SharpClarke Divisional Preview: AFC North

Aug 20, 2023

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This week, we take a look at the dogfight that's about to unfold in the AFC North. Featuring strong defenses from top to bottom and quarterbacks with solid upside, I expect the division winner to be tried and tested for a Super Bowl run in the tough AFC. Let's talk about how each team might get there and how I view them heading into the season.

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Cincinnati Bengals

Narrative

Not too much has changed structurally for the Bengals from the beginning of last season to the beginning of this season. Orlando Brown Jr. should improve the offensive line, but the secondary lost two key starters in Vonn Bell and Jessie Bates. Yet the Bengals are projected to win two more games than they were at this time last year, primarily due to how well they played down the stretch last year. They finished the regular season 8-0 and crushed the Bills in Buffalo in the playoffs before losing by three points to the Super Bowl champion Chiefs. They also covered most of those games against the spread, confirming bullish opinions and rewarding optimistic bettors. But many of those same games revealed some question marks for those who were looking beyond the final scores. That's why we have seen some buy-back on bearish Bengals' futures despite positive news on Joe Burrow suggesting he'll be ready to go in Week 1. The schedule is not overwhelmingly difficult outside the division, but if the Bengals should stumble, several teams are waiting to pounce.

Burrow is a top quarterback in the league who excels with anticipation and accuracy. But he still does not have the next-level ability to deal with pressure the way Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen can. While somewhat valid, his perceived ability to deliver in clutch moments also stems from having a defense that has played well in big games throughout his career. His EPA/play in the 4th quarter and overtime of playoff games is 0.009, and his success rate per dropback is 38.5%. Lou Anorumo deserves arguably as much credit as Burrow for the Bengals' playoff success to date. Of course, Burrow is still young and improving. His mental grasp of the game is very strong, and his focus and calm under pressure is a valid trait. This offense will always be decent with Ja'marr Chase and Tee Higgins on the outside and a good offensive line. But the price on this team is likely closer to its ceiling than its floor. I project the gap between the Bengals and the next tier of teams (including teams in their own division) to be small and fragile.

Betting Approach

Earlier this off-season, I saw value fading the Bengals, but the market has caught up. Optimism abounds for all the teams in this division, which has kept the Bengals' prices reasonable. They are correctly favored to win the division but might be overpriced in AFC and Super Bowl markets. This creates opportunity in those markets for other contenders if you agree that the perception of the Bengals being "clutch" is a little overdone. The Bengals might also start the season a little slow, with Burrow once again missing time during training camp. Still, it's hard to aggressively fade a team that has delivered so many times.

Baltimore Ravens

Narrative

Cincinnati's first challenger is the Ravens, who have disappointed for two years straight due to injuries, primarily to Lamar Jackson. But they have also dealt with running back, offensive line, and secondary injuries. For a team once built on winning up front, dominating the ground game, and punishing opposing teams in comeback mode, they have somewhat lost their identity as a result. Now Greg Roman is out at offensive coordinator, and Todd Monken is in, promising to bring a more sophisticated passing game with Odell Beckham, Jr., Rashod Bateman, and rookie Zay Flowers on the outside. Monken's last stint in the NFL was not overly successful, but he did well at Georgia and has never worked with a quarterback that has Jackson's unique skill set. Ravens fans hope that he can help Jackson open up a more traditional pocket-passing game to complement his electric running ability and hopefully decrease the hits he takes to help him avoid injury.

I am not completely convinced this will work out as expected, but I understand the optimism. Jackson has developed more slowly as a pocket passer due to the style of offense he has played in the NFL and remains inconsistent when throwing timing routes with accuracy. He is much more successful when reacting to a defense and throwing to a spot that becomes open, as opposed to creating or anticipating open opportunities. And for all that has been made of his lack of weapons during his career, those receivers have made a lot of great plays for him, outside of Hollywood Marquise Brown's drops against the Lions. It's possible these receivers carry more name value than actual value at this point, so we cannot assume this is the best situation Jackson has had in his career. Still, the coaching staff led by John Harbaugh is excellent, the defense should be solid, and Jackson is ultimately a playmaker. I expect a very competitive season from Baltimore, even if they have some hiccups along the way.

Betting Approach

The Ravens used to have a clear identity that made betting on their games quite profitable, but their identity has likely shifted. I'm taking a wait-and-see approach for the most part. I agree with the bettors who have closed the perceived gap between the Ravens and Bengals at the top of this division, but now that they are getting more respect I am not looking to get overly exposed on this team. After all, they are not the only challengers here.

Cleveland Browns

Narrative

The Browns can also challenge the Bengals this year. They are a popular "on paper" team, featuring a quarterback who was once near the top of the league in EPA/play, a perenially strong offensive line, and a well-schemed defense that bolstered its front in the off-season to address its biggest weakness. What's not to like? First, most of this stuff has been true for years, and it hasn't really made a difference on the field. Kevin Stefanski is often heralded as a good coach, but I'm just not sure I've seen evidence of it in Cleveland. Second, I am not sold on Deshaun Watson. Understanding that he had been out of football for a long time before he got on the field last year, I was completely underwhelmed with his performance. Over a six-game stretch, that's not a good sign. I was lower on Watson even before he hit the field last year, and skeptical that his skill set maps well to the way defenses play in today's NFL. What I saw was confirmation, albeit in a limited sample size.

I don't often talk about culture because it's hard to quantify, but I think it matters here. Whenever there is a conflict that breaks a team, like there was between Baker Mayfield and Kevin Stefanski, there are two people to blame. Yet somehow, Mayfield gets all the bad rep for being immature. I actually thought Mayfield was a good prospect and chalked some of his failures up to his circumstances. Then, to replace Mayfield, the Browns spent an inordinate amount of money to make Watson the face of the franchise. Even before the allegations of sexual misconduct, Watson was a poor on-field leader with consistently bad body language. At times, he seemed indifferent to the result of plays. Even when he was good, his team never really threatened to win much. The off-field stuff just strengthens the impact of these perceived flaws. With all that guaranteed money, I have a hard time seeing him inspire his teammates with passion all of a sudden. Again, these things are hard to quantify. But look at Jalen Hurts for a counter-example. He won his teammates over with how he carried himself, and you could see a team coalescing around him last year. For all the talent the Browns have on paper, I need to see it work on the field before I give them too much credit for being good on paper. As always, winning can certainly help with any cultural deficiencies a team has. It's easier to show up early when you're on the path to a Super Bowl.

Betting Approach

Despite what sounds like a pessimistic appraisal, I am not outright fading the Browns. The people who love this team on paper are right. There is talent up and down this roster. If Watson can run a balanced offense that features his mobility, Nick Chubb might even be better this season than in the past, which is hard to imagine. They have an easier schedule than the Ravens and Bengals, including a Week 1 home game against a questionable Joe Burrow. Ignoring the potential upside of this team would be a mistake. They may not even need much from Watson to be decent. I'm hands-off on this team, which has a very wide range of outcomes.

Pittsburgh Steelers

Narrative

The Steelers are probably the best team in the NFL projected to finish fourth in its division. They have tons of talent, and Mike Tomlin is one of the best coaches in the NFL. Their defense is not what it once was, but still features a few elite players, particularly in the front seven. The offensive line took a major step forward last year in part because they stayed intact and built continuity and chemistry together. This allowed the run game to get on track, taking the pressure off young Kenny Pickett down the stretch. They finished the season on a 6-1 run despite averaging fewer than 20 points per game, pointing to the strength of their defense and run game. It would have been more impressive if they had beaten at least one good team in that stretch, but even against a weak schedule, they did what they needed to do.

The big question entering 2023 is whether Matt Canada and Kenny Pickett can grow and evolve. What they did last year was not sustainable. Pickett made most of his best plays out of structure, often abandoning clean pockets prematurely. When he did play within structure, his best plays did not require him to read the defense or anticipate. He just had such great ball placement in one-on-ones, particularly to George Pickens, who can make catches even when covered. He struggled against zone defenses, which require a quarterback to understand and anticipate spacing. And Canada did not help Pickett out by keeping things too vanilla and not incorporating hot routes at the line of scrimmage. Basically, Pickett's receivers had to win. If they didn't, Pickett had to create. I expect growth here in year two, but it's not a given. Adding in the possibility that the offensive line does not stay as healthy as it did last year, this may be an up-and-down season for Pickett and this offense. In this tough division, they can't afford that.

Betting Approach

A lot of people, including bettors I respect, are very optimistic about this team. I respect their opinion and understand it, but I ultimately do not join in. I will wait on the sidelines because I have my doubts about the sustainability of this offense, and whether they can continue to win without a strong ground game and/or against better opponents. Pickett could be primed for a big second year, but current prices imply a big step already. At a certain point, market sentiment can go too far and create value on the other side.

Market Projections

Based on aggregating currently-available odds, the betting markets project the following for each team:

Bengals - 11.2 wins, ~39% chance to win the AFC North

Ravens - 10.2 wins, ~28% chance to win the AFC North

Browns - 9.4 wins, ~18% chance to win the AFC North

Steelers - 8.9 wins, ~15% chance to win the AFC North

Best Bet

The best bet on the board in this division has to be PIT Under 9 Wins (-105) available at Caesars. I am not ready to buy the offense for the reasons stated above, and I think the positive vibes stemming from a strong finish have carried a little too strongly into this season. Now, Pickett looked very, very good in preseason action, so this is a squeamish bet. But it only loses if the Steelers get to 10 wins, which is unlikely. I expect another 8- or 9-win season for the Steelers unless Pickett takes a massive step forward. Possible, but not likely.