O-Line Rankings and Matchups to Exploit: Week 9

Nov 02, 2022

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Evaluating offensive line play regarding its effect on fantasy football output has been a stone unturned throughout our game within a game. Here at 4for4, we’re dedicated to looking at fantasy pieces from all angles, and that includes the positive and negative impact an offensive line has on that team’s fantasy assets.

Below I’m going to be digging into specific weekly matchups between offensive lines and the opposing defense's aFPA —one of the many useful tools available to us here at 4for4. Many sites publish raw fantasy points allowed by position, but 4for4 goes a step further and adjusts those numbers for a defense’s relative year-to-date schedule strength. These numbers will continue to strengthen through more data points as the season progresses and when compared to a team’s advantages within the trenches will expose fantasy pieces we may not have otherwise considered.

Editor's Note: Check out the complete set of Week 9 rankings here.

Let’s begin by diving into the passing game to see what o-line/defense match-ups we can exploit.

Favorable Quarterback Matchups

Jaguars vs. Raiders

It would be difficult to tell from Travis Etienne’s fantastic efficiency in his first game post-James Robinson, but there has been a wide swath between the Jaguars’ pass-blocking and run-blocking. Jacksonville has had issues getting movement in the run game and ultimately ranks 25th in adjusted line yards on the year as a whole while posting fantastic adjusted sack rate (sixth) and pressure% allowed (fifth) numbers. This week the offensive line —and Jawaan Taylor in particular— will have a difficult test in slowing down Maxx Crosby, but the Raiders don’t offer a formidable pass rush outside of Crosby, as they rank 29th in adjusted sack rate despite Crosby’s 30 pressures and six sacks on the season.

Though he has been up-and-down all season, I would expect this to be an “up” week for Christian Kirk against a Raiders secondary that ranks 26th in aFPA to WRs, and 32nd in aFPA to QBs, for that matter. For the WR-needy, the resurgent Zay Jones also deserves some fantasy consideration, though I would consider him a desperation Flex, as opposed to Kirk, who is a locked-in WR2 option.

Vikings @ Commanders

Though pass-rushing freak Chase Young has returned to practice this week, this simply means they have 21 days to add him back to the active roster, so luckily, that won’t affect the Vikings in Week 9. That means we shouldn’t expect Washington to switch things up ahead of this game, and that could play directly into Minnesota’s hands. The Commanders’ defensive front-four is left to their own devices for the most part, as the team incorporates a four-man rush at the eighth-highest rate (76%) while blitzing at the league's 12th-lowest rate (22%), opting to drop more bodies into coverage. With an improving Vikings offensive line, Kirk Cousins has gotten comfortable against four or fewer pass rushers in the 2022 season, ranking top-10 in; EPA (8.68, 9th), YPA (7.5, 10th), completion% (72.1%, 3rd) and on-target% (85.4%, 1st).

The main beneficiary of these matchups has been —you guessed it— Justin Jefferson, who has earned 3.0 yards per route run when the defense rushes four or fewer defenders, ranking in the top six of receptions (41), air yards (321), and receiving yards (582) across seven games. It remains to be seen how much of an ancillary option T.J. Hockenson will be in his first game with the team, but I would try to plug in another option if possible. Instead, this game sets up as a top-heavy affair with both Jefferson and Adam Thielen in the running for a top-20 Week 9 finish.

Chargers @ Falcons

The Chargers lost promising sophomore left tackle Rashawn Slater to a torn biceps back in Week 3, but may have avoided disaster, as their sixth-round selection from the 2022 NFL Draft, Jamaree Salyer, has filled in admirably. Of his four starts thus far, he’s been fantastic in three of them, with his only speed bump coming when he allowed six pressures when lining up across from Myles Garrett in Week 5. He has an opportunity here to string together another positive performance against a Falcons defense that pressures the quarterback at the fourth-lowest rate (24.1%) and is at the very bottom of the league in adjusted sack rate (4.1%).

The biggest beneficiary in this matchup is likely to be Josh Palmer, who gets a massive bump in value with Mike Williams out. With Justin Herbert having plenty of time to operate from within the pocket, Palmer should be the recipient of enough deep targets to operate with a WR2 ceiling while only needing to start him in your Flex spot. Keenan Allen should reprieve his role as an underneath target monster, and both options should be in your lineup for Week 9.

We may as well get Gerald Everett in our lineups while we’re at it, as the Falcons rank in the bottom four in aFPA to both the WR and TE positions.

Favorable Defensive Matchups

Buccaneers vs. Rams

Targeting a fantasy defense in this matchup would have felt like blasphemy just two short months ago, but sometimes you have to change your priors with the ebb and flow of the season. A once-vaunted offensive line, injuries, retirements, and a general lack of talent have seen the Rams line drop from one of the best units in the league into one of the worst. Quarterback Matthew Stafford is certainly feeling the heat, and as a result, his average depth of target over their last two games sits at a lowly 4.7, essentially turning Cooper Kupp into a dump-off machine.

Even with Shaquil Barrett missing the rest of the season with a torn Achilles, the talent along the Buccaneers' side of the trench still has the talent to shine through in this matchup and will be glad to deal with statuesque Stafford after dealing with Lamar Jackson last week.

Dolphins @ Bears

The Bears have strung together back-to-back positive performances, scoring a combined 62 points and seeing Justin Fields explode as the QB2 over that time frame. Calling all of these points an aberration would be lazy, but with the amount of pressure still being generated on Justin Fields —granted, some of that is of his own accord— I’m not ready to pronounce their offensive line suddenly fixed. Fields has now taken 31 sacks on the season, with eight of them coming over those prior two games, and they currently allow the fifth-most schedule-adjusted fantasy points to opposing defenses.

The Dolphins D/ST has a built-in floor with the number of sacks the Bears give up, and if Fields reverts to how long he was holding on to the ball earlier in the season, Miami would be a lock as a top-seven option this week.

Favorable Running Back Matchups

Packers @ Lions

Though Aaron Jones has been battling both A.J. Dillon and an offensive line that keeps getting healthy to lose another option again, Jones is still the RB9 on the season and will have the chance at a truly elite performance against the moribund Detriot Lions defense in Week 9. The Lions rank 26th in defensive adjusted line yards, getting gashed for big plays throughout the season, where they rank 31st in explosive rush% allowed. Even with A.J. Dillon absorbing 106 carries for himself, Jones still ranks fifth in the league in 10+ yard rushes (17) and ninth in yards after contact (370).

Elgton Jenkins was trending towards playing last week before being declared out in pregame warmups, so there’s a chance he is good to go by Sunday, which would make one of the first times the Packers' o-line has been completely healthy for a game in a very long time. Green Bay’s offense may not look great right now, but this isn’t a game they’ll need to worry about; just lean on the run.

Eagles @ Texans

Everyone is well aware that the Philadelphia Eagles have a good team by this point in their undefeated campaign, but the performance of Miles Sanders has felt overlooked at times throughout the season. Currently sitting as the RB17 with 13.7 half-PPR points per game, Sanders has shown that he has the ability to blow up in games, including his 156-yard, two-score performance in Week 4 against the Jacksonville Jaguars. This sets up nicely for another Sanders-heavy approach against a Texans team that ranks dead last in defensive-adjusted line yards and schedule-adjusted fantasy points to the running back position.

Though his lack of action in the receiving game can be frustrating, Miles Sanders has such a great floor in this matchup that he should be thought of as an RB1 heading into Thursday Night Football.

Running Backs with Bad Matchups

As opposed to breaking down every bad match-up through the rest of the slate, here are some running backs I’m looking to avoid because of their poor offensive line and/or the strong defensive fronts they will be facing: