Monday Night DFS Single-Game Breakdown: Packers at Vikings

Dec 23, 2019

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The Primetime games come to a head for the 2019 NFL season with the 11-3 Green Bay Packers traveling to take on long-time divisional rivals the 10-4 Minnesota Vikings. It's been a fun season with plenty of hits and an unfortunate number of misses (*cough* Brandin Cooks *cough*). I've enjoyed writing this column this season and hope that it has helped you in constructing your lineups.

While both teams have clinched playoff spots, there is home-field advantage at stake so both teams are sure to give it their best effort. With Dalvin Cook and Alexander Mattison out for the game, it becomes a question of what to do with Mike Boone. I'll answer those questions and more so let's get to the break down of the game and how we can find the edge to get you to the top of the leaderboards for the single-game slates on DraftKings and FanDuel.

Injuries

No notable injuries for the Packers
Dalvin Cook, MIN, RB - OUT
Alexander Mattison, MIN, RB - Questionable

The RB situation for the Vikings, is, of course, the big news here. While Mattison is listed as questionable, all reports are he will not play and we are projecting the game as such and analysis will be based on that assumption. If for some reason, Mattison does play, it's an obvious hit to the value of Mike Boone (who benefits hugely from this injury news).

Evaluation of Vegas Spread and Total

Minnesota -5.5 Over/Under 47

I'm a bit surprised the Vikings are this large of favorites given that Cook and Mattison are both likely out, but they are home and while the Packers have been winning games, they have been struggling while doing so. That said, it wouldn't surprise me to see the Packers come out on top in what I expect to be a very competitive game where points are scored. Let's look at the likely game flow given this spread and total and assign some probabilities to each potential outcome.