5 Late-Round Running Backs to Target in FFPC High Stakes Leagues

Football is back. Three glorious words we have been waiting for all offseason. The preseason obviously isn’t as exciting as the regular season but analyzing usage with the first team can help understand a player’s role and help project usage in the regular season. This article will focus on late-round running back targets in high stakes leagues. I consider late-round running backs to be those with an ADP outside of the top 100.

More High Stakes Targets: QBs

Gus Edwards

$350 ADP: 118th (RB44)/Main Event ADP: 110th(RB39)

The Ravens already gave us a sign of what an offense looks like with J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards dominating touches after Mark Ingram was inactive from Weeks 8-17 last season. In those games, Dobbins only out-touched Edwards 109 to 96. Edwards was actually the RB14 in PPR scoring from Weeks 13-17, even while Dobbins was breaking out. Most beat reporters expect a 60-40 split in favor of Dobbins, but even 40% of the running back touches give him a legitimate floor and standalone value in the league's best rushing offense. If Dobbins were to miss time, Edwards would instantly catapult into a weekly top-20 running back. At RB44, he’s a clear value and we have him projected as the RB35.

Malcolm Brown

$350 ADP: 195th (RB74)/Main Event ADP: 198th (RB68)

Malcolm Brown signed a two-year, $3.5 million contract with the Dolphins this offseason but with only $1.75 million guaranteed. This makes it essentially a one-year deal. I expect Brown’s ADP to skyrocket after his preseason start over Myles Gaskin against Chicago. I don’t think Gaskin was injured either because he played on both the first and third series, plus a few reps with Jacoby Brissett and the second team. The final snap count with the first team was 16-7 in favor of Brown. After the game, their coaching staff said they would all continue to rotate, including Salvon Ahmed. Brown and Gaskin will likely rotate as the 1A and 1B based on what we saw from their preseason usage and the comments. I don’t think Brown or Gaskin are very talented but both could see fantasy-viable usage if one were to outshine the others. In the double-digit rounds, I’m interested in Brown as a late-round pick. If his ADP creeps above that I’ll likely pass and pivot to the cheapest of Brown, Gaskin and Ahmed.

James Conner

$350 ADP: 106th (RB38)/Main Event ADP: 107th (RB39)

James Conner’s ADP has been buried after looking sluggish at times last season with the Steelers. A lot of his struggles stemmed from a lingering ankle injury and poor offensive line play. After signing with Arizona, Conner will compete with Chase Edmonds for playing time.

Even though I think it’s likely Edmonds soaks up a good portion of the passing down work, Conner has proven he is more than a capable pass-catcher as well, with 124 combined receptions the last three seasons. At the bare minimum, I expect Conner to receive goal-line work with the potential for much more if he outplays Edmonds. The coaching staff has been fairly non-committal on either of their roles this offseason leaving a lot of potential volatility in their usage compared to the expectation. That’s the type of situation I’m excited about buying in the later rounds. The Arizona Cardinals offense is also a potential goldmine for fantasy usage with dual-threat Kyler Murray at the helm and efficient offensive play all around.

Giovani Bernard

$350 ADP: 155th (RB54)/Main Event ADP: 151st (RB49)

Some of this involves a bit of conjecture but Tom Brady looked visibly frustrated last year at times when the ball would brick off Ronald Jones’s mitts. Giovani Bernard on the other hand is a seasoned pass-catcher who was specifically brought in for that role. He played on both third-downs in the first preseason game with Tom Brady in. As James White has shown us in the past, this type of role with Tom Brady can be extremely valuable when his team is playing from behind or in a two-minute drill. The biggest difference is Bernard is going as the RB55, whereas White would consistently go in the mid-to-late single-digit rounds in his time at New England. It’s probably not a perfect comparison but I think the upside exists as a bye-week fill-in or more in case of injury to the early-down backs.

Jamaal Wiliams

$350 ADP: 111th (RB42)/Main Event ADP: 110th (RB40)

I get that Jamaal Williams isn’t “good” by most analysts' standards but his role and situation are interesting. The coaching staff has already talked about Williams and D'Andre Swift as a 1-2 punch where they’ll ride the hot hand. I expect both players to dominate backfield usage. Everyone continues to talk up Swift’s projected usage in the passing game but the issue is Williams is also an accomplished pass-catcher himself. Williams posted an 88% catch rate on 35 targets last season and an 86% catch rate on 45 targets the year prior. This is another ambiguous situation where there’s not a lot of certainties about both Williams's and Swift’s roles heading into the season, which means drafting the cheaper one can be fruitful.

Just missed the cut: A.J. Dillon (ADP 97, RB36)

Honorable mention: Tevin Coleman (ADP 199, RB 58)