The Jarvis Landry Disrespect Must Stop

If I were Jarvis Landry’s social media consultant, I’d tell the Browns receivers to log on every day and own fantasy football analysts into oblivion.

We deserve it. Every year, most of us (me included) talk about Landry as an afterthought, even in PPR formats, where Landry has been a fantasy point slot machine his entire career. And as the giant in Twin Peaks says: It’s happening again.

Landry is being drafted as the WR31 one year after finishing as fantasy’s No. 12 wideout, a dozen spots higher than superstar teammate Odell Beckham, Jr. Landry saw a monster 26.6% target share in 2019, his role hasn’t changed since last season, the Cleveland offense will likely be better than it was in 2019, and we can still scoop up Landry as our WR3, WR4, or WR5, depending on how you approach the first few rounds. Easy game.

First, the zoomed-out view: every fantasy-relevant Browns player could benefit from an uptick in offensive pace in 2020, a spark departure from Freddie Kitchens’ dysfunctional, slow-motion approach in 2019.

New head coach Kevin Stefanski, who seems to be at least somewhat interested in how analytics can improve an offense, had his guys play with some pep in their proverbial step when he headed the Minnesota offense in 2019. Only four NFL offenses played slower than the Browns in neutral game situations last year, while the Vikings had the league’s 10th fastest offensive pace when game script was neutral. Cleveland’s offense wasn’t urgent even when facing a deficit of at least six points -- they ranked fifth slowest in those scenarios. Probably you won’t be stunned to learn Cleveland notched 60.8 offensive plays per game, ranking 26th in the league.

What could this mean for Landry? Well, if he maintains that big, fat 26% target share, a faster-paced offensive approach means he’ll see more than the 138 targets he got in 2019. That is, unless Cleveland is really good in 2020 and always in position to run the ball and bleed the clock. It also means a now-healthy OBJ could claw some of that target share from Landry this year and the latter wouldn’t lose all that much opportunity, if any. We know the team’s target distribution will be concentrated among its top two receivers. Landry’s opportunity in the Browns’ offense is as secure as any wideout you can find outside the first couple rounds. Landry drafters know their guy’s chances are locked in.

Beyond opportunity, those bullish on Landry in 2020 should keep in mind that regression could be coming on two fronts: touchdowns and yards per reception. His 14.1 yards per catch in 2019 was more than three yards higher than his career average, and around five yards higher than his career-low. His 2019 touchdown rate of 7.3% was 1.6% higher than his career rate.

It might not matter that much for 2020 thanks to Landry’s seventh-round ADP. Here’s how things would have shaken out in 2019 if Landry had notched his career yards per reception and touchdown rate. Remember, he was drafted as the WR31.

Yeah, you’re not getting the screaming value you did without the upticks in touchdown scoring and yards per catch, but you still have a locked-in fantasy WR2 at the draft day cost of a WR3. And an increase in offensive snaps, passes, and targets for Landry could offset much of what was lost in the career rate section of the above chart. Landry's schedule looks pretty sweet too, as 12 of the Browns' 16 matchups are rated as neutral or good for wide receivers, according to the 4for4 Hot Spots tool.

As we say on Living The Stream, you could definitely do worse.

Although it shouldn’t take a rocket scientist to tell us Landry is being drafted below his floor, I went ahead and took out a loan to pay a rocket scientist to look into the matter. She looked into it for three minutes and confirmed my suspicions. There you have it: rocket science says Jarvis Landry is well worth the seventh-round pick in 12-team leagues.