The Training Room: Week 7 Injury Updates

Well, we knew it was going to happen eventually. After back-to-back weeks of relative inactivity in the injury landscape, 10/23 delivered a Ronda Rousey kick straight to the dome of some fantasy football rosters.

We were playing with borrowed time. The injuries from this weekend likely impacted your fantasy roster to some degree. I will break down each and give you some of my thoughts for the rest of the season.

Breece Hall, RB New York Jets

Injury: ACL tear

Projected Timetable: Season-ending

Potential Replacement(s): James Robinson, Michael Carter

Initial Thoughts:

After what was looking like a rookie of the year campaign, Breece Hall sustained an ACL tear and his 2022 season is over. Post-game on Sunday Jets’ HC Robert Saleh said the concern was an ACL tear and an MRI on Monday confirmed it. Whenever teams report there is concern of an ACL tear, it is usually correct. The field test for ACL tear (Lachmen’s Test) correctly diagnoses an ACL tear 95% of the time compared to an MRI.

We know Hall’s season is over but here are a few things to consider from 2023 and moving forward as it pertains to the RB position and RBs recovering from ACL reconstruction (ACLR) surgery.

There has been a big move to focus on Zero-RB while in fantasy football drafts partly because the position is so volatile. In general, RB injuries are more common, but I think it applies more to the premier RBs, likely due to workload, not just due to the position. Filtering out RBs vs. WRs with at least a 20% snap share from 2017-2021: 54% of RBs were injured compared to 49% of WRs. Although there were more RBs injured the margin was thinner than you might expect - again pointing to the point that more of the RBs taken in the early rounds of fantasy drafts are likely more commonly injured due to their workload. However, their workload is likely why they were going so high in your drafts. Double-Edged Sword.

Additionally, if you want to nerd out, I tweeted about the differences between Javonte Williams' and Breece Hall's ACL injury as it pertains to their 2023 outlook. In short, if I were in a dynasty league and had to pick one today, I would rather acquire Breece Hall. The research suggests he has the easier road to recovery and is more likely to bounce back next season.

If you really want to nerd out 🤓 here’s some things to consider with Breece Hall vs. Javonte Williams ACL injuries.



ACL with meniscus in NFL players

~ return to play RTP 330 days

— Adam Hutchison (@TheRealAdam_H) October 24, 2022

The Jets traded for James Robinson Monday. Michael Carter is still worth a stash, but managers with the second year RB thought they had the world by the tail for 24 hours.

Mike Williams, WR Los Angeles Chargers

Injury: high ankle sprain

Projected Timetable: 4-6 weeks

Potential Replacement(s): D'Andre Carter, Joshua Palmer (when he returns)

Initial Thoughts:

Mike Williams is the latest Chargers WR to suffer an injury, and his right ankle sprain could be of the serious variety as it was later confirmed by beat reporters to be a high ankle sprain. Based on the added torque that was placed on Williams’ ankle, he was lucky to escape without a fracture.

Players can return to play in <4 weeks following a high ankle sprain, but because this is potentially a more serious injury, I am currently projecting Williams’s timeline to follow that of Jerry Jeudy’s 2021 high ankle sprain - 6 weeks. If this happens to be the case, Williams likely does not return to his normal form till Week 14-15.

D.K Metcalf, WR Seattle Seahawks

Injury: patellar tendon injury

Projected Timetable: 2-3 weeks

Potential Replacement(s): Marquise Goodwin,

Initial Thoughts:

D.K. Metcalf suffered a patellar tendon injury, and although Pete Carroll has a history of not always being transparent when it comes to injuries, I think he was overly correct when he told reporters that considering the circumstances, the outcome for Metcalf was “great.”

#Seahawks WR DK Metcalf suffered a patellar tendon injury on Sunday, but he does not require surgery. HC Pete Carroll told @SeattleSports that the overall outcome is great considering the circumstances. They don't have a timeline just yet, but this could've been much worse.

— Ari Meirov (@MySportsUpdate) October 24, 2022

The alternatives could have been much worse and potentially season-ending. Looking at knee injuries in WRs, the average number of games missed is 2, with an 18-20% decrease in production for the next 1-3 games. However, filtering it down just to patellar sprains, the games missed spikes to 3 with no negative effects on performance. Metcalf should avoid the IR and even return just prior to Seattle's bye in Week 11.