Connor Allen: 3 Week 4 Player Props I'm Betting

Oct 01, 2021

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As the legalization of sports betting continues to explode, more and more people are diving into a new way of speculating on sports. For those just starting off, I broke down some of the basics in my gambling 101 piece. Among every category of bets, player props remain the most beatable in the long run. Last year, I hit 59% of my bets for +35 units on the season. The two years prior were much of the same, hitting 57% and 58%, respectively, of my player props for profitable seasons. I have improved every year and think that trend will continue with new tools. I’ve already fired off a handful of bets for Week 4 and will be adding more here. If you are a betting subscriber, it is vital to be in Discord. We have it set up so that you can get push notifications for the plays our staff posts. Just go to role assign, then scroll up and click the little circus emoji under “Prop Stars.” If you want general NFL betting notifications, go to role assign and then click the football emoji.

Week 3 Review: The Hindenburg. The Titanic. My Week 3 prop bets. All things that famously crashed and burned. I was so upset I truly didn’t even want to talk about it when Move The Line rolled around on Wednesday. Allen Lazard saw one target. That one target turned into a 44-yard reception, busting our under on 28 yards. James Conner had his first reception of the season and it went for 10 yards, busting our under on 3.5 yards. Michael Carter saw three targets—the first he dropped that would have gone for 10-15 yards. The second was a screen for -5 yards. The third was a 10-yard screen that got him to five yards, which was two yards short of his over/under of 6.5 yards. The Rams thoroughly dominated the Bucs, giving Sony Michel 20 carries en route to 67 yards, busting our under of 57. There were even more beyond that but I'll save the angst and frustration. An inexplicably bad run of variance led me to the worst week of my career. Rather than moping about it any longer, I picked myself up, realized this week is a blank slate and we will dig out of this small hole.

More Week 4 Player Props: Sam Hoppen | Ryan Noonan