Primetime DFS Slate Breakdown: Week 3

Sep 21, 2018

Our third Primetime slate of the season brings us two high total games with both of them coming in over 50 points. The Patriots head into Detroit as 6.5 point favorites with a total of 51.5, while Pittsburg heads into Tampa Bay to face Fitzpatrick’s Buccaneers as 1.5 point favorites.

Passing Games

Patriots

Coming off a tough loss against a difficult Jaguars defense, Tom Brady ($8,500 FD/$6,800 DK) will look to right the ship against a Lions defense that is 26th in schedule-adjusted fantasy points (aFPA) vs the quarterback. Tom Brady checks in as the top projected quarterback on the slate, but on a slate that is barren of value, he will be tough to fit into cash games. Brady’s number one target will be Rob Gronkowski ($8,100 FD/$7,300 DK), who is coming off a 2/15 game against the Jags. Don’t expect that to continue against a team that is 21st in aFPA vs the tight end. Gronk is far and away the best tight end option on the slate. The Lions limited mega-chalk, George Kittle, last week, but still allowed four catches for 44 yards and a touchdown on six targets last week to the position (with the TD going to Garret Celek). The Lions are 27th in aFPA against wide receivers, and may be without top CB Darius Slay (concussion). This is a bump to all wide receivers. The most reliable wide receiver for the Pats is Chris Hogan ($6,200 FD/$6,200 DK). After a disappointing week 1, he bounced back with two touchdowns against the vaunted Jaguars secondary last week. Hogan is a preferred target on FD, where his touchdown upside is better suited. He has only received five targets in each of the first two games. Phillip Dorsett ($5,900FD/$5,100 DK) has received 7 targets in each of the first two games but is difficult to trust. His price is close enough to other top options that he is nothing more than a GPP option. One of those reasons he is difficult to trust is newly acquired Josh Gordon ($6,500 FD/$5,400 DK). Gordon should eat into some of Dorsett’s snaps, making him more difficult to project. Unless news of a snap total for newly acquired Josh Gordon comes out, he is only a GPP dart throw. Although he is clearly one of the most talented wide receivers in the NFL, he has had less than a week to acclimate to the Patriots system