Fantasy Points Allowed is updated, strength of schedule will be another layer to add to the quarterback pairing puzzle.
Photo by Joe Sargent/Getty Images.
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