Week 7 NFL Pick'em & Survivor Pool Picks: Patriots Muzzle the Bears

With three winning teams on byes this week and one at .500, picks may be a little tougher to decipher. Luckily, there are a handful of games with spreads of a touchdown or more to assist us.

Hopefully, with the help of PoolGenius' customizable tools and data, we can select matchups with some value so that you can get to the top of those leaderboards in pick 'em contests and survive another week in knockout pools.

Editor’s Note: PoolGenius subscribers win football pools three times as often as expected, thanks to customized picks designed for your pool's size and rules. No one else does it.

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Week 6 Recap

For the second week in a row, my picks went 3-2, as the Rams, Chargers, and my underdog Patriots all came out victorious, while the Ravens and 49ers were both upset on the road.

This brings my season record to 18-12; now let’s move on to Week 7, where hopefully, we find success in both pick'em and survivor formats.

Pick'em Pool Breakdown

Before I get into the picks, note that I’m not suggesting you should make all of the picks listed below. The best Week 7 picks for your NFL pool depend on strategy factors such as your pool’s size, rules, and prize structure, plus situational factors like your current place in the standings and the number of weeks remaining.

However, these picks do provide some of the best opportunities to differentiate your Week 7 picks from your pool opponents by taking on only a modest amount of risk or no additional risk at all.

Favorite Favorites

New England Patriots vs. Bears

The Pats are eight-point favorites at home, with 77% Vegas win odds and 74% odds of victory via PoolGenius. New England’s defense is playing very well and let's just say the Bears' predictable offense is not. QB Bailey Zappe has provided a spark, and with the help of Rhamondre Stevenson, this should be an easy win for Bill Belichick on Sunday afternoon.

The public is backing New England 95% of the time, so you’ll win or lose with your pool mates.

Baltimore Ravens vs. Browns

Cleveland’s ground defense is struggling, and the Ravens feature a pretty run-heavy scheme; plus, they boast Lamar Jackson at the helm. The Ravens should do a decent job neutralizing Nick Chubb and come out on top in this AFC North matchup.

Win odds are a bit low in this contest, with Vegas currently at 72% and PoolGenius coming in at 66%, but the public is on board at 96% so your fellow pickers will be in sync.

Sensibly Priced Favorites

Miami Dolphins vs. Steelers

Both of these teams will likely be sporting a QB change this week as Tua Tagovailoa is back from a few weeks on the shelf and Mitchell Trubisky is probably returning while rookie Kenny Pickett is in concussion protocol. The Steelers pass defense is banged up, and they’ll have Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle to contend with on Sunday night.

It may be closer than the seven-point spread, but Miami should take this at home. Both PoolGenius and Vegas are giving 74% win odds to the Dolphins, yet only 83% of the public is currently picking them. There is value in the selection, as other games with similar spreads, like the Raiders, are being picked 95% of the time.

Kansas City Chiefs @ 49ers

The Chiefs are road favorites in this contest by three points with 58% Vegas win odds. I get that Kansas City had trouble beating the Raiders and is coming off a tough loss to the Bills, but the 49ers are majorly depleted on defense due to injuries, and Patrick Mahomes will take advantage.

Public bettors are taking the Chiefs 86% of the time, which presents some value as opposed to Tampa Bay (96%) or the Raiders (95%).

Green Bay Packers @ Commanders

Picking the Packers is tough for me this season, but if there’s a spot to go back to the well, it’s this week against Washington. The Commanders are extremely vulnerable both via the air and ground, and Aaron Rodgers should expose their weaknesses. If Green Bay can get up early, it will be tough for QB Taylor Heinicke to play catch-up.

The spread in this tilt is 5.5 for the Pack on the road, with PoolGenius giving them 69% odds to win. Public pickers are taking the favorite 90% of the time in this, which is lower than games with similar spreads like the Ravens (96%).

Survivor Picks for Week 7

Win Odds: Top 5 Week 7 Picks

Stating the obvious here, but higher is better when it comes to winning odds. Everything else being equal, you want to pick the team with the best likelihood of making it through.

Here are the five safest teams this week, according to the PoolGenius Data Grid model (chances to win in parentheses):

• Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Panthers (82%, 11-point favorites)
• New England Patriots vs. Bears (77%, 8-point favorites)
• Las Vegas Raiders vs. Texans (75%, 7-point favorites)
• Miami Dolphins vs. Steelers (75%, 7-point favorites)
• Dallas Cowboys vs. Lions (75%, 7-point favorites)

Pick Popularity

Diversifying your survivor picks from the crowd is an advantageous strategy, as the pool winnings can increase significantly if your pick hits and another popular pick loses.

Here are the five most popular survivor picks for Week 7 (referencing Data Grid mentioned earlier):

• New England Patriots vs. Bears (28%)
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Panthers (20%)
• Las Vegas Raiders vs. Texans (18%)
• Dallas Cowboys vs. Lions (13%)
• Cincinnati Bengals vs. Falcons (5%)

Future Value

The last piece of the survivor pool puzzle is future value. If you fire off a powerful team in Week 7, you won’t be able to use them later.

According to PoolGenius, here are the top five teams in future value entering this week for a 100-entry standard rules pool:

• Kansas City Chiefs (5.3)
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4.9)
• Dallas Cowboys (4.1)
• Baltimore Ravens (4.0)
• Green Bay Packers (2.4)

Note: The numbers in parentheses are a proprietary rating of future value found in the PoolGenius Data Grid, which is also impacted by factors such as pool size.

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