Yahoo! Week 12 $1 Million Baller and Cash Game Strategy
Whether you are playing in the biggest tournament of the week on Yahoo! or prefer to play in smaller GPPs, there are some general positional strategies that you can implement in any size tournament. These concepts include stacking, finding pivots off of popular players, and looking for leverage in other spots. While it’s important to implement these into your lineup-building approach, the foundation of any tournament lineup is a solid core, usually players that you would use in cash games.
Stacks to Target
QB Jimmy Garopollo, 49ers ($25)
WR Brandon Aiyuk, 49ers ($17)
TE George Kittle, 49ers ($24)
WR Adam Thielen, Vikings ($25)
Last week, we highlighted the Packers’ passing game in this space because the Vikings push their opponents into shootouts more than any other team in the league. Week 12 pits a 49ers offense that is just hitting their stride against that Minnesota team.
When adjusted for strength of schedule, The Vikings rank 27th in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks and dead last against wide receivers. While that matchup favors Deebo Samuel just as much as it does Brandon Aiyuk, Aiyuk has averaged a 26 % target share over his last four games, including 37% of targets in Week 11, and his salary is more than 50% lower than Samuel’s.
Since George Kittle has returned from injury, he too has averaged a 26% target share and he has converted all three of his end zone targets into touchdowns after converting just 3-of-23 in his career prior to Week 9. Teams have thrown 64% of the time against Minnesota once inside the 10-yard line, the highest rate against any defense in football.
On the Minnesota side, Adam Thielen comes at a $4 discount to teammate Justin Jefferson despite averaging 25% of targets since the Vikings bye week compared to 23% for Jefferson. San Francisco is vulnerable against short and intermediate passes (24th in QBR allowed on passes under 10 yards, 31st against passes 10–19 yards) but ranks in the top half of the league in QBR allowed on deep balls.
QB Joe Burrow, Bengals ($29)
WR Ja’Marr Chase, Bengals ($30)
WR Tee Higgins, Bengals ($16)
RB Najee Harris, Steelers ($31)
It’s no coincidence that this is the second heavy game stack featured this week. On a slate with just 10 games and relatively low implied point totals and point spreads, it makes sense to try to pinpoint a high-scoring game flow and load up on it.
While the Bengals are heavy favorites, matchups dictate targeting Cincinnati’s passing game and the Steelers backfield—Pittsburgh ranks 28th in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks and wide receivers while the Bengals are 25th against running backs.
Over the last six weeks, Cincinnati has thrown at a top-10 rate in neutral game script, but they have passed for just one touchdown in their last two games, contributing to Ja’Marr Chase topping this week’s Breakout Receiver Model. After busting as the chalk in Week 11, Tee Higgins should draw a relatively low rostered rate despite being a top-four ceiling value on 4for4.
Najee Harris is lapping the field when it comes to his usage and he is largely game script independent as one of three running backs averaging at least six targets per game this season.
QB Tyrod Taylor, Texans ($20)
WR Brandin Cooks, Texan ($13)
As the top values at their respective positions, Tyrod Taylor and Brandin Cooks are easily the best ceiling value stack according to 4for4’s Stack Value Reports. Houston faces a Jets defense that ranks last in total schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to opposing offenses and is the only team that 4for4 ranks outside the top 20 against every skill position.
On a slate with no team projected for 28 or more points, it makes sense to save salary on a stack in an offense that should be heavily concentrated between these two players. Taylor offers rushing upside with 27 yards per game on the ground and three total rushing touchdowns while Cooks still ranks in the top three in market share of air yards despite just three targets in Week 11. Down to just David Johnson and Rex Burkhead in their backfield, Houston should do most of their damage through the air (or with Taylor’s legs) against a New York team that faces the ninth-highest passing rate in neutral game script.
Cooks could get there in one play—only 13 players have more targets of 20+ air yards than Cooks and the Jets allow the sixth-highest QBR on such passes (SportsInfoSolutions).
Contrarian Plays to Target
RB Javonte Williams, Broncos ($20)
Prior to the Broncos’ Week 11 bye, Javonte Williams saw his highest snap share of the season, aided mostly by a fourth-down fumble from Melvin Gordon. As arguably the most elusive back in the league this season, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Williams’s role continue to grow against the Chargers’ run funnel defense. Los Angeles ranks in the top seven in schedule-adjusted half-PPR points surrendered to quarterbacks and wide receivers but 28th against running backs.
WR A.J. Brown, Titans ($19)
Brown has burned fantasy managers in recent weeks with Yahoo totals of 4.2, 2.3, and 4.8 in his last three games. Now his salary is the lowest it’s been all season, down from a peak of $31. Even with the discount, DFS players will likely shy away from Brown in a perceived tough matchup against the Patriots but New England’s recent schedule has been a bit of a cakewalk. Tennessee’s top receiver is near the top of this week’s Breakout Receiver Model and is the ideal high-volume player to target at a low rostered rate.
Cash Game Strategy
Many of this year’s elite players from every position are often the main slate, illustrated by the low implied point totals across the board this week. This means that many of the best values have relatively low salaries and it should be quite easy to jam in the few studs in this 10-gamer.
- QB: Tyrod Taylor, Jimmy Garoppolo, Aaron Rodgers, Jalen Hurts
- RB: Najee Harris, A.J. Dillon, Leonard Fournette, Austin Ekeler, Miles Sanders, Dalvin Cook, Joe Mixon
- WR: Davante Adams, Cooper Kupp, Diontae Johnson, Brandin Cooks, Jaylen Waddle, Tee Higgins, Ja'Marr Chase, Brandon Aiyuk, Chris Godwin, Mike Evans, Keenan Allen, D.J. Moore
- TE: George Kittle, Rob Gronkowski, Dallas Goedert, Tyler Conklin
- DEF: Chargers, Jaguars, Texans, Falcons, Eagles, Bengals
