7 Teams to Avoid in Survivor Pools in 2023
Last week I discussed teams you should target during the early, middle, and late portions of the season to win your survivor team. This week we are looking at teams you should avoid in 2023 if you want to bring home the prize.
Making a decision in August to avoid a team for the entire season isn’t the wisest decision. Teams change and evolve throughout the year and we as survivor players must evolve with them. However, there are a few teams and archetypes that we should be looking to avoid in 2023.
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Rookie QBs
This one should be pretty self-explanatory but I don’t want to select any of the teams starting rookie quarterbacks early in the season. The Panthers, Texans, and Colts will all be starting rookies in Week 1 and history does not shine kindly on these teams. Since 2015 there have been 11 teams to start a rookie QB in Week 1 and nine of those rookies had a losing record that season. Those 11 rookies combined for a record of 56-103-2 in their first season.
These struggles are evident in the projected spreads over the first part of the season. The Texans are underdogs in all but one of their games over the first eight weeks of the season. The only game they are projected as favorites in is against the Colts in Week 2. The Colts are projected as favorites only once over the first 11 weeks of the season, and the Panthers are underdogs in each of their first six games.
Obviously, this rule can be altered if Bryce Young, C.J. Stroud, or Anthony Richardson begin to impress, but early in the season, there is no way you can trust these offenses in a single-game setting. There may be opportunities later in the season to use one of these teams because they all play in the two worst divisions in football and will have winnable games, but to start the season it is best to avoid these rookies.
Arizona Cardinals
Some may consider this horse beaten, but I have to talk about the Arizona Cardinals one more time. Kyler Murray will start the season on the PUP list which means he will be required to miss the first four games of the season. If his rehab doesn’t go quite as well he could be forced to miss any more time. There is zero chance that you can use the Cardinals in survivor if Murray isn’t under center.
However, the big question is whether the Cardinals are even attempting to win games in 2023. Arizona is beginning a new era with GM Monti Ossenfort and head coach Jonathan Gannon. They made a splash when trading out of the third overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft for a haul from the Texans. The Cardinals have a good chance of coming away with both the first and second picks in the 2024 draft thanks to that deal.
Arizona also just made headlines by cutting their supposed Week 1 starter, Colt McCoy, and trading for Joshua Dobbs. Dobbs will compete with rookie Clayton Tune for that starting spot as the first game draws near.
Not only do I question their desire to win football games, but I’m not sure they could find wins if they wanted to. The Cardinals are projected to be underdogs in every single one of their 18 games this season. With a lack of talent, question marks around the QB position, and an incentive to lose, I will be avoiding the Cardinals in survivor in 2023.
Bad Defenses & Over Achievers
While this piece of advice seems simple, I’m going to be looking at three specific teams that I’m sure people will be questioning whether or not to use on a weekly basis in survivor this fall. Even though they had bad defenses, two of these teams made the playoffs and the third was one game away. I’m talking about the Vikings, Giants, and Lions.
The Vikings were a nightmare for survivor players last year. They continually won games but their wins were never in convincing fashion and they always made you question how good they truly were. Kirk Cousins and the Vikings were 11-0 in one-score games last year which was the most in NFL history. However, each of their four losses game by 11 or more points.
Much of the Vikings' struggles were thanks to one of the worst defenses in the league. Minnesota’s defense finished the year 27th in DVOA, 30th in points allowed, and 31st in yards allowed. They couldn’t stop a nosebleed and that made their weekly floor very low. The Vikings got lucky by winning all those one-score games, but that probably won’t be the case in 2023. The Vikings are favored by more than three points only once all year and that’s in Week 1 against a terrible Tampa Bay Buccaneer team.
The second defense that is so bad it makes it almost impossible to use them in survivor is the Detroit Lions. The Lions were a scrappy team all season long thanks to Jared Goff’s revival and a top-10 offense. The reason they missed the playoffs was due to their bottoming defense. The Lions ranked 28th in DVOA, 28th in success rate, and 31st in EPA/play. When the defense gives up 27 or more points in 9/18 games, it becomes difficult to trust the team to win games even when they’re favored.
The last team to discuss is the New York Giants. The defense wasn’t quite as bad as the Vikings or Lions, but it wasn’t very good. The Giants were 28th in EPA/play and 30th in rush EPA/play. They struggled when they went up against the best teams in the league and benefited from an easy early schedule. They also were fortunate in close games like the Vikings. New York went 8-4-1 in one-possession games and will probably see regression in this area. The only game the Giants are projected to be favored by more than a field goal is at Arizona in Week 2. It’s going to be hard to trust this team in close games for a second consecutive season.
I’m not totally writing off any of the three teams mentioned above, instead, I want you to be cautious when selecting them. They will probably get more respect than they deserve from your pool mates and you should exercise caution when deciding to select them because their defenses give them a low weekly floor. If any team’s defense drastically improves in 2023 then we can adapt accordingly.
Divisional Games
The last piece of advice I’ll give is not necessarily a team to avoid but rather an archetype of game I try to stay away from if I can. Divisional games are tough not only for NFL teams but also for people playing in survivor pools. The added familiarity between the organizations makes the games much closer than when teams across the country get together.
I don’t avoid divisional games full stop, but it is definitely one contributing factor that I weigh in making my decision. If I’m deciding between the Saints playing the Panthers or the Chargers playing the Texans, I’m going to give the Chargers a bit more consideration when making my decisions because it is not a divisional game. This idea is especially true if the team you are thinking about selecting is on the road; road-divisional games are extremely tough and I would suggest avoiding them unless you absolutely must.
