3 Overvalued Fantasy Football Tight Ends for 2022

Aug 09, 2022

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At the tight end position, if there are questions of whether or not a draft target can finish in the top-five at their position, you are probably better off foregoing them until the late rounds. Over the last five seasons, the TE6 in half-PPR points per game was scoring 9.8 PPG. That mark would have landed as the RB38 and/or the WR42 in 2021, giving credence to how we should be targeting other positions if we’re not especially certain about a tight end’s upside.

More Overvalued Players: QB | WR | RB

In the broad scope of things, there are two types of tight ends in fantasy drafts; the top tier of Travis Kelce, Mark Andrews, or Kyle Pitts and a lower tier of guys we are hoping can score similar points. As such, there are players in that massive tier fighting for fantasy relevance, and I have found three in particular who I believe are overvalued based on their average draft position (ADP). I’ve broken down each of them below and will be avoiding them in fantasy leagues unless they begin to slide down draft boards.

Mike Gesicki, Dolphins

Current ADP: 10.01, TE12

4for4 Rank: TE16

After coming off draft boards as the TE12 in 2021, Mike Gesicki would wrap up the year by averaging 7.4 half-PPR points per game, good enough for a TE16 finish despite finishing fourth amongst tight ends with his 111 targets. Gesicki had a woefully inefficient season, finishing 19th in yards after the catch, 16th in yards per target, and 23rd in receiver rating, each out of 29 qualifying tight ends. What’s more damning, the majority of the tight end’s fantasy-relevant production came with quarterback Tua Tagovailoa out of the lineup, as highlighted by our Market Share Splits App.

Mike Gesicki's 2021 Per Game Averages
Gesicki's Quarterback	Snaps/gm	Targets/gm	Receptions/gm	Air Yards/gm	Rec Yards/gm	Yards/Rec
Tua Tagovailoa	49	6.0	3.9	54.2	41.6	8.7
Jacoby Brissett	48	7.8	5.2	77.6	56.2	11.6

It was nice of the Dolphins to put Gesicki on the field an identical amount with and without Tagovailoa to give this chart even more context. Simply put, when Tua Tagovailoa is on the field, Gesicki gets targeted less, and when he is targeted, it’s closer to the line of scrimmage, lowering the ceiling that intrinsically comes from deep plays. In addition to providing Gesicki with low-upside plays between the 20s; they have backed off on his red zone usage as well, as his 11 targets from within the opponent's 20-yard line ranked 19th amongst tight ends and second on his team, four less than 5’10” teammate Jaylen Waddle.

In all, Mike Gesicki put together four TE1 weeks with his 111 targets; two were with Tagovailoa sidelined. It’s hard to see how Gesicki is going to beat his 2021 output, especially considering how much of the team’s target share is going to go to Tyreek Hill after Miami shipped off five draft picks for his services. I’d put my money on Gesicki being nothing more than a streaming option on an offense that could provide him a couple of spike weeks.