FanDuel Week 17 Cash Game Picks and Strategy

Jan 02, 2021

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Week 17 is a different beast. Keeping up with news and information is as important as matchups and Vegas lines. Given the nature of the final week of the season, this analysis will focus more on expected playing time and team motivations and less on season-long matchup data than in week’s past. For cash games, it’s best to mostly stick with teams in a need-to-win scenario or players with concrete confirmation that they will play their normal complement of snaps.

Because of the high-variance nature of this week, DFS players might consider splitting slates. With seven early games and eight late games, there are essentially three slates that play like a full slate, including the main. Players can naturally hedge across the slates rather than forcing hedges on the full slate with suboptimal lineups. Positions below are broken up by early and late games but refer to full-slate pricing.

Before setting any lineups, be sure to track which teams are motivated this week.

Highly Motivated Teams

Early Slate: Dolphins, Ravens, Browns, Cowboys, Giants
Late Slate: Packers, Titans, Rams, Bears, Colts, Cardinals

Note: Baltimore and Miami both play in the earlier set of games so if either team loses, Tennessee could choose to rest some of its starters.

Quarterbacks

Early Games

While Ryan Tannehill and Josh Allen are top-three values at their position, the Titans could have a playoff spot locked up by the time their game starts and the Bills haven’t committed to playing time for their starters. That leaves Lamar Jackson ($9,000) as the lone cash game consideration among the current top three values at the position. Over the last month, Jackson is the QB2—he’s run for 83 yards per game in that span while posting a 2019-esque 9.8% touchdown rate. Baltimore should easily punch their playoff ticket as 13-point favorites with a 28.5-point implied total.