Fantasy Football Debate: Kenneth Walker vs. J.K. Dobbins

Running backs Kenneth Walker and J.K. Dobbins are two of the most divisive players in the middle rounds of fantasy drafts. In this debate, 4for4's Brandon Niles explains why he prefers Walker while Neil Dutton argues the Dobbins side.

Read other player-specific analysis from the 4for4 staff: Player Profiles | RB Rankings

The Case for Kenneth Walker

Brandon: I get it. Kenneth Walker had some issues taking what the defense was giving him last year and the Seahawks drafted Zach Charbonnet in the second round. Walker also now has a groin injury–which I am legitimately concerned about–so how could I possibly prefer Walker over Dobbins?

Here’s the rub: Walker doesn’t need the touches Dobbins does in order to get production at his ADP. When Walker was a first-rounder way back in March and early April, you expected a full workload from him. That’s what made him so enticing! Now, with Charbonnet on board, you expect fewer touches than the 22.3 he averaged in 2022 in games he started and mostly finished.

However, Walker is an explosive player waiting to happen. Seven of his nine rushing touchdowns last year came from beyond 10 yards out, and that includes scores from 69 and 74 yards. In fact, per PFF, only Nick Chubb had more breakaway yards than Walker last season, and Walker didn’t take over starting duties until Week 6!

Sure, Walker will likely cede carries to Charbonnet, but Walker is too talented and too explosive to be completely counted out. What we’ll likely see is a two-back system that leans Walker’s way and still produces 10-16 touches per game for the second-year playmaker. With his breakaway ability, Walker doesn’t need more touches than that to return value where he’s being drafted.

ADP favors Dobbins right now, but both are going in what used to be known as the running back dead zone–rounds three through six–at 5.06 (Walker) and 7.01 (Dobbins), per our powerful multi-site ADP tool. If I’m being honest, I like both at cost. It’s one of the reasons I’ve been going with wide receivers in at least two of my first three picks this year. The running back dead zone has been re-animated this year with significant production to be mined from the position.

The Walker injury is very concerning. Groin injuries can linger. However, Charbonnet is also nicked up, and even Kenny McIntosh just suffered a sprained ankle. No one is threatening to put Walker out of a job in his absence.

Dobbins isn’t exactly a sure thing either. He had a false start a year ago coming off a devastating knee injury that wiped out his sophomore season in 2021. Coming back too soon helped to limit him to eight games in 2022. In that time, he averaged an impressive 5.7 yards per carry, but only found the end zone three times and was targeted just eight times. There’s also a new offensive coordinator in town in the form of Todd Monken, known for more of a passing attack than his predecessor Greg Roman, who preferred to pound the ball down the throats of opposing defenses. Lamar Jackson also is known for his legs, while Geno Smith scored just one touchdown on the ground in 2022–an eight-yard scamper in a thrilling Week 4 victory over Detroit.

Most concerning is Dobbins’ own injury history and his looming contract status. There are concerns about a holdout and he opened camp on the PUP list. For a player coming off two injury-marred seasons, fantasy managers must be concerned about how ready he’ll be entering the season. While the concerns are there for Walker as well–health-wise–the contract situation isn’t an issue in Seattle (yet). Meanwhile, the Ravens have a quality back in Gus Edwards that they can lean on while Dobbins is out and they just signed Melvin Gordon for insurance.

Walker has more upside and similar risks to Dobbins. If you want to take Dobbins a round-and-a-half later and make the ADP argument, then I understand. Me? I’ll take the younger, more explosive legs with a groin injury over the guy who’s been limited to eight games over the past two years and is a threat to hold out over his contract.

The Case for J.K. Dobbins

Neil: Given the choice between these two players, I am forced to admit it really isn't that much of a debate in my eyes. I'm auto-clicking J.K. Dobbins every day of the week, and twice on Sundays.

Dobbins is even further removed from the injury that has derailed him for large chunks of the last two seasons. Assuming he and the Ravens find a middle ground regarding his current contract situation, I think there is a good chance of a career year for Dobbins in this new-look offense.

It's not as if Dobbins was awful when he actually played last year (although at times he looked far from stellar if the eye test is anything to go by). He commanded 11.5 carries per game, which is only a tick below Travis Etienne, who garnered 13. Dobbins was far and away more efficient on his carries than his Jaguars counterpart, and it's not even really close. Dobbins posted 1.3 rushing yards over expected per carry, while Etienne managed 0.7. Indeed, Dobbins ranked 13th among all players with at least 75 rush attempts last season with an expected points added per attempt of 0.05. Etienne was down at 34 with a -0.03 mark.

Dobbins was also better than Etienne before and after contact. Dobbins averaged 3.3 yards before contact per carry, and 2.2 yards after contact. Etienne could only muster 1.9 and 1.8, respectively. Neither player did much to shout about from a receiving point of view, it must be said. Etienne averaged 2.6 targets per game, while Dobbins saw one.

There is also uncertainty surrounding Etienne's role this season that makes me think Dobbins, even without a regular dose of targets, is a much better bet in fantasy terms. The Jaguars have gone out of their way to stress they don't want a bell cow back on their hands. Etienne accounted for 74% of the team carries after James Robinson was waived last October, and that number is not one the team wants to see a repeat of. The Jaguars signed D'Ernest Johnson in free agency and also drafted Tank Bigsby, who is seriously impressing the team with his pass-catching chops. These moves make me wonder just how big of the pie Etienne will really receive this season.

The Ravens have not spoken in glowing terms about the players sharing the running back with Dobbins, it must be acknowledged. They are not writing sea poems about Gus Edwards, although their feelings towards Edwards are well known. There are no operas being composed about the three-down skillset of Melvin Gordon at this stage of his career. Dobbins will have to make do with some competition, this is clear. But his efficiency makes me feel stronger about his ability to make more with less than Etienne would be able to do.

We have these two players ranked fairly close together, with Etienne sitting at RB18 and Dobbins at RB21. But I was frankly stunned when I saw the ADPs of these two players. Given the choice of Etienne as the 14th running back off the board at the end of the third round, or Dobbins as the 22nd at the end of the fifth, I'm sitting and waiting for Dobbins. Each and every time.