We have been betting on college basketball sides, totals, and player props in our discord for months but are excited to start pumping out more articles. We have Greg (@GHsportsandTech), a professional player prop bettor, Shane, (@Sjacksonbet), a knowledgeable college basketball handicapper, and myself all throwing in bets with write-ups. We’ll be giving our best bets every day of the tournament, initially released in the discord but with daily articles as well.
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First-Round March Madness Bets
A few of these lines have moved, but discord subscribers received push notifications for every bet, and articles will include a “play-to” number for those who miss out on the initial push.
The data on first-half unders in the first round of the NCAA tournament is really interesting.
Over the past 10 years, first-half unders in the first round are 225-157-14 (58.9% hit rate) if you bet them blindly. If you bet them all every year, you would have been profitable in 7-of-10 seasons. I'm not one to blind-bet anything, but adding an extra edge that books have adjusted much for, is a good place to start. Shoutout to our friends at Capswize and SGP for the research.
Charleston and SD State 1H U66.5 (-110 at CZRS)
Both teams have had a track record of slow starts this season with Charleston recording 18 unders to 13 overs in first-half totals record while SD State has gone under even more frequently, at 20-11. This is a combined record of 38 first-half unders and 24 first-half overs (61.2% under).
On top of all the trends, SD State is 10th in adjusted defense and has held opposing teams to one of the longest possession lengths in the country (348th). This could easily counteract Charleston's normally fast-paced offense given this is far and away the best defense they have played against. On the other side, Charleston's defense isn't necessarily good (75th) but they also have been able to slow down opposing offenses with the 206th-ranked possession length allowed.
Risk 0.55 units to win 0.5 units
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