NBA Best Bets: A Totals-ly Amazing Saturday Slate
Well, the Cavaliers let us down in a pretty big way yesterday. Despite expectations, they had a bad night on the boards, giving up 19 offensive rebounds to the Pelicans, while only grabbing five themselves. That’s a huge advantage for any team. Oh, and scoring only nine points in the third quarter didn’t help. Onward and upward! We’ve got a full slate of Saturday night hoops, and we’re even lucky enough to have a 2:00 p.m. ET matinee game! Let’s dive into the schedule, look at the betting markets, and see where we might find some value.
Projections for March 13, 2021
| Projection Based on Full Season | Projection Based on Last 10 Games | Odds | ROI Season to Date | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Road Streak |
Back to Back? | 3rd Game in 4 Days? | OFF Rtg | Pace | Team | Spread & Total | EFG% | TO% | OREB% | FT Rate | Oliver % | OFF Rtg | Pace | Team | Spread & Total | EFG% | TO% | OREB% | FT Rate | Oliver % | Spread | Total | Team Total | Opener Spread Units | Closer Spread Units | Opener Over Units | Closer Over Units | |
| NYK | 1 | No | No | 105.15 | 100.01 | 105.16 | (2.17) | 53.4% | 12.0% | 20.8% | 18.7% | 31.4% | 104.43 | 100.04 | 104.48 | (1.50) | 52.7% | 12.6% | 49.2% | 19.5% | 37.0% | -5.5 | 209 | 107.25 | 1.18 | 2.09 | (9.36) | (10.27) |
| OKC | 0 | No | No | 102.26 | 100.71 | 102.99 | 208.15 | 52.3% | 12.4% | 18.0% | 20.1% | 30.6% | 103.12 | 99.87 | 102.98 | 207.46 | 52.2% | 12.4% | 47.3% | 18.9% | 36.3% | 101.75 | 3.09 | 3.09 | (6.45) | (4.45) | ||
| DET | 3 | No | No | 107.49 | 101.04 | 108.61 | 6.12 | 53.1% | 12.6% | 22.5% | 18.7% | 31.7% | 104.51 | 99.57 | 104.06 | 8.73 | 51.8% | 12.8% | 45.9% | 17.5% | 35.7% | 11.5 | 228 | 108.25 | 0.27 | 1.27 | (3.55) | (2.64) |
| BKN | 0 | No | No | 113.85 | 100.77 | 114.73 | 223.34 | 56.3% | 12.1% | 22.6% | 20.8% | 33.2% | 113.27 | 99.57 | 112.79 | 216.85 | 55.3% | 10.8% | 48.5% | 19.3% | 37.4% | 119.75 | 2.09 | 2.09 | 5.00 | 9.73 | ||
| MIL | 0 | No | No | 113.72 | 105.82 | 120.34 | (6.61) | 56.9% | 12.6% | 23.1% | 19.3% | 33.4% | 119.43 | 103.67 | 123.81 | (15.48) | 60.6% | 12.5% | 42.6% | 18.7% | 38.7% | -11 | 239.5 | 125.25 | (4.55) | (2.64) | 6.00 | 3.09 |
| WAS | 0 | Yes | Yes | 106.66 | 106.62 | 113.72 | 234.06 | 52.7% | 12.2% | 19.8% | 20.1% | 31.1% | 102.96 | 105.21 | 108.33 | 232.14 | 51.2% | 12.5% | 46.1% | 20.0% | 35.8% | 114.25 | (1.64) | (1.64) | (1.64) | (1.64) | ||
| TOR | 0 | No | No | 109.52 | 103.16 | 112.98 | (0.14) | 54.8% | 13.1% | 21.9% | 19.1% | 32.4% | 111.13 | 102.99 | 114.46 | 2.35 | 58.8% | 14.6% | 44.5% | 17.6% | 38.7% | 2 | 229.5 | 113.75 | (2.64) | (2.64) | (0.73) | 4.09 |
| CHA | 0 | No | No | 109.40 | 103.15 | 112.85 | 225.83 | 54.5% | 13.9% | 23.5% | 21.6% | 33.2% | 111.93 | 104.36 | 116.81 | 231.27 | 55.9% | 13.9% | 48.5% | 23.5% | 39.1% | 115.75 | 2.18 | 0.27 | 1.27 | 3.18 | ||
| SAC | 0 | No | No | 110.19 | 102.99 | 113.48 | 2.04 | 53.7% | 11.6% | 22.4% | 20.0% | 31.9% | 111.86 | 102.74 | 114.92 | 1.51 | 54.9% | 11.4% | 48.6% | 19.2% | 37.4% | 3.5 | 239.5 | 118 | (4.55) | (6.45) | 12.64 | 10.73 |
| ATL | 5 | No | No | 112.61 | 102.58 | 115.51 | 228.99 | 54.8% | 12.3% | 24.6% | 22.0% | 33.2% | 115.15 | 101.12 | 116.43 | 231.36 | 56.4% | 12.6% | 49.3% | 21.8% | 38.9% | 121.5 | (5.55) | (4.55) | (3.64) | (4.55) | ||
| POR | 0 | No | No | 111.49 | 102.14 | 113.87 | (0.15) | 54.1% | 12.0% | 23.9% | 19.8% | 32.4% | 111.47 | 102.32 | 114.06 | (1.07) | 54.2% | 12.2% | 46.8% | 19.6% | 37.0% | -4.5 | 233.5 | 119 | 0.27 | 1.18 | (2.64) | 3.09 |
| MIN | 1 | No | No | 109.45 | 103.91 | 113.72 | 227.60 | 53.4% | 11.7% | 22.9% | 18.0% | 31.6% | 108.12 | 104.50 | 112.99 | 227.05 | 52.1% | 11.5% | 44.1% | 17.5% | 35.2% | 114.5 | (7.36) | (9.27) | 1.18 | (0.73) | ||
| DAL | 1 | No | Yes | 111.05 | 101.45 | 112.66 | 2.56 | 54.3% | 11.6% | 22.1% | 19.8% | 32.0% | 117.08 | 99.03 | 115.95 | (0.90) | 57.5% | 11.2% | 46.9% | 19.7% | 38.1% | 2.5 | 226 | 111.75 | (6.45) | (6.45) | (2.64) | (2.64) |
| DEN | 5 | Yes | No | 113.80 | 101.25 | 115.22 | 227.88 | 56.7% | 11.7% | 21.4% | 18.4% | 32.6% | 115.27 | 99.81 | 115.05 | 231.00 | 58.0% | 11.7% | 46.5% | 16.3% | 37.9% | 114.25 | (3.64) | (5.55) | 2.09 | 5.00 | ||
| IND | 1 | Yes | No | 107.49 | 101.88 | 109.51 | 2.36 | 53.1% | 12.3% | 21.0% | 19.6% | 31.4% | 107.10 | 103.66 | 111.01 | 5.74 | 53.3% | 13.2% | 45.6% | 20.4% | 36.8% | 6.5 | 221 | 107.25 | (10.18) | (9.27) | 7.91 | 3.18 |
| PHX | 1 | No | No | 110.76 | 101.00 | 111.87 | 221.37 | 55.3% | 12.8% | 21.2% | 19.2% | 32.5% | 113.68 | 102.70 | 116.75 | 227.77 | 57.7% | 12.8% | 45.5% | 20.3% | 38.4% | 113.75 | 9.82 | 10.82 | (3.55) | (1.64) | ||
LEGEND
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EFG% (Effective Field Goal Percentage)= (FG + 0.5 * 3P)/FGA
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TOV% (Turnover Percentage) = TOV/(FGA + 0.44 * FTA + TOV)
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OREB% = ORB / (ORB + Opp DRB)
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FT Rate = FT/FGA
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Oliver % = Shooting (40%) + Turnovers (25%) + Rebounding (20%) + Free Throws (15%)
Best NBA Bets of the Day (March 13, 2021)
New York Knicks at Oklahoma City Thunder First Half Total Under 106 Points
The Knicks are missing two very important pieces tonight as they head to Oklahoma City without Derrick Rose and Mitchell Robinson. Nerlens Noel covers up some of what Robinson brings to the table, but the loss of Rose is huge for the Knicks. Their net rating drops by more than 18 when he’s off the court and the Knicks are 2-9 in games without Rose. The Thunder are missing their most important player in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. He’s far and away the best player on the roster and their driving force on offense.
You’ll see in the numbers above that my projections like the under in this spot and that’s before I even adjust for Rose and Gilgeous-Alexander not playing. Unfortunately, the full game total is 209 and dropping, which is not much of an edge. There is good news, the game starts at 2:00 p.m. ET—1:00 p.m. local time. Historically, these games start very slow and are low scoring as players struggle to adapt to the odd start time. NBA games typically start at 7:00 p.m. ET, six hours later than today’s game, which throws off sleep rhythms and warm up routines. To no surprise, first half unders have been great in these time slots, so let’s attack that instead.
Risk: 1.1 units on New York Knicks/Oklahoma City First Half under 106 on FanDuel to win 1 unit.
Denver Nuggets vs. Dallas Mavericks Game Total Over 226 Points
Things get a little better for the Nuggets tonight as they get Paul Millsap back, but they are still without JaMychal Green and Gary Harris. Harris is the more important of the two. He provides strong wing defense and some offensive punch while Nikola Jokic/Jamal Murray/Michael Porter Jr. leave the floor. The Mavericks have no one on the injury report—usually a good sign. Players go from probable to out regularly in the NBA, but I can’t remember the last time a big name went from off the injury report to out for the game.
This game presents a difficult spread to handicap. Is Millsap’s return enough to shore up Denver’s depth issues? Has Luka Doncic finally played himself into game shape after a slow start? Is Kristaps Porzingis okay and is he ready to defend Nikola Jokic? I don’t have good answers to any of those questions. I think Denver has more firepower and might be the side to play, but I say that with almost no confidence. Don’t fret, though, we have the total! My projections are showing more points than the listed total. Denver has been a good over team all year, and Dallas’s totals continue to rise as Porzingis gets more time on the floor. Looking at the matchup, Jokic should be able to get any look he wants and Doncic generally plays well against a Denver defense lacking stopping power. Both offenses are going to ask a lot of questions neither defense can answer.
Risk: 1.1 unit on Denver Nuggets/Dallas Mavericks over 226 on DraftKings to win 1 unit.
Phoenix Suns Team Total Over 114.5 Points
Phoenix is playing with a full deck tonight. Indiana continues to be without T.J. Warren, but they are expecting the return of Caris LeVert! I really meant that exclamation point. LeVert has had one of the most injury-riddled careers of anyone to ever play in the NBA. In 2018-19, he missed 42 games with a subtalar dislocation of the right foot (side note, how do you dislocate a foot?). In 2019-20, he missed two months of the season with a thumb injury. He has been sidelined this season since being traded in January with a mass on his kidney, which has since been successfully removed. He’s a gifted scorer and a lot of fun to watch, so I hope he’s finally healthy and ready to contribute because Indiana needs help.
Sticking with that idea, the Pacers have been awful as of late. They’ve lost six of their last seven games. Their offense and defensive ratings are both getting worse. LeVert should be a big help on offense, but I’m not ready to expect that in his first game back. Phoenix is laying 6.5 points, which looks reasonable to me. The LeVert unknown makes me queasy about backing the Suns on the spread.
There is another way to attack this spot—team total. The Suns’ team total is 113.5 points. They are averaging 114 points on the season—117 over their last 20 games. You can see in the projections above that I have them projected at over 116 points based on their last 10 games. Indiana’s defense has been average at best lately and the matchups in this contest should make things even more difficult for them. Malcolm Brogdon can only guard one of Devin Booker or Chris Paul.
Risk: 1.15 units on Phoenix Suns Team Total over 114.5 on FanDuel to win 1 unit.
Quick Slate Rundown (March 13, 2021)
*All lines are from FanDuel at the time of publication.
Brooklyn Nets -11 vs. Detroit Pistons
You’ll see above that my projections like Detroit and the under. Pay no attention to that. For whatever reason, my model loves every Nets under and every team playing the Nets. I can’t figure it out, so I try not to bet Nets games. That said, I like the under. I’m not going to bet it, but I like it. Detroit's offense is getting worse and the Nets finally seem to be slowing down, but I don’t bet Nets games. At least not in public.
Milwaukee Bucks -11 at Washington Wizards
This is a brutal schedule spot for Washington coming off a terrible performance against Philadelphia. Milwaukee continues to put up strong stats in mercurial performances this season. I lean Bucks minus the points, but I can’t trust them quite yet to cover such a big number. Washington has the guard play and shooting to cover big numbers late.
Charlotte Hornets -2 vs. Toronto Raptors
The Raptors are experiencing a quarantine nightmare with Fred VanVleet, OG Anunoby and Pascal Siakam all out tonight. The Hornets are playing with a full deck. At first glance, I was shocked at this number, but my projections agreed. The Raptors still have Kyle Lowry, Norman Powell, Chris Boucher, and enough decent players to hold things together. Maybe that’s enough? I’m confused.
Atlanta Hawks -3.5 vs. Sacramento Kings
This number landed pretty close to my projections. I looked at possibly betting an under, but betting the under in Kings games is a bad idea. Everything looks just about right to me. The only angle I will add is that a certain capper who’s in a contest with a tortoise is on Sacramento a few different ways. So, Hawks or pass—and it’s a pass for me.
Portland Trail Blazers -4.5 at Minnesota Timberwolves
My numbers show a little value on Minnesota, but not enough to get me to put hard earned money on the mess that is the Wooddogs. Maybe look at Damian Lillard overs and Karl Anthony-Towns overs? There’s just nothing from a full game, half, or quarter perspective that I like.
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