NBA Best Bets: Riding With the Cavaliers
Happy Friday! I’m Alex Christenson and welcome to my first 4for4 article. A few times a week I’ll be helping you prep for the night’s NBA slate and share any wagers I’ve placed. It’s a hectic time of the year with trade demands, late injury announcements, and a jam-packed schedule for some teams that make almost every game a bad scheduling spot. It will be a bumpy road, but I know we can find value and winners along the way, so let’s get to it. As this is my first article, there will be more exposition and introduction, so don’t be too nervous if this seems a little long. We’ve got seven games in our third night back from the All-Star break. Let’s see how the market looks.
Projections for March 12, 2021
| Projection Based on Full Season | Projection Based on Last 10 Games | Odds | ROI Season to Date | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Road Streak |
Back to Back? | 3rd Game in 4 Days? | OFF Rtg | Pace | Team | Spread & Total | EFG% | TO% | OREB% | FT Rate | Oliver % | OFF Rtg | Pace | Team | Spread & Total | EFG% | TO% | OREB% | FT Rate | Oliver % | Spread | Total | Team Total | Opener Spread Units | Closer Spread Units | Opener Over Units | Closer Over Units | |
| CLE | 0 | No | No | 108.86 | 101.89 | 110.92 | 2.73 | 54.7% | 13.9% | 23.9% | 18.5% | 32.9% | 111.85 | 102.45 | 114.60 | 2.10 | 55.9% | 13.0% | 49.9% | 18.0% | 38.3% | 7.5 | 229 | 110.75 | (3.55) | (7.36) | (1.64) | (8.27) |
| NOP | 0 | Yes | No | 111.14 | 102.25 | 113.65 | 224.57 | 55.1% | 12.3% | 23.3% | 20.8% | 32.9% | 113.19 | 103.11 | 116.70 | 231.30 | 55.6% | 11.8% | 52.9% | 21.3% | 39.0% | 118.25 | (6.45) | (8.36) | 14.55 | 13.64 | ||
| PHI | 1 | Yes | No | 111.47 | 104.97 | 117.01 | (5.46) | 55.2% | 12.9% | 22.5% | 24.1% | 33.4% | 109.66 | 103.40 | 113.39 | (0.37) | 52.8% | 11.1% | 44.7% | 22.7% | 36.2% | -5 | 234.5 | 119.75 | (3.64) | 3.09 | (2.64) | 2.09 |
| WAS | 1 | No | No | 104.99 | 106.26 | 111.56 | 228.57 | 52.0% | 13.0% | 19.9% | 21.8% | 31.3% | 107.43 | 105.20 | 113.02 | 226.41 | 53.8% | 13.7% | 46.9% | 22.5% | 37.7% | 114.75 | (0.64) | (0.64) | (0.64) | (0.64) | ||
| DEN | 4 | No | No | 111.49 | 102.14 | 113.87 | (1.20) | 56.4% | 13.2% | 20.6% | 19.9% | 32.9% | 109.52 | 102.10 | 111.81 | 0.88 | 55.5% | 13.6% | 49.3% | 19.5% | 38.4% | -3.5 | 227.5 | 115.5 | (2.64) | (4.55) | 3.09 | 6.00 |
| MEM | 0 | No | No | 109.19 | 103.19 | 112.67 | 226.55 | 53.3% | 12.3% | 24.0% | 19.7% | 32.1% | 108.49 | 103.88 | 112.70 | 224.51 | 52.5% | 11.8% | 47.7% | 20.1% | 36.5% | 112 | 2.27 | 1.36 | (5.36) | (4.36) | ||
| ORL | 1 | Yes | No | 106.34 | 102.08 | 108.55 | 4.24 | 52.5% | 11.9% | 20.7% | 16.9% | 30.6% | 106.43 | 101.59 | 108.12 | 2.61 | 51.9% | 11.6% | 43.6% | 17.5% | 35.0% | 6.5 | 219.5 | 106.5 | (6.45) | (3.55) | (6.45) | (1.64) |
| SAS | 1 | No | No | 110.18 | 102.37 | 112.79 | 221.33 | 54.0% | 10.7% | 19.3% | 17.4% | 30.7% | 109.27 | 101.33 | 110.72 | 218.84 | 53.7% | 10.9% | 46.9% | 17.7% | 36.2% | 113 | 1.36 | 2.36 | (4.36) | (4.36) | ||
| MIA | 0 | Yes | No | 107.90 | 102.43 | 110.52 | (0.79) | 54.5% | 13.6% | 20.2% | 21.1% | 32.4% | 113.47 | 100.86 | 114.44 | (8.52) | 55.2% | 11.2% | 44.1% | 15.9% | 36.1% | -2.5 | 220.5 | 111.5 | (3.55) | (6.45) | (7.36) | (4.55) |
| CHI | 0 | Yes | No | 105.56 | 103.94 | 109.72 | 220.24 | 53.2% | 13.8% | 20.2% | 19.3% | 31.6% | 104.59 | 101.27 | 105.92 | 220.36 | 54.5% | 15.3% | 48.9% | 17.0% | 38.0% | 109 | 3.18 | 2.27 | 1.27 | 3.18 | ||
| HOU | 1 | Yes | No | 103.75 | 103.15 | 107.02 | 7.62 | 50.1% | 11.3% | 20.8% | 18.8% | 29.8% | 105.48 | 104.10 | 109.80 | 8.68 | 50.8% | 11.7% | 45.0% | 21.6% | 35.5% | 17 | 226.5 | 104.75 | (11.18) | (12.09) | (9.27) | (10.18) |
| UTA | 4 | No | No | 112.01 | 102.35 | 114.64 | 221.66 | 55.8% | 13.3% | 23.8% | 20.8% | 33.5% | 114.61 | 103.38 | 118.48 | 228.28 | 57.5% | 12.8% | 46.7% | 19.7% | 38.5% | 121.75 | 12.64 | 13.64 | (0.73) | (1.64) | ||
| IND | 0 | No | No | 105.39 | 102.05 | 107.55 | 0.80 | 52.6% | 12.6% | 20.1% | 17.9% | 30.9% | 106.42 | 102.32 | 108.90 | (1.29) | 53.4% | 13.1% | 47.1% | 20.1% | 37.1% | 4.5 | 217 | 106.25 | (9.18) | (8.27) | 8.91 | 4.18 |
| LAL | 1 | No | No | 106.88 | 101.37 | 108.34 | 215.89 | 53.6% | 13.7% | 22.3% | 19.6% | 32.3% | 106.22 | 101.31 | 107.61 | 216.50 | 53.8% | 14.3% | 47.4% | 19.9% | 37.6% | 110.75 | (5.55) | (3.64) | (9.36) | (9.36) | ||
LEGEND
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EFG% (Effective Field Goal Percentage)= (FG + 0.5 * 3P)/FGA
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TOV% (Turnover Percentage) = TOV/(FGA + 0.44 * FTA + TOV)
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OREB% = ORB / (ORB + Opp DRB)
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FT Rate = FT/FGA
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Oliver % = Shooting (40%) + Turnovers (25%) + Rebounding (20%) + Free Throws (15%)
The above is what I look at each day while handicapping. To be honest, it’s not the most intricate model, but it’s been a great guidepost for me and you’ll see how I use it in the below game previews. The first section shows us how many games the team has played on the road in a row, if they're playing a back-to-back game, and if it’s the third game for the team in four nights. I project a score for each team based on the full season to date and the last 10 games the team has played as well as each of the Four Factors (shooting, turnovers, rebounding, free throws). These are adjusted based on the best injury information available. Next are the lines for each game at the time of writing, followed by the net profit of each team on the spread and on overs in that team’s games if you flat bet one unit on each all season. For example, you’d be down 7.36 units if you blindly bet Cleveland’s closing spread and down 1.64 units if you blindly bet the over at opening in all of Cleveland’s games.
Best NBA Bet of the Day (March 12, 2021)
Cleveland Cavaliers +7.5 at New Orleans Pelicans
Andre Drummond has played his last game as a Cavalier and I wonder if we can say the same for Kevin Love. He’s technically been out with a calf injury and is listed as questionable for tonight’s contest, but I get the feeling he’s on his way out as Cleveland embraces the youth movement. Unless you see either of these guys physically on a basketball court in a Cavaliers jersey, assume they are not on this team when handicapping. In real injury news, Darius Garland is questionable with a groin injury and I’m projecting him to be out, but Larry Nance Jr. is back from a hurt finger. The Pelicans are missing only J.J. Redick.
I have this game much closer than the 7.5-point spread and things look even better over the more recent time frame. Although I think my projected spread of 2.0 is understated, there’s still an edge of at least 2.5 points here. New Orleans is 3-16 as a favorite this season (below .500 straight up in those games). The Pelicans closed -8 against an inferior Minnesota team last night and lost by 30 points. I think the market is overvaluing this team and I’ll likely be going against them until things adjust.
The Pelicans usually enjoy a big advantage on the glass. They are one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the league and enjoy a few extra shots a game as a result. Cleveland is one of the better teams in defensive rebounding and the return of Nance Jr. will only help this situation. Collin Sexton should be the best guard on the floor and things will get better if Garland is able to play. Zion Williamson will be the best player on the court, but Cleveland has enough rim protection and rebounding to keep him at bay.
We’ve got the rest spot advantage with New Orleans on a back-to-back, technical factors favor us, and I like the matchup from a basketball perspective.
Risk: 1.1 units on the Cleveland Cavaliers +7.5 on FanDuel to win 1 unit.
Quick Slate Rundown (March 12, 2021)
*All lines are from FanDuel at the time of publication.
Washington Wizards +5 vs. Philadelphia 76ers
I like Washington at this number, but I can’t place a bet until Bradley Beal is announced to be playing. The number is on the move, so I might not get the chance to do that, but if Beal is in and +4.5 or better is still around, I’ll be grabbing some of that.
Denver Nuggets -3.5 at Memphis Grizzlies
I lean Denver here, but with Gary Harris out and both Paul Millsap and JaMychal Green listed as questionable, the roster is likely too thin to compete with Memphis’s depth. The Grizzlies have also been playing better as of late and are a team I expect to have a strong rest of the season.
San Antonio Spurs -6.5 vs. Orlando Magic
No DeMar DeRozan or LaMarcus Aldridge for San Antonio, and Orlando is a complete mess. If you have to bet on it, maybe an over, but don’t bet on this game.
Miami Heat -2.5 at Chicago Bulls
Miami might look attractive at that price, but Bam Adebayo is out and you cannot bet on a Heat team without him. He is the most important member of the Heat.
Utah Jazz -17 vs. Houston Rockets
This was 13.5/14 for a few hours while I was sleeping like an idiot. Utah has been the best team so far this season and Houston just keeps losing players and games by large margins. I would have played Utah -14, but I can’t lay 17 points.
Los Angeles Lakers -4.5 vs. Indiana Pacers
The Lakers and Pacers are two teams I have been fading and I can’t decide who I want to fade more in this matchup. The Lakers are not the same team without Anthony Davis and Indiana entered the All-Star break having lost five of their last six games. It’s just a mess.
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