Monkey Knife Fight Plays: Week 9
Week 8 recap: Week 8 wound up being our worst week yet. Both Marquise Brown and A.J. Brown failed to get anything going despite great matchups. Both were also outproduced massively by their team's respective No. 2 wideouts, Willie Snead and Corey Davis. Lamar Jackson hit the over on his rushing yards by a narrow margin, busting our under. As I warned he could, Ben DiNucci locked in on Dalton Schultz. We knew there was a possibility since he is a new quarterback without much defined chemistry. Turns out Schultz was DiNucci's guy, as the quarterback targeted him eight times on 40 attempts—6 of DiNucci's 21 completions went to Schultz. Keep the faith as there will be better weeks in the near future for our Monkey Knife Fight plays.
For those reading this column for the first time, we scrape Monkey Knife Fight’s contests against our projections. I'll go through 10 plays we feel confident in exceeding (More Than) or failing to reach (Less Than) MKF's projections by the percent likelihood we give the outcome. The percentage you see in parentheses next to each player's name is the chance we believe the More Than or Less Than hits, according to our projections.
Most of our recommendations will be to side with the Less Than on MKF, as they know the majority of fantasy players like to root for more of everything—more points, more yards, more receptions, etc.—and set their numbers higher than a normal median projection. Be sure to check out our Discord server and the #mkf channel where I’ll post the full list of how our projections stack up against those of Monkey Knife Fight. On to Week 9…
Editor's Note: Open a new MKF account and deposit at least $10 to get a free 4for4 subscription of your choice.
Before we dive in, a quick More or Less refresher:
More or Less - You will be drafting your team by choosing More or Less for a group of player statistics presented. You will be squaring off with your own predictions. Choose the coinciding number of tiers correctly to win the prize shown prior to entry.
Top Week 9 MKF More or Less Plays
Mike Gesicki, TE – Dolphins (74.2%)
- MKF Line: 3.5 receptions
- 4for4 Projection: 2.5 receptions
Gesicki’s season has been a roller coaster ride. He has four games with either zero or one reception, an 8/130/1 outing and a 5/91/0 outing. The highs are peaks of mountains while the lows are dark, desolate pits. With Tua Tagovailoa under center last week, Gesicki drew only two targets. While we can’t draw too much from one game, that’s all we have to go on for now. With Gesicki recording 4+ receptions in 2-of-7 games this season, I’m more than comfortable taking the Less Than in this spot.
Chase Claypool, WR – Steelers (69.6%)
- MKF Line: 4.5 receptions
- 4for4 Projection: 3.7 receptions
With Diontae Johnson practicing in full on Wednesday, Claypool will slide back in the pecking order behind both JuJu Smith-Schuster and Johnson. Claypool, James Washington and Eric Ebron will compete for targets behind them. Claypool also only has 5+ receptions in just 2-of-7 games this season. His two blow-up games came in contests where Diontae Johnson was out of the lineup.
Diontae Johnson, WR – Steelers (66.9%)
- MKF Line: 3.5 receptions
- 4for4 Projection: 4.9 receptions
A lot of the analysis above relates here. When Johnson has played, he leads the team in target share and has been their No. 1 receiver. Monkey Knife Fights line is far too low for a player who tentatively looks to be fully healthy.
Jonathan Taylor, RB – Colts (66.9%)
- MKF Line: 52.5 rushing yards
- 4for4 Projection: 43.7 rushing yards
Taylor was getting the majority of the work last week in the first half but was either banged up or benched in the second half—had only one touch the last half of the game. Following the game, Philip Rivers said Taylor was “knicked up,” but the running back went on to practice in full on Wednesday. It seems like Taylor was playing poorly so they made an excuse to bench him. In this spot against a stout Baltimore run defense, I'm very comfortable riding the Less Than here.
Darren Waller, TE – Raiders (65.6%)
- MKF Line: 4.5 receptions
- 4for4 Projection: 6.5 receptions
This is at least a half reception off of what the line should be. Waller has 5+ receptions in 6-of-7 games this season, with the only outlier being a matchup against Bill Belichick and the Patriots, who notoriously take away an opponent's best weapon. Waller should end up with 5-to-7 receptions in this spot.
Zach Pascal, WR – Colts (65.3%)
- MKF Line: 3.5 receptions
- 4for4 Projection: 2.9 receptions
We were on this last week and are hopping back on the train. Pascal wound up with just three receptions last week. He has now caught three or fewer receptions in 6-of-7 games this season. He also played a three-week low in snap share (75%). With the potential re-emergence of rookie Michael Pittman, we could see Pascal play a decreased role.
Russell Gage, WR – Falcons (65%)
- MKF Line: 3.5 receptions
- 4for4 Projection: 4.8 receptions
With Calvin Ridley very likely to be out, this line is about a reception too low. It will very likely be Julio Jones, Gage and Olamide Zaccheaus playing the majority of snaps, so getting Gage to record 4+ receptions is a great play.
Alvin Kamara, RB – Saints (63.7%)
- MKF Line: 7.5 receptions
- 4for4 Projection: 7.3 receptions
I have to give some caution here. If Michael Thomas inexplicably sits out again, I wouldn’t take this play. If Michael Thomas does play, this is one of my favorite plays on the board. Most of the time when Thomas does play, Kamara’s reception line is usually around 5-to-5.5
Dontrelle Inman, WR – Football Team (75.4%)
- MKF Line: 3.5 receptions
- 4for4 Projection: 2.4 receptions
Inman played just 29% of the snaps in Week 7, failing to record a single target. Taking a step back and looking at his season as a whole, he has less than four receptions in 5-of-7 games he’s played. The Washington Football Team also gets Steven Sims Jr. back from injured reserve, and he should take targets away from Inman. Inman is currently doubtful, but if he does play, this play is a cinch.
DeVante Parker, WR – Dolphins (62.5%)
- MKF Line: 57.5 receiving yards
- 4for4 Projection: 51 receiving yards
Parker saw just two targets from rookie quarterback Tua Tagovailoa last week on just 59% of the snaps. I don’t think he was injured as the Dolphins were coming out of the bye. Preston Williams’s snap rate is something to look out for as he played 90% of the snaps. If Parker continues to be the No. 2 receiver in routes and snaps we need to treat him as such in Monkey Knife Fight games. I like the Less Than here, even with our projections close to his line.
Thanks for reading and If you have any questions feel free to reach out to me on Twitter @ConnorAllenNFL or on Discord.
Editor's Note: The More or Less plays and projections were available at the time of this article being published. Please refer to MKF for the most up-to-date offerings.
