Week 10 Picks for NFL Survivor Contests

This week we need to start with an important note: Now that we're entering the home stretch of the 2019 season, this will be our final weekly NFL survivor article for 4for4. We hope you have enjoyed reading about our data-driven survivor contest strategies.

If you'd like to get our recommended picks for your pool for the rest of the season, along with weekly writeups and access to data like public picking trends, we invite you to subscribe to our Football Survivor product. For a limited time, we're offering exclusive mid-season discounts for 4for4 readers.

With that, back to our regularly scheduled viewing of Survivor...

Last week, several of the top options survived, with close calls. Seattle was the closest, needing overtime to win against Tampa Bay at home. Roughly 17% of the public had the Seahawks. The biggest public elimination was the Packers (7%) losing to the Chargers, followed by the Browns and Jets (3% each). Overall, 86% of the public advanced.

Our recommendations were heavier on Buffalo (since we had advised generally saving them in Week 7 when the public was very heavy on the Bills), followed by a trio of options depending on pool size and type: Carolina, Cleveland and Dallas. The Cleveland loss was the biggest result for our recommendations, knocking out 17% of entries. Overall, our recommendations advanced 78% of the time in Week 9. For the full season, our survival rate is still up on the public (17% versus 16%) and just as importantly for winning pools going forward, our subscribers are set up with teams like San Francisco, Kansas City, Minnesota and Buffalo being more available. As you will see in the future value category below, those teams are valuable pieces to have.

Now let's get to the NFL Week 10 survivor pick analysis.

Week 10 NFL Survivor Pick Analysis

Our free analysis of weekly NFL survivor picks focuses on three factors you always need to consider in order to maximize your edge in survivor pools: win odds (how likely a team is to survive), pick popularity (what percentage of your pool you'd expect to pick a team) and future value (how valuable it is to save a team for use in a future week).

Just remember that varying rules and tiebreakers in survivor pools can have a big impact on your optimal picking strategy. For this article, we assume a 100-entry "standard rules" pool (one loss and you're out; you can only pick each team once) with no other rule tweaks like allowing strikes or buy-backs, forcing double picks late in the season, etc.

Data referenced below was current as of Wednesday morning and could change between posting time and kickoff time. Our product updates multiple times per day with the latest information.

Win Odds: Top Five Week 10 Picks

When it comes to win odds, higher is obviously better. All else being equal, you want to pick the team with the best likelihood of surviving.

Here are the five safest teams for NFL Week 10, according to the betting markets, as measured by their money line odds, which we translate into win odds (in parentheses):

1. New Orleans Saints (84%, 13-point favorite) vs. Atlanta Falcons
2. Indianapolis Colts (81%, 10.5-point favorite) vs. Miami Dolphins
3. Baltimore Ravens (81%, 10-point favorite) at Cincinnati Bengals
4. San Francisco 49ers (71%, 6-point favorite) vs. Seattle Seahawks
5. Kansas City Chiefs (71%, 6-point favorite) at Tennessee Titans

Win Odds Analysis

New Orleans tops the choices this week when it comes to safety, as Drew Brees has successfully returned and they draw an Atlanta team ranked 30th in points allowed and that has only seven sacks all season. Indianapolis draws Miami at home this week, so they are in the top tier of win odds, even though Jacoby Brissett’s status is still uncertain for Sunday (Brian Hoyer would start if Brissett can't go). Baltimore is also in the top tier, getting winless Cincinnati on the road.

San Francisco and Kansas City then make up the top of the next tier of options.

Pick Popularity

If you ignore win odds and future value, it's almost always better to pick a less popular team in a survivor pool. Diversifying your picks from the crowd sets up a scenario where your expected pool winnings can increase significantly if your pick wins and another popular pick loses.

Here are the five most popular survivor picks of Week 10 2019:

1. New Orleans Saints (45%) vs. Atlanta Falcons
2. Indianapolis Colts (40%) vs. Miami Dolphins
3. Baltimore Ravens (6%) at Cincinnati Bengals
4. Kansas City Chiefs (2%) at Tennessee Titans
5. Green Bay Packers (2%) vs. Carolina Panthers

Pick Popularity Analysis

New Orleans and Indianapolis have been little used to this point in survivor, which is why they are both very popular choices this week, basically splitting the votes and making up 85% of the public picks in Week 10. Baltimore has been a popular choice in at least three previous weeks, which is why their usage is far below the other two top choices.

Kansas City and Green Bay are coming in as the leading candidates for those avoiding the Saints and Colts this week and wanting to diversify from the crowd.

Future Value

The final element to consider when making a Week 10 survivor pick is future value. If you burn a great team this week, you don’t have that team available for future weeks, and even smaller survivor pools have a realistic chance of lasting deep into the season.

(Of course, the teams with high future value also tend to be the better teams, at least until later in the season when even great teams may not have many juicy matchups left.)

According to our numbers, here are the top five teams in future value entering this week for a 100-entry standard rules pool:

1. San Francisco 49ers (3.2)
2. Minnesota Vikings (2.3)
3. Baltimore Ravens (2.2)
4. Kansas City Chiefs (2.1)
5. Buffalo Bills (1.7)

(Note: The numbers in parentheses are a proprietary rating of future value we created, which is also impacted by factors such as pool size and expected pick popularity.)

Future Value Analysis

These numbers include only the teams playing this week, which is why New England does not appear.

The 49ers have the highest future value and will be a top win odds play next week when they host Arizona, and again in Week 15 against Atlanta. Minnesota gets Denver next week at home. Baltimore has the Jets in Week 15, while Kansas City still gets Oakland at home in Week 13 and Denver in Week 15.

The two most popular choices this week, New Orleans and Indianapolis, do not make the future value top-five list, which may help explain why both are very popular choices this week.

Get Our Week 10 Survivor Pick Recommendation

It's easy to just make a broad claim that "Team X is the best survivor pick of Week 10." In reality, it's nowhere near that simple, because the best pick for your survivor pool depends on factors such as your pool's size and rules and which teams you've already picked.

We built our NFL Survivor Picks product to do all of the number-crunching required to give you the best chance to win your survivor pool. You answer a few questions about your pool, and it provides customized pick recommendations using the latest matchup data, betting market odds and public picking trends from national survivor pool sites. It even generates an optimal survivor pick "portfolio" for you, if you're playing multiple entries in one or more pools.

Since 2017, subscribers to the product have reported nearly $1.5 million in survivor pool winnings. For a limited time, we're offering exclusive mid-season discounts for 4for4 readers.

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