DFS Projected Ownership Analysis: Week 5

Oct 04, 2018

The Week 5 NFL DFS Projected Ownership Analysis article highlights discrepancies between 4for4 player projections and projected ownership.

Leveraging ownership percentages is a crucial aspect of creating tournament lineups. In this article, I will be using the 4for4 metric GPP Leverage Scores to highlight players whose projected ownership is either too high or too low. You can get a complete explanation on how the metric works here, but in short, the leverage score takes projected ownership and compares it to an implied ownership. The projected ownership is the prediction of what percentage of lineups a particular player will be owned in. A player’s implied ownership is 4for4’s recommended ownership based on salary, point projection, positional scarcity, among other factors. Comparing the two ownership percentages can highlight players who 4for4 projections are higher or lower on relative to the field.

Players to Be Overweight On

QB Carson Wentz ($7,500 FD/$5,800 DK)

The Minnesota Vikings haven’t been the prohibitive matchup they were last year. They currently rank 29th in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to the quarterback position. Wentz looked sharp last week, even drawing the praise of offensive coordinator Mike Groh. Wentz threw 50 times last week against a very solid Titans defense, completing 66 percent of those passes. Wentz has a full stable of weapons back at his disposal now that Alshon Jeffery is healthy along with Zach Ertz, Nelson Agholor and Dallas Goedert. The Eagles have a 24-point implied total and I’m confident this game will be a back-and-forth battle that has a chance to blow the 46.5-point game total out of the water. Both offenses are clicking and both defenses have looked underwhelming. Wentz' mobility last week made this decision even easier. He moved around very well and proved he can pick up fantasy points on the ground if forced.