2023 Dynasty Rookie Risers and Fallers

Feb 24, 2023

Lance King/Getty Images

Over the past month, I’ve been getting readers ready for their dynasty league rookie drafts through articles focused on the 2023 rookies. Rather than link each of these articles, simply follow my author link here to view my past pieces to get up to speed.

Now that we’ve looked at an overview of the class, a breakdown of my positional rankings, and my strategy with the information we have thus far, let’s move on to some of the players that are rising and falling as we near the NFL Combine. Players take the field in their drills beginning on March 2^nd but most of you will be interested in the skill position drills beginning on March 4^th. For the schedule and data updates on the NFL Scouting Combine, check out this article written by Jennifer Eakins.

I perform multiple rounds of assessment each draft year with many hours of tape, snap, metric and statistical review. My goal is always not only to find those players who translate well to the next level, but those who have that special blend of athleticism and intelligence to become top producers within their position.

Just because a player is highly drafted, doesn’t mean fantasy stardom awaits. In many cases, teams will draft for fit or need within their scheme as opposed to projecting carry-the-load or target dominance. This has been especially true at the receiver position recently as it relates to slot receivers and field-stretching specialists. This fact is still tripping up dynasty players who equate drafted round to greater fantasy production.

While it’s easy enough to rank the first, and even the second, rounds of players as I get deeper into my research and assessments, further rounds of review and information gathering always allow for movement up and down my rankings. Then, as the NFL Combine concludes, official heights, weights, and metrics are folded into the batter and my rankings shift again. It’s an ongoing process all the way up until, and beyond, the NFL Rookie Draft.

In short, I’m always looking for those rough stones and hidden gems which other analysts may pass over because they don’t possess the stats or athletic profile to ‘pop’ on paper. I even have one league which drafts prior to the NFL Draft, making for an even more fun experience since the rookies’ ultimate drafted situation is unknown as our draft completes. To the well-researched go the spoils!

Typically, but not always, the risers in this piece will come from players outside my top-24 while those falling will come from within the top-24. I say “not always” because sometimes the players making the most noteworthy move will come inside the top-24, and it’s always important when you begin talking about a player to target with prized draft capital, especially if they climb into the top-12.

You know the drill so let’s get to the players who are moving on my rankings:

Risers

Zay Flowers, WR Boston College

5’9/182 lbs.

Rank: WR4 Overall: R8

Flowers helped himself at the East-West Shrine Bowl by weighing in at 182 lbs. though at only 5’9 ¼”. With downside weight projections close to 170 lbs., the additional 12 lbs. is noteworthy and helps secure his spot on my board as a rising asset.

Truth be told, I’ve been very close to moving Flowers above that of USC’s Jordan Addison as my WR3, a move which would surely cause a flood of emotional Tweets, but Addison’s production profile in schemes that project well to the NFL keeps him as a solid Tier 2 prospect. The only thing keeping Flowers out as my WR1 in this class is a height of less than 6’0". He runs a full route tree, has arguably the best get-off of any in this class, and can separate off his stem at every level. He’s going to be an intriguing late-first dynasty rookie selection and I like him multiple picks higher than similar rookie comp, Josh Downs.

Roschon Johnson, RB Texas

6’/225 lbs.

Rank: RB10 Overall: R21

The more I watch Roschon Johnson the more I see a player who possesses NFL ability while existing in the shadow of phenom Bijan Robinson. While I wish he was a year younger, he’s a three-down-capable back with good contact balance, enough speed at his frame to cause problems at the line of scrimmage, and soft hands as a receiver.

NFL teams are going to love his size and I believe measuring in at just over 6’0" helps his draft stock. He doesn’t possess plus-level hips but has quick feet for his size and enough agility to run within the tackles or pick up extra yardage on stretch runs. Pre-NFL Draft, I could see Johnson falling to the third round but I have a sneaky suspicion he’s going to rise into the middle of the second round in rookie drafts following the draft, dependent on drafted situation. Johnson is built for the NFL.

Tyjae Spears, RB Tulane

5’9/204 lbs.

Rank: RB11 Overall: R22

Spears is an interesting study and I like that he put on weight in the time leading up to the Senior Bowl.

He's an intriguing film study showing agility, first-step quickness, acceleration, and solid hands as a receiver, running with more power than is typical at his size. I like his spacial awareness and instincts as he enters the second level. On the downside, I don’t like his tape more than that of 2022 rookie Pierre Strong Jr., who I believed had starting next-level ability. While he continues to rise on my board, the drafted situation is going to be extremely important and, in reality, I think he’s going to be hard-pressed to find material production early in his career. I also believe his status in the Twitter community is going to lead to an over-drafted situation.

Kenny McIntosh, RB Georgia

5’11/210 lbs.

Rank: RB12 Overall: R23

McIntosh measured in at just below 6’0" at the Senior Bowl, tipping the scales at an impressive 210 lbs.

The senior turns 23 in early March, which is not ideal for a running back. If he was two years younger, he’d be a fast-rising name within the position. As it stands, his age will keep dynasty drafters away which could present an intriguing selection in an upside-drafted situation. He profiles best as a third-down specialist but still possesses the size to have Kamara-like upside at the next level. He’s a bit high-cut as a runner, but reaches top speed quickly while maintaining balance and fluidity, especially on receptions as he transitions from a receiver to a runner. He continues to rise on my board for ability but age will undoubtedly keep him from rising much higher.

Fallers

Jalin Hyatt, WR Tennessee

6’/180 lbs.

Rank: WR9 Overall: R27

The Twitter masses are circling the wagons for an early selection of Hyatt and I believe he’s the 2023 version of Jalen Reagor, but for different reasons.

Hyatt is a bonafide field-stretching asset and he has been a popular recent first-round mock draft selectee by NFL pundits. But as I’ve said before, teams often select based on fit, and not necessarily dominant role expectations. He's too one-dimensional and with limited impact scope from my review to place highly in a dynasty rookie draft. Similar to other NFL assets such as Tylan Wallace and Will Fuller, the chances of Hyatt breaking through to be a consistent producer carries long odds, rich enough that he will be drafted a full round or more ahead of my valuation in rookie drafts. I’ll let another coach roll the dice here.

Eric Gray, RB Oklahoma

5’9/210 lbs.

Rank: RB 14 Overall: R28

There’s no way to sugar coat this, while I love the way Gray moves, the rookie turns 24 in 2023 and, in a position already prone to falling in the NFL Draft and with committee usage on the rise, I can’t give away three years of age in hopes he produces early at the next level.

He’s an exciting runner to watch with a fine balance of power, agility, and upside for his size but unless he produces in his first two years, it's quite unlikely given his profile, his production curve is going to be far too short for me to hazard an investment.

Dalton Kincaid, TE Utah

6’4/240 lbs.

Rank: TE2 Overall: R30

Hear me out on this regarding Kincaid. He’s my TE2 in this class but a rookie TE2 rarely produces early in his career. In fact, most rookie tight ends have a steep path to climb for production at the next level. When surveying historic tight end production, few come from the NFL first round and this year is all about Michael Mayer.

Kincaid profiles well but history has taught me it’s best to let others spend draft capital on the position as a rookie while I wait for the next big thing to appear during the season. Rob Gronkowski, Travis Kelce, George Kittle, Mark Andrews, etc. were all later NFL Draft selections who emerged during the regular season, available as waiver wire additions. Kincaid could sneak into the bottom of the first round during the NFL Draft but I won’t hazard a selection until the third round of rookie drafts.

DeWayne McBride, RB UAB

5’11/215 lbs.

Rank: RB 16 Overall: R33

I entered my draft scouting expecting McBride to emerge as a top sleeper on my board. As part of my assessment process, I always try to check my previous observations and assessments at the door so as to ensure as objective a process as I can get.

McBride disappointed me on tape. Drafters will need to hope for a career path similar to James Robinson but the profile doesn’t match, nor does the assessment. McBride is a stiff north-south runner with little wiggle and no second gear. His running-in-mud style is juxtaposed to his gaudy stats, 3,100 yards, and 31 touchdowns over his past two seasons. Each time I visit his tape trying to find upside I’ve missed, I come away further disappointed. There will be better prospects and my belief is that he goes undrafted.

Hope you enjoyed this quick look at those players who are rising and falling as we head into the NFL Combine. I’ll be following up after the big event to update my rankings and assessments.

Give me a follow on Twitter (@DLF_Jeff) and let me know your thoughts on this list. Be sure to check back as I adjust these ranks as this offseason progresses leading up to the draft.

As always, be happy, be well and, please, be good to each other!