Super Wild Card PrizePicks Props
The regular season is over, but the PrizePicks props selections from yours truly are not! Through the postseason, I will continue to pick PrizePicks plays using 4for4’s player projections. If you're not familiar with PrizePicks, they offer pick’em situations involving player stats and fantasy points. To complete an entry, select two or more options for your chance to win money up to triple your entry cost.
Do not forget to check out the 4for4 PrizePicks tool! See what I see and make picks beyond what I list each week.
Week 18 Record: 6-1
Season Record: 77-53
Not only did the single picks lead to a strong double-up week for me, but I also hit my first five-pick flex play of the season (10x payout). I could not have asked for a better finish to the regular season. For those checking this out for the first time, welcome! I usually pick seven plays each week for a good variety and pool to tail. With the weekly schedule shrinking, I will not be sticking to a strict seven-play format for the remaining weeks, as this is a disservice to us both.
Time to start the postseason strong.
Super Wild Card Picks
Tyreek Hill Under 17.0 Fantasy Points
- 4for4 Projection: 16.4 Fantasy Points
Since Kansas City’s Week 12 bye, Tyreek Hill has eclipsed 17.0 fantasy points once and has 31.1 fantasy points in the other five games combined. The Steelers' pass rush will get to Patrick Mahomes enough times to where the passing game is limited to throws closer to the line of scrimmage. COVID-19 appears to also have caused Hill to not be his usual self on the field.
Cameron Brate Over 3.5 Fantasy Points
- 4for4 Projection: 5.3 Fantasy Points
Regardless of the wide receiver injury situation for Tampa Bay, Cameron Brate has topped 3.5 fantasy points in 10-of-17 games. He hit exactly 3.5 in another contest. Brate has also caught at least two passes in 11 games and only had one goose egg on the season. Mike Evans and Rob Gronkowski are the top dogs going forward, but Brate is a trusted veteran who finds his way on the field (40% snap share). The Eagles defense ranked 32nd during the regular season in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed (aFPA) to tight ends.
Tom Brady Over 1.5 Rushing Yards
- 4for4 Projection: 5.3 Rushing Yards
PrizePicks wants me to sweat. Tom Brady has topped this prop line 10 times in 17 games and reached double-digit rushing yards in five of them. The Eagles contained Brady to one yard on four attempts earlier this season in Philadelphia, and I guarantee Brady wants to make up for his failed scrambles. Brady’s 2.89 yards per carry is his highest since 2005.
Jimmy Garoppolo Over 21.0 Pass Completions
- 4for4 Projection: 22.2 Pass Completions
It would behoove Jimmy Garoppolo and the 49ers to target one of the worst secondaries in the NFL. The Cowboys' secondary has had a nice schedule to end the season with Kyler Murray being the only real QB threat they faced since Week 14. Murray completed 26 passes against Dallas as their run game was stifled. San Francisco is expected to have Elijah Mitchell and Jeff Wilson Jr. with a smattering of Deebo Samuel, but the Cowboys' rush defense was excellent to finish the season and allowed one 100-yard rusher since Week 9. Derek Carr was able to exploit the Dallas secondary with an elite tight end and one top receiver—Garoppolo can do so with an elite tight end and two top wideouts.
Leonard Fournette Under 30.5 Receiving Yards
- 4for4 Projection: 25.9 Receiving Yards
Leonard Fournette is expected to play this weekend, but may not see his full usage in the running and passing game. The Buccaneers should have Le’Veon Bell and Ke'Shawn Vaughn active and both are capable pass-catchers. The Eagles defense is also stingy through the air to opposing backs, allowing only two to top 30 receiving yards since Week 9. In both instances (against Washington of all teams), the running back was the clear top option. Playoff Lenny should be Tampa’s top option for a long postseason run, but I am not counting on a full workload.
Chase Claypool Over 38.5 Receiving Yards
- 4for4 Projection: 56.4 Receiving Yards
For all the talk about Chase Claypool’s supposed bad play/decisionmaking, he has been a consistent threat since missing Week 10 due to injury. He has at least 39 receiving yards in 5-of-8 games and missed this prop line by two yards in Week 18. Claypool finished with a 4-41-0 line on six targets against the Chiefs in Week 16, which was seven fewer yards on three fewer targets than teammate Diontae Johnson. With the Steelers in playoff desperation mode, Claypool has played at least 82% of snaps the past three weeks and he should remain on the field as the Steelers try to upset the Chiefs.
Devin Singletary Over 12.5 Receiving Yards
- 4for4 Projection: 20.8 Receiving Yards
In their Week 16 win against the Patriots, Devin Singletary was targeted six times, catching five passes for 39 yards. Even with the Patriots defense being a run funnel, Singletary should continue to dominate targets and touches out of the Bills backfield, with Zack Moss the only other Bills running back to receive a target (three total) the past four weeks. Singletary also only has two games with multiple catches and a YPR below 4.50.
