Fantasy Football Debate: Josh Allen vs Lamar Jackson

Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson are both being drafted as top-five fantasy quarterbacks in Yahoo! leagues. In this debate, 4for4's Dave Stewart explains why he prefers Allen while Brendan Darr argues the Lamar side.

Read other player-specific analysis from the 4for4 staff: Player Profiles | QB Rankings

The Case for Josh Allen

Dave: This is an enjoyable debate. Whether you leave your draft with Lamar Jackson or Josh Allen, you’ll likely be happy. Both quarterbacks are in a position to have an excellent season. Still, I am happy to explain why I prefer Josh Allen.

It is not a hot take to say both quarterbacks have an overall QB1 finish within their range of outcomes. After all, both have earned this honor within the past four seasons. Jackson did it during his MVP campaign in 2109. Allen has been a top-two fantasy quarterback for the past three years, taking top honors in 2021. Had it not been for the tragic Damar Hamlin collapse terminating their Week 17 contest, perhaps he could have topped the list in consecutive seasons. He finished less than 25 fantasy points behind Patrick Mahomes.

We know Allen is unlikely to lead the league in completion percentage—62.5% is his career average. However, he has a slightly higher rate of 63.3% over the last two seasons. Still, these numbers are not going to wow anybody and have Allen squarely toward the bottom of the NFL. For reference, Jackson completed 62.3% of his passes in 2022. Positively, Allen’s deep ball rate of 45.7% ranks top-10 among NFL starters.

Allen’s big-play potential is a huge part of his upside. He was third in deep ball attempts (passes that travel 20+ air yards) with 80 in 2022. That averages to 4.7 such attempts per game. He is also going to throw a lot of touchdown passes. His TD rate was a healthy 6.2% last season. His overall passing volume is enormous. Only Mahomes, Tom Brady, and Justin Herbert have thrown for more yards than Allen over the course of the last three seasons.

Allen has a superior supporting cast of pass catchers at his disposal. Last season, Stefon Diggs finished as WR4 in half-PPR scoring while teammate, Gabe Davis, was WR28. Second-year man from Boise State, Khalil Shakir, figures to have an increased role with the departures of Isaiah McKenzie and Jamison Crowder. The Bills also used a first-round pick to select the very athletic and versatile Dalton Kincaid at tight end. Dawson Knox also will be in the mix.

Baltimore tight end, Mark Andrews, is one of the league’s best, but their wide receiver corps is being manned by Odell Beckham, who did not play last season, and two young talented, but inexperienced wideouts in Rashod Bateman and rookie Zay Flowers.

While the Buffalo pass catchers bring a lot to the table, the running game remains an area where Allen will be able to add value. Last season’s leading rusher, Devin Singletary, is no longer with the team. James Cook and newly acquired, Damien Harris, will handle much of the running back duties. But Allen averages over 617 yards rushing per year in his career. He has topped 760 in each of the last two seasons. He scores over five rushing yards per year and is a veritable lock to lead the team in rushing touchdowns again in 2023.

The final factor in Allen’s favor is his consistent health. He has played in 16 or more games each of the last four years. Missing time is a rarity for him. While Jackson will likely give you consistent quarterback production, there are too many variables to take him over Allen. The quarterback with the best shot to take home top fantasy scoring honors this season is Josh Allen.

The Case for Lamar Jackson

Brendan: To be clear, I don’t think you can go wrong with any of the elite quarterbacks even at their inflated ADPs this year. I should also point out that Dave is a great guy, with tons of great opinions, but on Lamar Jackson vs. Josh Allen, we will have to disagree.

To get the negative out of the way for Jackson, 2022 was a down year by his standards. His accuracy was his worst since his rookie season and his yards per attempt (6.9) was the lowest of his career. He also had his fewest rushing attempts per game since his rookie season. There were a few positives though—his receivers dropped 8.4% of Jackson’s passes and that was far-and-away his career high. You’d expect that to regress a bit. Despite averaging nearly two fewer rushing attempts per game, he was still near his average yards per game over the last two seasons.

So what’s changed for 2023? A lot, thankfully. Out goes Greg Roman and in comes Todd Monken. Monken has had successful offenses in Tampa Bay, and most recently with back-to-back National Championships at Georgia. Jackson is also healthy and has a new contract heading into 2023. And then there’s the added bonus of Jackson having the best weapons of his career. While they may have overpaid for Odell Beckham, he can still be a valuable asset, or so we hope. WR Zay Jones was taken in the first round and will give Jackson the best slot option of his career. Plus, whatever he gets health-wise from Rashod Bateman, at this point, is an added bonus with Bateman starting on the Did Not Report List.

So why Jackson over Allen? Both are capable of being the QB1 overall and both are coming off slightly disappointing seasons from what we know they are capable of. Obviously, Jackson missed time with injury, and his style of play doesn’t exactly age gracefully, but neither does Allen’s. We saw his interception percentage rise while his pass attempts dropped in 2022. There’s also the pesky issue of all the talk around the team this offseason about him running less in 2023. The Bills also added Damien Harris to presumably be the goal-line back for the year which could lower Allen’s ceiling a bit if he managed to pick off a few touchdowns around the goal-line.

At the end of the day, Lamar Jackson is going seven picks after Josh Allen, and while I’d definitely take Jackson given his ADP, I’d also take him straight up. The offense is pointing up for the Ravens with a new play-caller and better weapons around Jackson. It’s also cheaper to stack the Ravens with Stefon Diggs’ rising ADP. Do I have some worries about Jackson’s health and the health of his receiving targets? Yes, I do, but the threat of a decreased rushing potential lowers Allen’s ceiling for me just enough that I prefer Jackson. Again, I still love Allen and have him on some best ball teams, but for this exercise, I see Jackson as the more likely player to return to QB1 in 2023.