Thursday Night DFS Single Game Breakdown: Packers at 49ers

Nov 05, 2020

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You could play single-game DFS contests for a century and never find what we have for Thursday night: a bunch of starters available for the absolute stone-cold minimum, or close to it.

A.J. Dillon and Jamaal Williams will be inactive for this matchup against the Niners, leaving hybrid player Tyler Ervin and practice squad running back Dexter Williams as the top two guys on Green Bay's depth chart. Brandon Aiyuk and Kendrick Bourne have been declared out after being placed on the COVID-19 list. Deebo Samuel is hurt and on the COVID-19 list. George Kittle will miss most of the rest of the season.

The lineup possibilities are endless, and full of potential pitfalls. Whatever happens, you're going to leave gobs of salary on the table.

Below is a breakdown of single-game DFS contests on FanDuel and DraftKings for the Week 9 Thursday Night Football matchup. Constructing single-game lineups requires some imagination, especially for large-field tournament purposes.

We want to create a lineup that reflects a certain kind of game script, choosing players who would thrive—or at least have the chance to thrive—if their teams got out to a lead or were left chasing points in the second half. There’s also the neutral script that doesn't tend to inflate opportunity for any one player or team. Understanding the likelihood of each scenario and piecing together a roster that would score a bunch of points in such a scenario is key to success in these single-game contests.

Update: Jordan Reed is expected to be activated from injured reserve and play Thursday against the Packers. He's going to have a limited role, making Ross Dwelley the better single game DFS option.

Remember: For the captain spot on DraftKings, the price (and fantasy points awarded) are multiplied by 1.5. On FanDuel, the prices are the same throughout, but the MVP slot receives 1.5 times the fantasy point value of the other roster spots.

Vegas Spread And Total

The over/under for this game has dropped by 2.5 points since Monday due to George Kittle officially being out for Thursday (and perhaps the rest of the regular season). The Packers are 5.5-point road favorites with an implied total of 27.5 points. The 49ers have seen their implied total go from 24.25 to 20.25 thanks to their laundry list of injuries and virus cases. That this game will be played is farcical. No matter—we must make our lineups.