Sunday Night DFS Single Game Breakdown: Cowboys at Rams

Sep 11, 2020

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Sunday night's matchup between Dallas and LA presents a cornucopia of avenues by which one can build a viable single-game lineup, with opportunity hogs on both sides of the field.

And as per usual, it all depends on how you think the game will unfold.

Below is a breakdown of single-game DFS contests on FanDuel and DraftKings for the Week 1 Sunday Night Football matchup. Constructing single-game lineups requires some imagination, especially for large-field tournament purposes.

We want to create a lineup that reflects a certain kind of game script, choosing players who would thrive—or at least have the chance to thrive—if their teams got out to a lead or were left chasing points in the second half. There’s also the neutral script that doesn't tend to inflate opportunity for any one player or team. Understanding the likelihood of each scenario and piecing together a roster that would score a bunch of points in such a scenario is key to success in these single-game contests.

Remember: For the captain spot on DraftKings, the price (and fantasy points awarded) are multiplied by 1.5. On FanDuel, the prices are the same throughout, but the MVP slot receives 1.5 times the fantasy point value of the other roster spots.

Vegas Spread And Total

Sunday Night Football pits the Rams, a 2.5-point home dog, against Dallas in a game featuring the second highest over-under of Week 1 (51.5). The Cowboys come into Week ! with a nice, fat implied total of 27.0 points, while the Rams sport an implied total of 24.5.

Sunday night will mark the opening of the football temple known as SoFi Stadium, where no fans will enjoy the gaudy structure's christening. However, crowd noise will apparently be pumped in.

Potential Game Flow Scenarios

Here’s a brief rundown of which players would likely benefit the most from various game flow scenarios. This, for better or worse, is more art than science.

Close, low-scoring game

Ezekiel Elliott
Both defenses
Both kickers
Malcom Brown or Cam Akers

Close, high-scoring game

Blowout for home team

Blowout for away team

There are plenty of chances for us to build so-called onslaught rosters on DraftKings, which has more roster spots in its single-game contests. Stacking the Cowboys' main offensive weapons—Prescott, Elliott, and perhaps Gallup since he's $1,000 cheaper than Cooper—is possible if you run it back with low-priced Rams like Josh Reynolds or Van Jefferson, who might be a starter in three-receiver sets (though Reynolds is ahead of the rookie on the depth chart).

A Rams onslaught could be Goff, Woods, Higbee (more on him later), and Brown, if you believe he'll get first crack at carries since he's ahead of Akers on LA's depth chart. That would leave more than enough salary for Gallup and Lamb. You could also go with Cooper and Jarwin as the comeback plays on DraftKings.

Ideally, we don't want to have four players from the same team in our FanDuel single game lineups. A Dallas-centric construction (if you think they'll see lots of positive game script) would have to include Elliott, who gets force-fed in good game flow. You could throw in Prescott and Lamb, along with Higbee and Kupp or Woods as the run-back options.

FanDuel strategy predicated on good game script for LA should probably include one of the team's running backs (using a Rams back in the captain's spot would create a hugely volatile and unique lineup). Hopefully, we get more clarity on who might shoulder the backfield load in the next couple days. If you play Goff and Higbee in this lineup, you could have an excellent run back of Prescott and either Gallup or Cooper, who will likely see coverage from Jalen Ramsey. Gallup, meanwhile, will see primary coverage from the slightly more beatable Troy Hill.

Cheaper Stacking Options

There are going to be obvious stacking plays in every showdown slate. Quarterbacks with their WR1 and/or TE and/or WR2, a running back with their defense, and so on and so forth. Below are some cheap, volatile stacking options that could serve us well in large-field tournaments.

QB Jared Goff ($14,000 FD/$9,400 DK)/TE Tyler Higbee ($7,500 FD/$7,400 DK)

Last season, 26.2% of targets against Dallas went to tight ends. That was by far the highest rate in the league. Tight ends—elite and not-so-elite—saw consistent opportunity against the Cowboys, who allowed an eye-popping 6.5 tight end receptions per game. My eyes: they've popped. Higbee saw massive opportunity once he snagged the Rams' starting job last year, and nothing that unfolded in training camp says Gerald Everett will claw back the starting gig in 2020. In a high scoring affair against a team that was continually attacked via the tight end in 2019, Higbee is in what the kids call a smash spot. In case you've somehow forgotten, Higbee caught a cool dozen passes for 111 yards against Dallas in their December matchup last year.

QB Dak Prescott ($16,000 FD/$10,800 DK)/WR CeeDee Lamb ($8,500 FD/$5,800 DK)

The explosive rookie receiver has been used across the Cowboys formation and deployed on a range of creative plays, such as jet sweeps and reverses, per Dallas beat writers. Though there's almost no universe in which Lamb out-targets Gallup or Cooper this season, he could still see a reasonable number of looks in the passing game along with some weekly rushing opportunity. Remember: Randall Cobb drew 83 targets as the team's WR3 in 2019. Lamb won't give you massive salary cap relief against LA, but he provides a relatively low-priced stacking option alongside Prescott. Nearly 62% of targets against LA last year went to receivers—among the top-10 highest rates in the NFL. Prescott's numbers against LA in their late-season matchup last year were depressed due to game flow. Dallas had a big lead and Prescott ended up with a mere 23 pass attempts. That probably won't happen here.

Low-Priced Volatile Plays

WR Van Jefferson, Rams ($6,000 FD/$1,600 DK)

The Athletic's Jourdan Rodrigue said last week that she expects Jefferson to start in three-wideout sets for the Rams. The good news is that Sean McVay runs a bunch of three-wideout sets, meaning Jefferson could see plenty of snaps and run plenty of routes to be a viable play in a game that should see a lot of scoring. The potential downside to using the rookie receiver this week is the veteran Reynolds retaining that third wideout spot alongside Kupp and Woods. Jefferson could be a (very) cheap source of targets though.

TE Blake Jarwin, Cowboys ($8,000/$6,200 DK)

Cowboys tight ends saw nine targets in last year's game against the Rams, accounting for 39% of Prescott's pass attempts that day. I don't see Jarwin as a overtly volatile option against the Rams; I do think his opportunity could be limited if Dallas gets out to a lead and hammers the Rams on the ground. In a back and forth affair, I like Jarwin to benefit from the attention LA's defense will give to shutting down the Cowboys' trio of receivers. Tight ends notched 6.68 targets per game against the Rams in 2019. Jarwin is very much in play, and probably won't be highly rostered.