Thursday Night DFS Single Game Breakdown: Bengals at Browns

Sep 16, 2020

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We have a Thursday night special this week, pitting the terrible Browns against the cursed Bengals. Why does it seem like these teams play six times a year?

The correlation stacks aren't so clear in this one—a lot of players on both sides of the ball could benefit from overtly positive or negative game script. That kind of uncertainty makes single-game tournaments even more appealing than they usually are.

Below is a breakdown of single-game DFS contests on FanDuel and DraftKings for the Week 2 Thursday Night Football matchup. Constructing single-game lineups requires some imagination, especially for large-field tournament purposes.

We want to create a lineup that reflects a certain kind of game script, choosing players who would thrive—or at least have the chance to thrive—if their teams got out to a lead or were left chasing points in the second half. There’s also the neutral script that doesn't tend to inflate opportunity for any one player or team. Understanding the likelihood of each scenario and piecing together a roster that would score a bunch of points in such a scenario is key to success in these single-game contests.

Remember: For the captain spot on DraftKings, the price (and fantasy points awarded) are multiplied by 1.5. On FanDuel, the prices are the same throughout, but the MVP slot receives 1.5 times the fantasy point value of the other roster spots.

Vegas Spread And Total

This Thursday nighter sports a 43-point over-under. The home-team Browns come in as six-point favorites with an implied total of 24.5 points. The Bengals have an implied total of 18.5 points—the fifth-lowest of Week 2. Cleveland's implied total is surprisingly high for an offense that looked utterly inept against Baltimore in Week 1. But maybe that was a world-beater taking on a mediocre team with no chance of keeping pace.