Aaron Jones is a Massive Value in Fantasy Football

There is exactly one player who has finished as an RB1 in fantasy (top 12 at the position) in each of the last four seasons. His name is Aaron Jones. Yet, for a multitude of reasons, Jones finds himself being drafted as just the RB17 in fantasy this season according to Underdog ADP. Here’s a look at why Jones is a massive value at his current draft position and can easily continue his RB1 streak this season.

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Career In Review

Jones has been a model of consistency at the running back position since he became the Packers’ starter in 2019. Since then, he ranks sixth among running backs in rushing yards and fourth in rushing touchdowns. Jones has also cemented himself as one of the premier pass-catching backs in the league, and ranks seventh in targets and fourth in receiving yards at the position in that timeframe. He has also been incredibly reliable, missing just four total games in the last four seasons. In short, while he might not get the credit for it, Jones has quietly been one of the best running backs in the NFL in the last few seasons.

One of the biggest reasons why Jones is being drafted lower than usual in drafts is his age. Jones will be 28 years old this season, which has become a sort of inflection point for running backs. Some players—guys like Le'Veon Bell, David Johnson, and Melvin Gordon—experienced a significant dip in production after turning 28. However, it would be irresponsible to assume Jones will not be good simply because of his age. After all, just last year, Jones ranked third among running backs in Rushing Yards Over Expected and was tied with Nick Chubb for second in PFF rushing grade. So, even though some running backs have worsened after becoming 28, it would be silly to assume Jones falls off solely on account of his age as he has shown no signs of decline whatsoever.

Jones’ Role in the Packers Offense

The Packers will be a completely new offense in 2023 since for the first time in 15 years, Aaron Rodgers will not be their starting quarterback. This is another reason why Jones’ draft value has taken a hit, as the Packers will likely not be nearly as good of an offense with Jordan Love under center. With this being said, the Packers weren’t great with Rodgers last year, ranking 14th in points scored and 17th in yards per game. Jones finished as the RB9 in fantasy despite this.

Jones will face some competition for touches as bruiser A.J. Dillon will surely receive a fair share of the volume out of the backfield. Even so, Jones has already been able to produce alongside Dillon and the two have co-existed for much of the last two seasons.

Jones will also see a boost in production because he is a far better receiving threat than Dillon. The Packers receiving depth chart is rather bereft of talent, and Jones is by far the most experienced and proven pass-catcher of the lot. So, he should continue to put up solid receiving numbers and will be a check-down option and safety blanket for the inexperienced Love.

Assessing Jones’ Floor and Ceiling

Barring injury, it is hard to imagine a scenario where Jones doesn’t at least meet his ADP in fantasy this season. Even if the Packers offense is terrible with Love at QB, Jones will see enough volume through the air to remain fantasy-relevant considering the lack of other weapons the Packers have. Jones’ upside is a little bit limited without Rodgers, but his lowered ceiling is already factored into his ADP. He will likely not put up double-digit touchdown numbers (which he did from 2019-2021) especially if Dillon takes some of the goalline work, but Jones will receive more than enough volume to be a consistent low-end RB1 / high-end RB2 week in and week out.

At 54th overall, Jones would be a fantastic RB2 for your fantasy team to complement a superstar. To be honest, if you want to load up on receivers and take a quarterback or tight end early, Jones could even be serviceable as your team’s RB1. He is a great pick at RB17 as the questions being asked about him are largely overreactions.

The Bottom Line

• Jones is a phenomenal player who has sneakily been one of the best running backs in the NFL. He is the only player to be an RB1 in each of the last four seasons.
• While some running backs have fallen off at Jones’ age, Jones has shown no signs of decline and was statistically dominant in 2022.
• Jones will face some competition for touches from A.J. Dillon, but Jones will receive far more work in the passing game. This means he will be able to produce even if the Packers' offense takes a step back with Jordan Love under center.
• Jones is a massive value at his ADP of RB17 and should be aggressively drafted there. He is being priced at his floor and will continue to be one of the most reliable players in fantasy this year.