AFC North Odds & Bets: Best 2023 NFL Futures
A case can be made that tying up funds in NFL futures for 4+ months is a pretty -EV way to handle your money. But let's be honest; you've made more egregious -EV decisions than getting down on the Browns to make the playoffs in August.
We're in the middle of our Divisional Preview Series on Move The Line, and a ton of work goes into that on my end. I deep dive into all aspects of each roster, along with scheduling anomalies and anything else that might matter in preparation for each episode. I'm going division by division here on the site, in lock-step with each week's show, giving you my elevator pitch for each team and the best way to bet on them in the futures market.
I've already completed six of the eight divisions, so check those out here.
This was a fruitful venture for those who tailed in 2022. In this space, I went 20-11-1 overall (+9.55 units).
This season, the AFC North faces the AFC South and NFC West, while rotating through the AFC East, AFC West, and NFC North for their "unique 3" opponents.
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AFC North
Cincinnati Bengals
After a surprising Super Bowl appearance in 2021, the Bengals were a popular regression candidate heading into the 2022 season. After a slow start against the easiest part of their schedule, those prognosticators looked correct. After a 4-4 start, the Bengals won their final eight regular season contests before knocking off the Ravens and Bills in dominant fashion in the first two rounds of the playoffs. They fell just short of another AFC title game win in Kansas City, but this current iteration of the Bengals retains lofty expectations in 2023.
The bull case for the 2022 Bengals was due in large part to the offseason improvements along the offensive line. The line was healthy for most of the season until cluster injuries derailed their playoff run, but they've reloaded for the 2023 season. Orlando Brown Jr. was a key addition this offseason and fits perfectly into Cincinnati's scheme. Last season's left tackle Jonah Williams was not happy with the move at first, but he'll slide over to the right side, improving the overall talent up front.
It was impressive to see the Bengals shift philosophies after seeing an increase in Cover-2 looks, with more and more teams focusing on taking away the deep ball to Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. The Bengals shifted into a quick-hitting passing attack, working primarily out of 11-personnel (82%) and shotgun (66%), ranking second in the league in both categories. The Chase and Higgins duo have so much after-the-catch ability that the team still flashed the league's seventh-highest explosive pass rate in the league. Even with a running game that hit nothing but singles last season (30th in explosive rush rate), Joe Burrow led this offense to a top-five finish in yards per drive, points per drive, and drive success rate.
Defensively, bringing back coordinator Lou Anarumo was a massive offseason win. Anarumo garnered lots of head coaching consideration, and rightfully so. He's one of the best in-game play callers, willing and able to adjust on the fly to whatever the game state requires. Per Football Outsiders, the Bengals didn't allow a second-half touchdown until late October, and they finished the season with a +70 second-half scoring differential. The organization has done an excellent job drafting for needs a year ahead, primarily on the defensive side of the ball, and those young draftees like Cam Taylor-Britt, Dax Hill, and Jordan Battle will be called up to play a major role this season. Going from Jessie Bates and Von Bell to Dax Hill and Jordan Battle at safety might not be a big dip in terms of raw talent, but it's a huge gap in experience, so Anarumo has his work cut out for him this season. The front seven is excellent, with depth and play-makers at each position.
Surviving this division is going to be difficult, but it will surely build scar tissue for whichever club comes out on top. Facing the AFC South and NFC West helps lighten the load, but if this core is intact, I'll confidently take them on a neutral field against anyone in the league.
Best Bet: AFC North Division Winner (+160, Caesars)
Caesars Sportsbook Bonus
Baltimore Ravens
The 2022 Ravens were cruising prior to Lamar Jackson's late-season injury. An 8-4 start was good enough to withstand the last month and change without Jackson in the lineup, as Baltimore earned the AFC's final playoff spot, a loss at the hands of division rival Cincinnati. It was evident that the offense needed a change this offseason, and for a while, it appeared that change would be at quarterback. Instead, the two sides were able to come to a long-term agreement to keep Lamar Jackson under center in Baltimore, and 2023 begins a new phase for this offense and the organization as a whole.
Navigating roster construction with a big quarterback contract on the books is not an easy game and is something that'll likely impact this team more in future seasons than in 2023, specifically. In the short term, I'm fascinated to see how new offensive coordinator Todd Monken leverages this improved group of pass-catchers, along with Lamar Jackson's unique and evolving skill set. There was a level of predictability with Greg Roman's offense in Baltimore. We saw a lot of run-first concepts out of heavy personnel sets and passing concepts that were often referred to as stale and high school level. Monken was successful in this role at the NFL level before spending the past few seasons as the University of Georgia's offensive coordinator and has successfully jumped back and forth between the pro and college game over the past 16 years. We've seen him feature a vertical spread and air-it-out offense at both Oklahoma State and with the Buccaneers, while at Georgia, he ran a ton of RPOs with lots of pre-snap motion with a focus on more intermediate passing routes, which suits Jackson's style well. He ranked second in the league in pass DVOA in the 10-19 yard range last season, and with an improved pass-catching core and one of the league's best receiving tight ends, it's easy to get excited about this Ravens' offense.
Mark Andrews should still garner Lamar Jackson's attention more than any other Ravens' pass-catcher, but the upgrades at wide receiver will help Jackson reach new heights. First-round pick Zay Flowers is an exciting prospect and has flashed big-time playmaking skills this preseason. Odell Beckham and Rashod Bateman have struggled to stay healthy over the past few seasons, but when healthy, the trio will lead to a lot more 11 personnel looks for this offense. The Ravens used two tight end sets at an insanely high rate last season (62%), and while I think we still see a lot of Andrews and Isaiah Likely on the field together, it's likely in a less traditional jumbo formation. I'm confident that more Zay Flowers and Isaiah Likely and less Patrick Richard is a good thing for this offense. This will allow Lamar Jackson and his running back to see more light fronts, and the receiver's ability to get open will help the offensive line not have to hold their blocks for three-plus seconds on every passing snap.
While I have the utmost confidence in this offense, I'm a bit more concerned about the Ravens' defense repeating their end-of-the-year successes. The defense's performance improved massively down the stretch after acquiring Roquan Smith from the Bears. Not only was Smith awesome, but he allowed defensive coordinator Mike McDonald to be more versatile in his play calling, which allowed linebacker Patrick Queen and rookie Swiss-army-knife Kyle Hamilton to shine in their new roles. But they've lost key contributors this offseason. Calais Campbell, Justin Houston, Jason Pierre-Paul, Chuck Clark, and Marcus Peters are now gone, and outside of linebacker, there are some depth issues on this defense. I think the recent signing of Jadeveon Clowney to help improve a very questionable pass rush was great to see, but this team had an unsustainably high pressure-to-sack rate last season and is now banking on young guys like Odafe Oweh and David Ojabo to emerge and become more consistent contributors. The Ravens' pressure rate was just 25.4% last season, which ranked 24th in the league, yet they were sixth in adjusted sack rate. That's a lot of successful and well-timed blitzes, so kudos to the coaching here, but regression here could look worse than you'd expect. They replaced Marcus Peters with Rock Ya-Sin, who's a good fit for this scheme if he can stay healthy for the first time in his career. The cornerback depth behind Marlon Humphrey and Ya-Sin is thin and inexperienced, and the same can be said about the safety group as well.
With an elite offense and some question marks defensively, the Ravens could be an "Over" team this season. They have a few challenging stretches on the schedule, but they're currently favorites or a pick'em in 12 of their 17 games this season. If the offense is as good as I think it'll be, that may be enough to take this team into the playoffs. Perhaps the defense stays healthy and over-performs again in some areas, but I'm not comfortable banking on that. This is a playoff team, but they're not better than the Bengals.
Best Bet: Most Points Scored (+2200, Caesars)
Cleveland Browns
I didn't have "Jacoby Brissett will outperform Deshaun Watson" on my 2022 NFL bingo card, but that was clearly the case. Now, from a wins and losses standpoint, both quarterbacks struggled, but 2023 is a new year, and there's quite a bit of optimism for the Browns heading into the start of the regular season.
What do we do with the six-game sample from Deshaun Watson last season? The answer to that question goes a long way in shaping how one feels about the 2023 Browns. Watson was playing his first meaningful football since 2020, but meaningful is not how I would describe his play. Compared to Watson's 2020 season, he posted massive dips in adjusted completion percentage, big-time throw rate, turnover-worthy play rate, time to throw, and pressure-to-sack rate. It was so alarmingly bad I think it's irresponsible to assume that he'll fully return to the version that we saw in Houston, but with a season under his belt in Kevin Stefanski's offense, I'm comfortable projecting an improvement from 2022's disaster.
Watson is surrounded by a ton of talent and possibly the best running game in the league. The offensive line remains elite, and I'm required by law to mention that Nick Chubb is arguably the best pure runner in the league. The Browns led the league in second-level yards gained again last season, which speaks to Chubb's game-breaking ability and consistency. He'll be asked to shoulder a bigger workload, especially on passing downs this season, with Kareem Hunt out and questionable depth behind him. Amari Cooper and David Njoku had strong performances last season, and Donovan Peoples-Jones emerged as a legit field-stretching threat late in the season. Elijah Moore comes over from an up-and-down tenure with the Jets and fills a hole as the Browns' slot receiver. Both Cooper and Moore are excellent at getting open quickly, but getting rid of the ball fast has yet to be a part of Deshaun Watson's game at Clemson or in Houston, so that maturation will go a long way in determining the ceiling of this Cleveland offense.
I'm most excited about the offseason acquisitions on the defensive side of the ball. First, a change at defensive coordinator, with long-time DC Jim Schwartz replacing Joe Woods. Schwartz has the horses up front to run his unique wide-9 fronts, along with talent on the outside to handle the high rate of single-high safety and press-man coverages on the perimeter. Myles Garrett has been a one-man band upfront, but Za'Darius Smith and Obo Okoronkwo have been brought in to add depth to the pass rush, and Dalvin Tomlinson comes over to help plug a massive hole along the defensive line. The secondary is one of the best in the league, especially at corner, with an elite trio of Denzel Ward, Greg Newsome, and Martin Emerson. The Browns are loaded where it matters, and I'm interested in watching the symbiotic relationship between their pass rush and coverage. They had poor turnover rates last season, forcing just 20 total turnovers and recovering just six of the 19 fumbles against them.
It's not difficult to squint and see a strong season for the Cleveland Browns. Kevin Stefanski is a terrific coach and in-game decision-maker who raises the floor for this team every week. This team went 7-10 last season with 11 Jacoby Brissett starts and multiple jaw-dropping early season losses (Week 2 vs. Jets, Week 4 vs. Falcons), where they somehow managed to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. The schedule is slightly easier than last season, and they have very little travel in the first two months of the season. Again, this all comes down to Watson.
Best Bet: Over 9.5 Wins (+115, DraftKings)
DraftKings Bonus
Pittsburgh Steelers
If you're looking to fade the 2023 Steelers, you're up against one of the strongest trends in pro sports right now. Head coach Mike Tomlin has led this team to 16 consecutive seasons of eight or more victories, which is increasingly impressive given the limited upside at quarterback and along this roster as a whole over the past few seasons.
After stepping into the role in the early stages of Ben Roethlisberger's career, 2022 presented Tomlin with a new challenge and a new signal caller. After a handful of Mitch Trubisky starts, the team handed the reigns to first-round pick Kenny Pickett. Pickett's win/loss record exceeded his performance, and he benefited from historic continuity up front. The Steelers' offensive line remained intact all season, with their core starters playing all but 46 snaps on the year. They upgraded the overall talent upfront, adding Eagles' guard Isaac Seumalo in free agency and Georgia prospect Broderick Jones in the first round of the draft. It should continue to be a strength this season, with more talent and depth to withstand worse injury luck than in 2022. Pickett was billed as a quick-processing pocket passer with limited athletic upside, but he showed exactly the opposite of that last season. He was excellent under pressure, extended plays with his legs, and did some of his best work outside of the pocket. He was also good when he got the ball out quickly, but my concerns moving forward are around his inability to win in the intermediate, along with offensive Matt Canada's ability to scheme him up some wins. Once he was forced off of his first read, he struggled, which led to the high scramble rate. He posted the second-worst DVOA in the 10-19-yard range, missing the passing windows, which is tough when you lack top-level arm strength to make up for it. It's just his second year, so he can clearly improve in this area, but it's something I'll be watching closely early in the season.
Pickett's weaponry is good enough to win with. The duo of Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren is uninspiring but serviceable, and the pass-catching options are good compliments to each other. Diontae Johnson is an elite separator but somehow failed to find the end zone on 147 targets. That won't happen again. George Pickens flashed arrogant hands at the point of catch but offered little after the catch, which was a theme for this entire group. Pat Freiermuth was a consistent performer and popular target for Kenny Pickett, and the team took a chance on Allen Robinson in free agency after he laid a massive egg in Los Angeles last season.
The defense has a handful of new faces, but the core of elite contributors remains intact. If this team gets a full season from T.J. Watt, it's hard to imagine that this is anything worse than a league-average unit with obvious upside to be a top-ten group. You can make the case that safety Minkah Fitzpatrick is equally important, anchoring the backend and with the ability to play in the box and cover in a free safety role. Cameron Sutton left for Detroit in free agency, and Patrick Peterson, coming off of an outstanding year in Minnesota, was brought in to replace him. That sounds good on paper, but I'm worried about how this cornerback unit interacts. Peterson feasted in the Vikings' zone-heavy scheme last season, but he'll likely be asked to play a lot more man coverage in Pittsburgh's system. Opposing starter Levi Wallace is a long corner who thrives in press coverage but is often exposed in zone coverage or if he doesn't win at the snap. There's more volatility here than first appears since someone will be asked to do something that they struggle with.
I don't think this club has a wide range of outcomes. If Pickett takes a step forward in his second year, and T.J. Watt is his dominant self, this club is still likely topping out at 9 or 10 wins. If Pickett is the same guy as last season, and they get hit with a bit of injury regression, they'll probably still win at least seven or eight games. I don't really have a ton of interest in backing or fading them in the futures market at their current price, but I think this is comfortably the fourth-best team in a loaded division.
Bets Bet: To Make The Playoffs - NO (-140, PointsBet)
