2023 NFL Mock Draft: Ryan Noonan's 1.0
It's Mock Draft Season, and I'm excited to submit V1 of my 2023 NFL Mock Draft. We're less than a month away from Round 1, and the little birdies are chirping louder and louder as we get closer to one of the best betting events of the year. Hopefully, the sportsbooks get on board here and unleash a more extensive menu for us to bet on, but we'll be ready when they do.
We've been diving deep into the draft weekly on Move The Line, so check that out if you've missed it. Connor and Scott have also knocked out mock drafts, and we'll continue to sharpen our positions as Round 1 approaches.
This is a mock draft of what I think will happen, not what I would do. Leading up to the NFL Draft, I comb through as much information as possible, focusing on a handful of reputable sources, while also understanding front-office draft tendencies and positional needs to try and figure out where players will land. I do this so our subscribers can have another successful year betting on the draft. Last year we combined to win over 40 units on official plays in our discord, and some subscribers had even more success.
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2023 Draft NFL Draft Date & Time
Date: Thursday, April 27 (Round 1), Friday, April 28 ( Rounds 2 & 3) & Saturday, April 29 (Rounds 4-7)
Time: 8:00 PM EST (Round 1), 7:00 PM EST (Rounds 2 and 3), &12:00 PM EST (Rounds 4-7)
Channels: NFL Network, ESPN & ABC, also FuboTV Livestream
2023 NFL Mock Draft
1. Carolina Panthers (Via CHI) – C.J. Stroud, QB, Ohio State
The Panthers decided not to sit back and hope to see if a viable quarterback prospect would fall into their laps. The drumbeat for C.J. Stroud to go first overall was increasingly loud prior to the trade, and we have two pieces of video evidence of new quarterback coach Josh McCown publicly professing his love for the Ohio State signal caller. Now, I'm not sure how much say McCown will have, but Stroud also fits the profile of a quarterback that new head coach Frank Reich would like more than the diminutive Bryce Young does.
Did #Panthers coach Josh McCown tell CJ Stroud: “Maybe when you live in Charlotte we’ll find a court.” ?
👀pic.twitter.com/an4SsDGZ1H— Dov Kleiman (@NFL_DovKleiman) March 22, 2023
2. Houston Texans - Bryce Young, QB, Alabama
The Texans lacked an identity last season, along with top-level talent at every position, but Bryce Young can change that. At this point, everyone knows that Young would be a historical outlier in terms of height and weight at the position, but his abilities as a pure passer are unmatched in this class. Texans GM Nick Caserio came up in the New England system, where the Belichick-Saban ties run deep.
3. Arizona Cardinals - Will Anderson Jr., DE, Alabama
I'd put it at a coin flip that the Cardinals sit here and make this pick. It's an ideal trade-up spot for any quarterback-hungry team that wants to get ahead of the Colts, and the Cardinals, with needs all over the roster, appear to be a willing dance partner.
As is, Anderson is widely considered the top defensive prospect in the draft, and with Chandler Jones, Zach Allen, and J.J. Watt departing the past two seasons, the Cardinals are in need of anyone who can pressure the quarterback. Depending on if they trade back and how far down they move, cornerback is very much in play as well.
4. Indianapolis Colts - Anthony Richardson, QB, Florida
Ever since Andrew Luck retired, the Colts have been playing musical chairs at the league's most important position. It's obvious that GM Chris Ballard is on the hot seat here, and the success of this pick will go a long way in determining his and the team's future. Ballard has outed himself as a traits guy, someone who's willing to prioritize size, speed, and athletism over past performance. Anthony Richardson is the traits poster child of this draft.
New head coach Shane Steichen comes over from Philadelphia, where he was able to turn Jalen Hurts, someone labeled an athlete more than a quarterback, into one of the best young quarterbacks in the league. Steichen is probably salivating at the prospect of trying it again with someone bigger and faster because Richardson's athletic profile is off the charts. Ballard is already selling the locals that he can sit and four and get the best player in the draft.
5. Seattle Seahawks (Via DEN) - Tyree Wilson, EDGE, Texas Tech
The last Seattle Seahawk with double-digit sacks in a season was Frank Clark back in 2018. They've addressed their massive needs along the interior defensive line via free agency, with Dre'Mont Jones and Jarran Reed. While I think Jalen Carter is a perfect fit here, there are trusted voices close to the team that believe Carter's offseason has moved him down or off Seattle's board entirely. Time will tell if that's true or not, but they also have a need at edge rusher, with Uchenna Nwosu and Darrell Taylor entering the final year of their deals.
If Carter is in play for Seattle, I think edge rusher is on the table for Seattle's second first-round pick at No. 20.
6. Detroit Lions (Via LAR) - Devon Witherspoon, CB, Illinois
This is another ideal landing spot for Jalen Carter in terms of the team's need and skill set, but he feels like water and oil in terms of coach and player fit. Instead, I have the Lions addressing a remaining need at cornerback, with a slight edge going to Witherspoon over Oregon's Christian Gonzalez.
The Lions played man coverage at cornerback at a nearly 40% clip last season, a top-five rate in the league. That's where Witherspoon thrived at Illinois, and he's a willing tackler, which is a rarity at the cornerback position. They brought in Cam Sutton and Emmanuel Moseley in free agency, but Moseley isn't a long-term solution at the position, and former first-round pick Jefferey Okudah's fifth-year option is pending, so solidifying another high-upside player at a primary position makes sense.
7. Las Vegas Raiders - Christian Gonzalez, CB, Oregon
The Raiders have a ton of needs and reportedly were involved in discussions with the Bears to move up to the top spot, so clearly, a quarterback is in play for them. If they love Will Levis, he should be the pick here, but I think we'll see a team move ahead of the Raiders for Levis (Tennessee?). Witherspoon would also fit, given the Raiders' defensive tendencies last season, but Christian Gonzalez is a prototypical cornerback prospect in today's NFL. He has the requisite size and speed to hang on the perimeter with the league's best wideouts and the ball skills that teams so desperately covert at the position.
8. Atlanta Falcons - Bijan Robinson, RB, Texas
Arthur Smith refused to acknowledge the forward pass for most of the season, so why not just lean into it and get the best back available since Saquon Barkley entered the league? Tyler Allgeier had a nice rookie season, but Smith has already stated that he wants someone to carry the load with Allgeier, who Atlanta selected with a fifth-round selection last season.
Atlanta could also address one of their many defensive needs. I think Witherspoon or Gonzalez are in play if they're available, and edge rusher is also a gaping hole on the roster.
9. Chicago Bears (Via CAR) - Paris Johnson, OT, Ohio State
Paris Johnson wowed at his recent pro day, showing quick feet and athleticism that's coveted at the position. The Bears have a need at offensive tackle, so Johnson gets the nod over local kid Peter Skoronski, who profiles more as a guard, at least initially. Georgia tackle Broderick Jones is also in play here and would get the nod over Skoronski, as well.
10. Philadelphia Eagles (Via NO) - Jalen Carter, DT, Georgia
I see Philadelphia as the floor for Jalen Carter. It's the perfect scenario on paper for the Eagles. Carter, along with former teammates and 2022 selections Jordan Davis and Nakobe Dean, slides into the holes left behind by departing free agents. The Eagles wisely prioritize impactful players at premium positions, and Carter certainly fits, assuming they're ok with all of the recent off-field issues.
If Carter isn't there, I could see the Eagles adding to their pass rusher rotation, but they should be able to do that later in round 1 when they pick again at pick no. 30. A trade-back is also squarely on the table because GM Howie Roseman gets it.
11. Tennessee Titans - Will Levis, QB, Kentucky
I think there's a chance that the Titans trade up to 3, 5, or 6 with the hopes of selecting Will Levis, but for this exercise, I'm leaving them here at 11.
The Titans need to tear the entire thing down and start over, especially on the offensive side of the ball. They're in the last year of Ryan Tannehill's deal, and we saw enough from Malik Willis last year to know that he's not an NFL-caliber quarterback.
The offensive line and wide receiver are also areas of need for the Titans, who are likely better off staying put, selecting an offensive lineman, and bottoming out in hopes of being in the mix for next year's top draft spot. Unfortunately, Mike Vrabel is too damn good and would drag this sorry group to six wins regardless.
12. Houston Texans (Via CLE) - Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Ohio State
I'm sure new head coach DeMeco Ryans would love to add a pass rusher here, but with the departure of Brandin Cooks, I think adding a new pass-catcher to pair with their young quarterback at pick no. 2 is the right way to go about it. The Texans also have pick no. 33, and the edge rusher depth at that spot is better than at wide receiver, which is why I'm going with Smith-Njigba in this spot.
Smith-Njigba worked primarily out of the slot at Ohio State, but I think he has the chops to play anywhere in the NFL.
13. New York Jets - Peter Skoronski, OL, Northwestern
Adding Peter Skoronski gives the Jets flexibility along the offensive line. Early reports on Mekhi Becton's status for 2023 are positive, and the Jets can use either Skoronski or Alijah Vera-Tucker at right tackle, with the other kicking inside.
Either way, protecting Aaron Rodgers, who I assume will eventually be on the roster, feels like the priority right now.
14. New England Patriots - Broderick Jones, OL, Georgia
I'm always surprised when New England stays at their draft spot and doesn't trade back. But if they stay here and make a pick, I think finding a long-term answer at offensive tackle is a priority. Trent Brown is in the final year of his deal, and recent free agent acquisition Riley Reiff is 34 years old and signed a one-year deal.
Devon Witherspoon would make a great Patriot because we know Bill Belichick loves cornerbacks who are willing tacklers, and wide receiver help is also a priority, but Witherspoon is gone, and this feels a bit early for any of the other pass catchers.
15. Green Bay Packers - Lukas Van Ness, EDGE, Iowa
When Rashan Gary went down in Week 9 with an ACL tear, the Packers' pass rush was virtually non-existent. Gary is coming back, but the depth behind him proved to be inadequate, and Lukas Van Ness already feels like a Packer. He's big and strong, perhaps a bit raw in terms of pliable edge techniques, but we've seen the Packers prioritize traits regardless of position in recent drafts, and Van Ness checks all the size and speed boxes that they'll want.
Presumptive new starter Jordan Love could certainly use some help, both along the offensive line and at any pass-catching position, with tight end making a lot of sense due to Robert Tonyan and Marcedes Lewis's departure.
16. Washington Commanders - Michael Mayer, TE, Notre Dame
Michael Mayer is your prototypical tight end, but I think that undersells just how good he is. Being able to line up along the line and block shouldn't be used against him. He also has incredible hands and athleticism to play the position, and he's a significant upgrade over Logan Thomas, who hasn't been the same since his 2021 knee injury.
Offensive line and cornerback are high-priority needs as well.
17. Pittsburgh Steelers - Joey Porter Jr., CB, Penn State
The Steelers pick at 17 and 32, and in my opinion, need to come out of it with a cornerback and an offensive lineman. There's depth at both positions, so it'll come down priority at pick 17, and there's a bigger tier drop at corner between Joey Porter Jr. and the next cornerback on the board versus the OL depth.
Porter has the size, instincts, and ball skills that are needed to play the position at a high level, and the pedigree is strong.
18. Detroit Lions - Dalton Kincaid, TE, Utah
The Lions are likely to add another defender here, and I think Pitt DT Calijah Kancey is very much in play if they bypass Jalen Carter at pick no. 6, but I think the Lions have to consider Michael Mayer or Dalton Kincaid if they fall.
Offensive coordinator Ben Johnson, along with check-down king Jared Goff, still utilized the three remaining tight ends on the roster a ton in the passing game after they traded T.J. Hockenson to Minnesota mid-season. Kincaid is a massive talent upgrade at the position.
19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Nolan Smith, DE, Georgia
Defensive back and offensive line are also very much in play here, but here the Buccaneers land Nolan Smith, upgrading their pass rush with one of the athletes in the draft. Smith dealt with a torn pectoral muscle last season, which impacted his play and hurt his draft stock a bit during the season. He's healthy now and all but erased any doubts with his performance at the combine.
Foregoing short-term needs in place of high-level talent at a premium position isn't something that all front offices do, but it'd be the wise play in this case. Tampa Bay can't add a player here that's going to drastically change their 2023 outlook, so go get the best player.
20. Seattle Seahawks - Zay Flowers, WR, Boston College
Tyler Lockett turns 31 this year, and while he'll continue to wisely do all that he can to avoid getting hit, the Seahawks need depth behind Lockett and D.K. Metcalf. The search for a third pass-catcher has been a fruitless one over the past few seasons, and some think Flowers is the best receiver in this class. He plays bigger than he measures and has explosive traits that would help any offense.
21. Los Angeles Chargers - Calijah Kancey, DT, Pittsburgh
I'm sure the Chargers would love to see one of the two premier tight ends fall, but they have depth and talent issues along the interior of their defensive line, and Kancey is an ascending talent. He's a bit undersized, but his quick feet and hands make him an explosive pass rusher from the interior of the line.
22. Baltimore Ravens - Quentin Johnston, WR, TCU
Regardless of who's under center for the Ravens, they must immediately add pass-catching talent to this roster. Quentin Johnston is a big-bodied receiver who fits well in new offensive coordinator Todd Monken's scheme. He tested better than expected at the combine but is still slipping a bit after routinely being mocked as the first receiver off the board in January and February.
23. Minnesota Vikings - Jordan Addison, WR, USC
The Vikings have a glaring need at wide receiver after Adam Thielen's release, and Jordan Addison has the versatility to line up in the slot and outside, making him an ideal fit in this offense.
Minnesota is often mentioned as a landing spot for an early quarterback selection, some even suggesting that they could trade up to secure one, but I'm going the other way. With just five total selections in this draft, I think the Vikings will trade this pick.
24. Jacksonville Jaguars - O'Cyrus Torrence, OL, Florida
Protecting your top asset continues to be a priority in Jacksonville, and O'Cyrus Torrence is a great fit and fills a position of need for the Jaguars. He's helped his case in the pre-draft process with a good showing at the Senior Bowl, and his ability to play anywhere along the interior makes him a great fit in Jacksonville.
Secondary help, primarily at cornerback, is also in play for the Jaguars, depending on how the board shakes out.
25. New York Giants - Deonte Banks, CB, Maryland
The Giants have made a handful of moves to improve their pass-catching core this offseason, but I still think it's an area of need. With the way this board has fallen, with the top four wide receivers and both premier tight ends off the board here, I think they look for secondary help in this spot. Deonte Banks is a rising name in the pre-draft process, with the size, speed, and aggressiveness that teams seek in a perimeter cornerback.
26. Dallas Cowboys - Bryan Bresee, DT, Clemson
The Cowboys have done a solid job at addressing some off-season needs at cornerback and wide receiver, so giving Dan Quinn a big body in the middle of his defense feels right. Bryan Bresee was a consensus top-10 pick heading into the season, and while 2022 was a tough year on and off the field for Bresee and his family, there's still a ton of talent here. A strong interior presence for Dallas can be a force multiplier of sorts, allowing Micah Parsons to work freely on the edge.
27. Buffalo Bills - Darnell Wright, OL, Tennessee
The Bills have offensive line needs, and Darnell Wright has more versatility than some of the remaining OL prospects available. He's played guard and both tackle positions in college, so he can fill a need today while also being groomed for a move outside down the road.
28. Cincinnati Bengals - Anton Harrison, OL, Oklahoma
I've heard some scouts say that Anton Harrison is the best tackle prospect in this class. As a 19 and 20-year-old, he played exclusively at left tackle for Oklahoma and held his own. He's a plug-and-play pass protector right now, which is a great fit for this Bengals offense. They have a lot of moving parts along the offensive line right now, but continuing to add top-tier talent upfront is a priority.
29. New Orleans Saints (Via SF) - Myles Murphy, DE, Clemson
Myles Murphy has a pretty wide range of outcomes, but I'd be surprised if he falls out of the first round. Murphy fits a need for the Saints, who need help along the defensive front and at a pass rusher. His end-of-the-year performance was a bit underwhelming, which is leading to impressions of his slide, but I wouldn't be surprised to see him selected much higher than this.
30. Philadelphia Eagles - Dawand Jones - OL, Ohio State
The Eagles continue to add depth in the trenches here, selecting one of the biggest humans in this draft, Dawand Jones. Jones is 6'8" and pushes 380 pounds. With Isaac Seumalo and Andre Dillard leaving in free agency, the Eagles can add depth up front and gain a potential long-term solution at one of their tackle spots.
31. Kansas City Chiefs - Adetomiwa Adebawore, DE, Northwestern
With Frank Clark, Carlos Dunlap, and Khalen Saunders moving on, the Chiefs need help along their defensive front, and Adebawore's size and versatility fill an immediate need for the defending Super Bowl champs. He's a better run-stuffer than some of his peers in this class, and his combine testing showed off the elite athletism required to rush the passer successfully in this league.
