Yahoo! Week 14 $150K Baller and Cash Game Strategy

Dec 11, 2020

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Whether you are playing in the biggest tournament of the week on Yahoo or prefer to play in smaller GPPs, there are some general GPP strategies that you can implement in any size tournament. These concepts include stacking, finding pivots off of popular players, and targeting players that won’t be on many rosters. While it’s important to implement these into your lineup-building approach, the foundation of any tournament lineup is a solid core, usually players that you would use in cash games.

Stacks to Target

QB Aaron Rodgers, Packers ($36)

WR Davante Adams, Packers ($39)

WR Marvin Jones, Lions ($16)

Green Bay’s 31.5-point implied total is the highest of Week 14 and this stack projects for the highest ceiling of its kind according to 4for4’s stack value report. Almost all of the Packers’ upside comes from Aaron Rodgers and his passing efficiency—his 8.7% touchdown rate leads the league by a wide margin and he’s one of four quarterbacks averaging over eight yards per attempt.

When active, Davante Adams has seen a third of Rodgers’s targets, and no receiver has more scoring upside, with an expected touchdown rate (xTD) of 0.62 per game. That touchdown expectation is boosted heavily by Adams’s usage near the goal line. He is the only player with at least 20 red zone targets this season and his 16 looks inside the 10 also lead the league.

Running it back with Marvin Jones balances out the Packers’ high salaries while betting on volume and upside in what should be a pass-heavy game script for the Lions as 7.5-point underdogs. Over the last month, Jones is averaging 10 targets per game—including 12 in each of his last two games—and leads the league in air yards.

QB Matt Ryan, Falcons ($29)

WR Calvin Ridley, Falcons ($27)

WR Keenan Allen, Chargers ($30)

This is the most intriguing game to load up on for game stacks. The over/under currently sits at 49.5 and the spread is only 2.5 in favor of Atlanta. Over the last six weeks, both teams have thrown at a top 10 rate in neutral game script while both defenses rank in the bottom five in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks. These teams have been especially bad at defending the deep ball—the Falcons have allowed the second-most completions on passes 20 or more yards downfield while the Chargers have allowed the fifth-most.

Keenan Allen is near the top of the league in target share and only four teams allow more years per target to wide receivers in the slot than Atlanta. With Julio Jones out, Ridley should see an increased target share. Running it back with Mike Williams or Hunter Henry, instead of Allen, makes sense for both salary relief and for the sake of a more unique lineup for those that want to use this game in multiple lineups.

Contrarian Plays to Target

RB Myles Gaskin, Dolphins ($19) vs Chiefs

In Gaskins’s first game back from injury, he immediately returned to his workhorse role with 23 touches on 71% of Miami’s snaps. As a 7.5-point underdog, however, his rostered rate should come in below 10%. If the Dolphins are able to keep the game even relatively close, it would likely be in a high-scoring affair which would mean a big game for Gaskin—the Chiefs rank 25th in schedule-adjusted point allowed to running backs. Gaskin is usable in lineups that stack the Chiefs side of the ball, but he also offers leverage off of Kansas City players as a one-off play in any lineup.

WR Mike Evans, Buccaneers ($30) vs Vikings

This is one of the more stackable games on the slate, but Tampa Bay’s diluted target share since Antonio Brown’s arrival means that most Buccaneers should draw relatively low rostered percentages. Over the last month, Evans’s expected touchdown rate of 0.95 per game is by far the highest in the league—he’s seen a third of Tampa Bay’s air yards on 23% of targets and no team has thrown at a higher rate in neutral game script in that span. This salary range is full of receivers that should be very popular, making Evans a great salary pivot even when not used in Vikings/Bucs stacks.

TE Eric Ebron, Steelers ($18) @ Bills

This game has sneaky shootout potential despite the Steelers’ great defense—the over/under currently sits at 48 and the spread is just one. Ebron will offer a low rostered rate in an offense that has thrown at the highest rate in neutral game script this season. Over the last month, Ebron’s 8.8 target average and six red-zone targets—the most at his position in that span—has produced a 0.44 expected touchdown rate, the second-highest among tight ends. Buffalo has struggled to defend the middle of the field this season and rank 29th in schedule-adjusted points allowed to tight ends.

Cash Game Strategy

The backbone of my cash game approach is 4for4’s proprietary value metric, which goes beyond simple point per dollar projections. That value calculation extends to a player’s odds of hitting cash game value based on their implied volatility according to their floor, median and ceiling projections.

The biggest value boosts this week can come from Carolina and Las Vegas. If Josh Jacobs is out again, Devontae Booker will be in consideration for cash lineups despite the tough matchup against the Colts. Christian McCaffrey’s status can swing the slate—if he plays, he has the highest floor in the league; if he’s out, Mike Davis will be this week’s top point-per-dollar value. COVID and injury concerns leave D.J. Moore’s and Curts Samuel’s status uncertain. Robby Anderson or Samuel could end up as cash game plays.