Hoppen to Conclusions: Week 10 Insights and Analysis

Hello and welcome to the Week 10 edition of Hoppen to Conclusions! This is where I, Sam Hoppen, will share some of my favorite charts, which are designed to give you an overview of the NFL landscape. These charts, along with the commentary that I provide, aim to help you make start or sit DFS lineup construction, or any other fantasy football decisions. There can be a lot of noise in fantasy football analysis, but these charts have been carefully selected to give you some of the most relevant and useful decision points.

Each of the charts has been designed in a way that you want to be targeting players and teams that are in the top-right quadrant of the chart as denoted by the dotted black lines, which signify the median value for the stat on either the x-axis or y-axis. Before getting to each of the charts and analyses, here are some brief descriptions of what you will find on each chart and how to interpret them. As you can see, I have also added views on the last four weeks of games.

Note: neutral game-script is defined as plays outside of the two-minute warning with a win probability between 20% and 80% for the offensive team.

• Team Pace and Plays: Compares a team's average plays per game (in regulation only, overtime excluded) to its neutral-script pace, using seconds per play as a measure of pace. On the chart, the y-axis flipped to show faster-paced teams (fewer seconds per play) on top. Simply put, teams (and overall matchups) with more plays and faster pace will offer more opportunities for fantasy point-scoring.
• Team Pass Rates: Compares a team's ps rate over expectation (PROE) to its red-zone pass rate. Here we can identify which teams are passing the most when game script isn't a deciding factor and when they get close to the goal line.
• Running Back Usage: Compares running back snap percent to his high-value touches (carries inside the 10 and receptions), with the size of the player's point as his total opportunities per game.
• Wide Receiver/Tight End Usage: Compares player weighted opportunity rating (WOPR) to his targets per route run (TPRR), with the size of the player's point as his receiver air conversion ratio (RACR). WOPR weights both air yards share and target share to evaluate a player's opportunity, while RACR divides a player's receiving yards by his air yards to evaluate his efficiency in the opportunity he is given. The charts show the same information for both the wide receiver and tight end position.

Team Pace and Plays

• Sunday Night Football brings us a California battle between two teams vying for playoff spots halfway through the season. All season, the Chargers have been a pace and plays darling (as indicated by their logo being in the top right), but their offensive efficiency does not match this. The Chargers' 5.3 yards per play ranks 20th in the league, and they rank 18th and 30th in explosive pass rate and explosive rush rate, respectively. Furthermore, Justin Herbert's 6.3-yard average depth of target is the second lowest among qualifying quarterbacks. Los Angeles will also likely struggle to move the ball against San Francisco, who ranks sixth in defensive EPA per play and first in yards per game allowed. On the other side of the ball, San Francisco's offense doesn't like to move with much urgency, as they have been the fourth-slowest team over the last month, despite ranking 11th in EPA per play over that span. I wouldn't bank on a ton of fireworks in this game, and I'm leaning toward the under.
  • Action: bet under 45.5 (-110) on DraftKings, Fanduel, or BetMGM
• Hear me out, but I think the Colts and Raiders game is going to be good...just kidding; it'll be a tire fire. Instead, let me shift your attention to the Dolphins and Browns game. This game is ripe for fantasy scoring as both defenses rank in the bottom eight in EPA per play. Additionally, while neither team plays with a particularly fast pace (both are outside the top 20 in neutral-script pace this season), parts of their offense have been extremely explosive. Miami's 11.8% explosive pass (15+ yards) rate ranks first and Cleveland's 7.8% explosive rush (10+ yards) rate ranks third, so both teams have found ways to move the ball. Finally, the Browns and Dolphins are two of the nine teams to have a drive success rate (drives that earn at least one first down or a score) of at least 75% on the season. These teams both have the chops to score, and I think this game turns out to be one of the best of the Week 10 slate.
  • Action: target this game in DFS and bet over 48.5 (-110) on DraftKings, BetMGM, or Caesars

Team Pass Rates

• It is well known that the Chiefs are one of the pass-happiest teams in the NFL. And while that greatly benefits his pass catchers, Chiefs running backs are left in the dust. Patrick Mahomes has targeted the running back position on just 15.6% of his passes, which is in the bottom-half of the league. But this is also a three-headed backfield, with Isiah Pacheco, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, and Jerick McKinnon all with a snap share below 50% on the season. Over the last three weeks, only McKinnon has recorded a game with at least ten total opportunities (that came in Week 9), while there's just been one game that a Chiefs running back has totaled more than 13 opportunities in a game (Edwards-Helaire had 21 in Week 4). There also seems to be no rhyme or reason as to when in the game these backs get involved. Earlier in the season, Pacheco was only getting involved when the game was out of hand, but after being named the "starter" the last two weeks, he has just 14 total opportunities and a 27.1% snap share. Regardless of the offense and who's leading it, there isn't enough meat on the bone so I'm staying away from every part of it.
  • Action: sell all Chiefs running backs
• Last week the unfortunate news came out that Rashod Bateman would undergo season-ending surgery. This left Baltimore with Devin Duvernay, Demarcus Robinson, James Proche, and Desean Jackson as Lamar Jackson's primary wide receivers. Baltimore's playcalling has reflected this lack of pass-catching ability as they have a -5% PROE over the team's last four games - this includes two games in which Jackson threw the ball just 16 and 22 times. Consequently, no Ravens wide receiver is averaging more than 4.25 targets per game over that span. That said, Isaiah Likely has worked himself into a nice role the past couple of weeks while Mark Andrews battles a couple of injuries. Over the past two weeks, Likely has run a route on 77.6% of the team's dropbacks and has earned a team-high 12 targets. He struggled a bit on Monday night with a couple of drops, but he's more than capable of being the number two option in the passing game (behind Andrews) since Baltimore uses two-tight-end sets on over 50% of their plays, the highest rate in the league. The volume simply isn't there for any pass catcher, outside of the tight ends, to be worth holding onto.
  • Action: drop all non-TE pass catchers for Baltimore during their bye week

Running Back Usage

• We saw Cordarrelle Patterson return to action for the Atlanta Falcons on Sunday. Sunday morning, there were conflicting reports as to what Patterson's workload would look like, but he was tied for the team lead in snap share (38.7%) among running backs and led the team with 14 total opportunities. These are down from his pre-injury rates of 62.2% of snaps and 18.7 opportunities per game. Subsequently, Tyler Allgeier wasn't far behind, as he also had a 38.7% snap share and was given 11 opportunities. Allgeier looked like the better rusher, averaging 5.29 rushing yards over expected per carry in the game, but that should be expected coming off of an injury for Patterson. Still, Patterson found the end zone twice thanks to getting all three of the Falcons' carries inside the five-yard line. Ultimately, this team runs the ball enough (-14.9% PROE the last four weeks), that multiple players in this backfield could very well be startable for fantasy.
  • Action: buy Cordarrelle Patterson, hold Tyler Allgeier, and drop Caleb Huntley
• Speaking of returns from injury, D'Andre Swift has now played in two straight games after missing the previous three games. Still, he has yet to get a full workload, playing on just 35.4% of the team's snaps across those two games. Because of this, Jamaal Williams has remained a valuable asset (and I believe will continue to be). Williams has yet to have fewer than 13 opportunities in a game this season (with and without Swift), while Swift has only eclipsed that mark just once (Week 1). Williams is also the Lions' featured back when they get in close - he has a carry inside the opponent's five-yard line in all but one game, and Jared Goff is the only other Lions player to receive a carry inside the five. The one advantage that Swift has is in the passing game, as he's run a route on 51.9% of the team's dropbacks in healthy games this year compared to just 21% for Williams. These two have very clearly-defined roles that give both of them value, but I would take Williams over Swift for the rest of the season.
  • Action: buy Jamaal Williams and hold D'Andre Swift

Wide Receiver Usage

• Amari Cooper is quietly having a very solid year so far, currently sitting as the WR13 in PPR points per game. None of his stats particularly jump off the page —which is why his year has been so quiet— as he ranks outside the top ten in most advanced metrics. But his five touchdowns have certainly helped make his managers happy. Cooper's teammate, Donovan Peoples-Jones, is someone I'm intrigued by as a late-season breakout, especially when Deshaun Watson becomes the starter. Peoples-Jones is the only other receiver on the Browns to be running a route on more than 50% of the team's dropbacks (he's at 85.5%). Sadly, Peoples-Jones has just a 0.19 target per route run rate and is averaging just 5.5 targets per game over the last four games. Having said that, Peoples-Jones has been able to produce for fantasy with double-digit PPR points in four of his last five games. Cleveland's 29th-ranked PROE this season doesn't leave a lot of volume to be had, but I would expect that to shift when they get a more competent passer under center.
  • Action: hold Amari Cooper and buy Donovan Peoples-Jones
• Stefon Diggs is an alpha wide receiver, so there isn't much to say about him as you're starting him every week, and you aren't selling him if you have him. On the other hand, his teammate, Gabe Davis, has had an interesting past month of football. In Weeks 5 and 6, Davis had PPR point totals of 32.1 and 16.4. Everything looked to be back on track for the young receiver until the bye week hit. Over the last two weeks, Davis has failed to top six PPR points. Through all of this, Davis has more than just six targets in one game all season. What's kept his fantasy value so high, though, has been the fact that Davis is Josh Allen's deep threat. Davis' 17.1-yards average depth of target leads all players with at least 25 targets this season. He also doesn't have fewer than 90 air yards in a game since Week 5, nor has he run a route on fewer than 80% of the team's dropbacks in their last three games. I'm bullish on Davis, but truly only as a flex option and not someone I currently want to rely on as a WR2, right now.
  • Action: buy Gabe Davis as a high-end flex option

Tight End Usage

• It was a couple of weeks of tough sledding for Zach Ertz with DeAndre Hopkins' return to the Cardinals lineup. But that seems to have corrected itself in Week 9. Prior to Week 9, Ertz had averaged just 4.5 targets per game when Hopkins was in the lineup. This past week, Ertz recorded eight targets (his most since Hopkins returned) and ran a route on a season-high 97.7% of Arizona's dropbacks while finding the end zone for the second week in a row. So far this season, Ertz ranks third in targets per game (7.8), second in end zone target share (37.5%), and second in routes run rate (78.6%) among all tight ends. Ertz may be someone I consider paying up for just to get some stability and cosistency at tight end, whatever that means for the position.
  • Action: hold or buy Zach Ertz
• Gerald Everett continues to be the beneficiary of Los Angeles wide receivers failing to stay healthy. Over the last three weeks, Everett doesn't have a game with fewer than seven targets. Everett had struggled to consistently run routes at a high rate, going above the 70% mark just once prior to recording a season-high 81.8% route rate in Week 9. That said, this was the first game that both Mike Williams and Keenan Allen didn't play, but then again, who knows when either will return to the field. Additionally, despite the solid usage, Everett has just one game with double-digit PPR points in his last four games. Even with a slight usage bump, I remain skeptical that Everett can be anything more than a low-end TE1 option.
  • Action: hold (do not buy) and start Gerald Everett