Hoppen to Conclusions: Week 11 Insights and Analysis

Hello and welcome to the Week 11 edition of Hoppen to Conclusions! This is where I, Sam Hoppen, will share some of my favorite charts, which are designed to give you an overview of the NFL landscape. These charts, along with the commentary that I provide, aim to help you make start or sit DFS lineup construction, or any other fantasy football decisions. There can be a lot of noise in fantasy football analysis, but these charts have been carefully selected to give you some of the most relevant and useful decision points.

Each of the charts has been designed in a way that you want to be targeting players and teams that are in the top-right quadrant of the chart as denoted by the dotted black lines, which signify the median value for the stat on either the x-axis or y-axis. Before getting to each of the charts and analyses, here are some brief descriptions of what you will find on each chart and how to interpret them. As you can see, I have also added views on the last four weeks of games.

Note: neutral game-script is defined as plays outside of the two-minute warning with a win probability between 20% and 80% for the offensive team.

• Team Pace and Plays: Compares a team's average plays per game (in regulation only, overtime excluded) to its neutral-script pace, using seconds per play as a measure of pace. On the chart, the y-axis flipped to show faster-paced teams (fewer seconds per play) on top. Simply put, teams (and overall matchups) with more plays and faster pace will offer more opportunities for fantasy point-scoring.
• Team Pass Rates: Compares a team's ps rate over expectation (PROE) to its red-zone pass rate. Here we can identify which teams are passing the most when game script isn't a deciding factor and when they get close to the goal line.
• Running Back Usage: Compares running back snap percent to his high-value touches (carries inside the 10 and receptions), with the size of the player's point as his total opportunities per game.
• Wide Receiver/Tight End Usage: Compares player weighted opportunity rating (WOPR) to his targets per route run (TPRR), with the size of the player's point as his receiver air conversion ratio (RACR). WOPR weights both air yards share and target share to evaluate a player's opportunity, while RACR divides a player's receiving yards by his air yards to evaluate his efficiency in the opportunity he is given. The charts show the same information for both the wide receiver and tight end position.

Team Pace and Plays

• One game that I'd consider fading from a DFS perspective is the one between the Washington Commanders and the Houston Texans. Washington is coming off of a game in which they pummeled Philadelphia into the ground with a death by 1,000 cuts, running the ball 49 times for 152 total yards. The Texans' rush defense ranks 27th in terms of EPA per play, but because of that, Antonio Gibson and Brian Robinson will likely both come with a big price tag in terms of ownership. Houston has struggled to move the ball all season, with just a 50.2% play success rate and a 65.2% drive success rate. Due to this, Houston's 57 plays per game this year ranks 29th overall. When they get into a situation with a win probability below 40% (betting lines indicate Houston has a win probability of ~41% in the game this Sunday), their 29.4 seconds per play pace ranks just 12th - not particularly fast for a team that has been in this situation often. On the other side of the ball, Washington has been able to run a lot of plays (as you can see on the chart) despite the third-worst yards per play on offense, and they're doing so very slowly with the 22nd-ranked neutral-script pace.
  • Action: fade this game in DFS

Team Pass Rates

• While this shouldn't be a shocker, it seems as though the Titans' propensity to pass the ball is almost directly tied to who is under center. In the two games with Malik Willis as the starter, Tennessee had a -28.3% PROE and only threw the ball a total of 26 times across those two outings. With Ryan Tannehill back at quarterback for Week 10, the Titans' PROE rose back to -2.9% - still not huge, but above their pre-Willis average of -7.1%. This spike in passing also coincided with the return of Treylon Burks, who saw six targets, tied for his season-high in a game. He also ran a route on 76.3% of the team's dropbacks, which was the season's second-highest rate for him. The Titans' passing volume still isn't enough to get me that excited, but Burks is still worth a speculative add purely because of his prospect profile and the brief glimpses he showed earlier this season. With games against the Packers, Bengals, Eagles, and Chargers in four of their next five games, they also may find themselves in more negative game scripts than they have been all season.
  • Action: add Treylon Burks
• So far this season, the Green Bay Packers' weekly pass rate over expectation has bounced around more than a beach ball at a Nickelback concert. Preferably, a team stays on one side of the aisle so that they can maintain some level of predictability. But this type of erratic behavior, while it would make Elon Musk proud, is not ideal for trying to understand and forecast usage trends. The only player who has been consistent for the Packers this year is Aaron Jones, who has double-digit opportunities in every single game this season. Until last week, Allen Lazard had been the most consistent receiving option with at least seven targets in five straight games, but he became victim to Green Bay's run-heavy approach against Dallas with just four targets (his second-lowest mark of the season). This inconsistency, coupled with the general lack of efficiency that Green Bay has exhibited this season, makes Jones the only must-start player on this team.
  • Action: start only Aaron Jones

Running Back Usage

• Entering the season, there was so much promise for Cam Akers. That has long since disappeared, and the Rams' running back room has been devoid of fantasy football production all season. So far this season, all Rams running backs have combined for 122.6 PPR points - that would be good for just RB20 on the year. The problem is that this production is split between a bevy of backs. This past week, Kyren Williams played his first game of the season, and there was optimism he could turn into something as there were reports that the Rams were high on him. Unfortunately, Williams played on just 27% of the team's snaps with only four total opportunities (one carry and three targets). Darrell Henderson, who has also led the backfield most of the way this season, led the team with a 55.4% snap rate. Henderson had dipped below 50% in the previous two weeks after not having a week below that threshold in the first six weeks, but he still has just two games this season with at least 15 total opportunities (he had just seven on Sunday). Meanwhile, Cam Akers played on a season-low 16.9% of snaps (for games that he was actually active). I'm avoiding this backfield at all costs but would keep Williams as a dart throw with the highest ceiling simply because he is an unknown quantity at this point. Plus, being further removed from his injury may give the coaching staff more confidence that Williams can handle more work.
  • Action: buy (with spare change) Kyren Williams and fade all other Rams running backs
• On Monday morning, the Arizona Cardinals released Eno Benjamin (who has since been claimed by the Houston Texans) in a surprise move after he had been filling in well for James Conner. But, Arizona must be confident that Conner is past his injuries, and his usage on Sunday showed that. Conner had a season-high 21 carries and 95.7% snap rate. Not only that, but Conner had another five high-value touches, and he's had at least that many in five of his seven games this year. You can't ask for much better usage than that. He also scored his first touchdown since Week 1, making fantasy managers who stuck with him very happy. The only other Cardinals running back to get a snap in Week 10 was Keontay Ingram, who was splitting some of the reps with Benjamin while Conner was out, so he is worth a speculative add as a handcuff.
  • Action: hold James Conner and add Keontay Ingram

Wide Receiver Usage

• Last week I talked about Detroit's running back situation, but this week I want to cover their wide receiver group. Amon-Ra St. Brown continues to do alpha wide receiver things, and you're starting him every single week. Behind him, though, I regret to inform you that it may be a bit of a lost cause. Josh Reynolds looked like he was playing his way into a solid role with three straight games of at least six catches and 80 receiving yards. However, he followed that up with just three catches for 22 yards total in Weeks 7 and 8 and has missed the last two games due to injury. In his place, Kalif Raymond was the next man up, but he has earned just six total targets over the last two games. He has run a route on over 87% of the team's dropbacks in each of the last four weeks, but Reynolds' return could muddy these waters even more.
  • Action: fade all Detroit wide receivers not named Amon-Ra St. Brown
• I haven't talked much about the Houston Texans in this article so far this year (and rightfully so), but I thought it was high time we check in on the wide receiver room after some trade deadline drama with Brandin Cooks a couple of weeks ago. After not playing in the Thursday night game against the Eagles, Cooks returned in Week 10 to a routes run rate of just 63.4%, which was his lowest rate of the season and the first time he was below 75%. Cooks just hasn't been that efficient this year, either, as his 1.58 yards per route run ranks 37th out of 47 wide receivers with at least 50 targets this season. He also doesn't have a single game with more than 75 receiving yards (a threshold he eclipsed seven times last season) since Week 2, which has put him at WR48 in PPR points per game. Meanwhile, teammate Nico Collins is coming off of his best game, earning a career-high ten targets and finding the end zone for the first time this season. He also ran a season-high 80% of routes on Sunday, so maybe there's some optimism this usage continues, but there's a reason that I haven't brought up the Houston Texans much this season, as these two just remain bench stashes to use in desperate fill-in situations.
  • Action: hold, but don't start; Nico Collins and Brandin Cooks

Tight End Usage

• Late last week, Darren Waller was mercifully put on injured reserve after managers were fed weekly news that he was close to returning. In his stead, Foster Moreau has assumed the TE1 role for the Las Vegas Raiders. Since Week 5 (the game that Waller first missed), Moreau has run a route on an elite 85.2% of the team's dropbacks. This season, Mark Andrews leads the league with a routes run rate of 79.1%, so Moreau's usage is not something we see often from tight ends! With that, he's averaging 5.8 targets per game over that span, good for a 16.5% target share. Not to mention, he's been extremely efficient when he's caught the ball, with an average of 7.9 yards after the catch per reception. Since Hunter Renfrow is also out for at least another three weeks, consider me bullish on Moreau for the time being.
  • Action: add and start Foster Moreau
• The tight end in New Orleans that has gotten the majority of the attention is Taysom Hill, but with 1.2 combined PPR points over the last two weeks, he may have jumped the shark as a legitimate tight end option. Instead, it's been Juwan Johnson as of late, who has scored four touchdowns in his last four games. Over that span of games, Johnson is second on the team in target share (13.7%) but is averaging just 4.5 targets per game. He's still running a route on over 70% of the team's dropbacks since Week 7, but his 1.26 yards per route run rate leaves a lot to be desired. Furthermore, if the Saints make the switch to Jameis Winston this week, I'm not sure that this holds as Winston has targeted tight ends at a 14% rate, one of the lowest rates in the league and much lower than Andy Dalton's 20% rate. You may be looking for some tight end production with a couple of big players going down, but I'd look elsewhere for more sustainable production.
  • Action: fade Juwan Johnson