Don't Doubt Dak Prescott for Fantasy Football in 2022

Entering 2021 after a season lost due to injury, Dak Prescott was being drafted as the QB6 off the board in PPR leagues as people expected a bounce-back to his pre-2020-injury form.

Many who were overexposed to Prescott last season, including me, walked away with a sour taste in their mouths, as he failed to top 12 fantasy points in any game between Weeks 13 and 15 last season, some of the most crucial weeks of the fantasy season. Even so, Prescott finished as the QB7 in total fantasy points and the QB8 in fantasy points per game. Even if the perception is that he had a ‘disappointing’ season, he was still a solid QB1.

Click here for more 2022 Player Profiles!

Despite being a solid QB1 last season, he’s going off the board as the QB11 on Underdog thanks to losing one of his top weapons in Amari Cooper and the fact that he’ll be without another (Michael Gallup) for a chunk of the season. Now is the time to buy Dak Prescott, and here’s why.

Dak Prescott is still a threat to run

The Cowboys proceeded with caution when it came to Prescott running the ball in 2021 and understandably so. He was coming off of a traumatic leg injury that, if reinjured, could end a career.

Now over one year removed from the injury and with Dallas in heightened need of play-making, head coach Mike McCarthy expects to expand on Prescott’s game, per Kevin Patra of NFL.com:

“Coach Mike McCarthy said Tuesday that after Prescott was limited coming off the injury last season, Dallas is planning to insert more QB runs and designed movements into the offense.

‘I think like anything, this is year three in the offense and the opportunity to move more potentially than he did in the past, as far as what he's being asked to do," the coach said. "I think he's clearly, the thing that jumps out to me, is his movement ability in the scramble drills and scramble situations. The way he activates scramble drills. He's gotten more reps at it, it's more natural to him, so he looks really good.’", Patra writes.

We’ve seen flashes of this upside, too. Since 2018, Prescott has rushed for at least 20 yards (an additional 2.0 fantasy points per game) in 16 of 53 games. There wasn’t an in-between in these games, either. If he went over 20 rushing yards, he went way over, averaging 34.69 rushing yards in those games with a touchdown coming every 5.3 games. Given the Cowboy’s need to manufacture production after losing some playmakers, we should expect an uptick in Prescott’s rushing production, and given the historical data we have, it’s something he’s been able to do quite successfully.

The Cowboys Play at a Fast Pace

Dallas has had one of the most prolific and high-octane offenses in the NFL for the last several years and their pace of play based on (fewest) seconds per play backs this up:

• 2021: 2nd (26.30 seconds per play)
• 2020: 1st (23.59)
• 2019: 2nd (25.54)

Why is this important? The quicker a team plays, the more plays they’ll be able to execute in a game, which leads to more opportunities for fantasy production.

But are they just running the ball on these plays? Nope. Not only has Dallas been top-two in each of the last three seasons in pace of play, but they’ve ranked in the top-12 in pass-play percentage in each of the last two seasons (12th in 2020, 11th in 2021). Combining the favorable pass-play percentages with the elite pace of play, the Cowboys have ranked within the top-5 in the NFL in pass attempts per game in each of the last two years as well (2nd in 2020, 5th in 2021), despite playing half of a season with Andy Dalton as a signal-caller in 2020.

If the Cowboys didn’t gravitate far from their playbook when Dalton was under center, they certainly won’t just because Cooper is gone and Gallup is out for part of the season.

The Cowboys still have playmakers

There’s been a lot of discourse among fantasy analysts that this offense could be a shell of itself in 2022 given the aforementioned losses. Is it within the range of outcomes? Sure, but it’s not entirely probable.

The loss of Cooper and his 18.4% target share will certainly be a dent in the armor of this offense, but not one they cannot overcome. It was CeeDee Lamb, not Cooper, who led the Cowboys in target share (20.4%) in 2021. Lamb also ranked top-20 in the NFL in fantasy points per target against man coverage (2.12) and logged the sixth-fewest drops among qualified receivers (9). Stepping in as the bonafide WR1, these are two important metrics that can help bolster his quarterback’s ceiling in 2022 given the man coverage from top corners and the uptick in volume he should see.

Tight end Dalton Schultz should step in as the de-facto second option on offense after a breakout year in 2021 where he ranked top-6 in routes run (5th) and targets (6th) among qualified tight ends. The even better part? Dak Prescott posted a 122.6 passer rating when targeting Schultz, good for the sixth-highest mark in football.

We should also expect to see the versatile Tony Pollard line up all over the field given his ability to create plays. Averaging 3.49 yards created per touch in 2021 (6th) and ranking 22nd in total yards created (589), Pollard’s presence will only help Prescott’s production.

These three weapons are the exciting pieces of this offense, but Ezekiel Elliott may even have gas left in the tank and if Gallup is to return midway through the season, it'll only bolster Prescott's stock.

Bottom Line

• Despite a seemingly disappointing 2021 season, Dak Prescott is in a prime position to bounce back as an elite option at the quarterback position in 2022.
• A projected uptick in rushing opportunities combined with the pace-of-play trend that we’ve seen from the Cowboys cements Prescott as a rock-solid QB1 in all formats.
• Dak Prescott’s ADP is currently 85.9 as QB11 in Underdog drafts, mirroring his ranking in 4for4’s rankings and providing us with an attractive buy-low opportunity this offseason.