DFS Projected Ownership Analysis: Week 4

Sep 26, 2018

Leveraging ownership percentages is a crucial aspect of creating tournament lineups. In this article, I will be using the 4for4 metric GPP Leverage Scores to highlight players whose projected ownership is either too high or too low. You can get a complete explanation on how the metric works here, but in short, the leverage score takes projected ownership and compares it to an implied ownership. The projected ownership is the prediction of what percentage of lineups a particular player will be owned in. A player’s implied ownership is 4for4’s recommended ownership based on salary, point projection and positional scarcity, among other factors. Comparing the two ownership percentages can highlight players who 4for4 projections are higher or lower on relative to the field.

Players to Be Overweight On

Ryan Tannehill ($6,800 FD/$5,500 DK)

Ryan Tannehill has been uber-efficient in the first three games of 2018. He hasn’t thrown more than 28 passes in a game, though he still has thrown for multiple scores in every game. The new weapons added to the Dolphins’ receiving corps in Albert Wilson and Danny Amendola, along with the emergence of Jakeem Grant and the stellar play of Kenny Stills has provided quick-strike scoring. The Patriots rank 24th against quarterbacks in aFPA. Blake Bortles and Matthew Stafford both had their way with the Patriots’ secondary. In a game that I can easily see surpassing the current 47-point total, Tannehill could be required to push the ball downfield at a higher rate. Additionally, Tannehill has the ability to tack on rushing fantasy points to his total. The Patriots defense has allowed an additional three fantasy points in rushing production to quarterbacks through three weeks.

Tannehill currently projects to be owned between one and five percent with a leverage score of 1.56, which indicates rostering Tannehill as high as 7.5 percent. With a slew of quarterbacks in a similar price range as Tannehill, such as Matthew Stafford, Andy Dalton and Baker Mayfield, he makes for a great leverage play.