Survivor Pool Strategy: Five Things You Need To Know In 2023

Aug 29, 2023

When it comes to NFL survivor pool strategy, the 2023 season presents a unique set of challenges. If you want to maximize your edge in survivor contests, you need to plan ahead for the likely decision scenarios you're going to face this year.

In this post, we identify five key dynamics that will impact optimal survivor pool strategy in 2023, from the implications of scheduling imbalances to specific weeks with tough choices to make.

(To learn more about the basic principles of winning survivor pool strategy, check out our other article on 4for4 about common mistakes to avoid in survivor pools.)

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#1 - Week 1 Features Some Intriguing Survivor Pick Options With Low Future Value

The 2023 NFL season starts with several of the top teams either facing off against each other, or playing on the road. So you may need to consider some Week 1 pick options that give you some pause.

Here are the only teams currently favored by five or more points in Week 1:

Baltimore (-9.5) vs. Houston
Kansas City (-7) vs. Detroit
Washington (-7) vs. Arizona
Minnesota (-6.5) vs. Tampa Bay
Philadelphia (-5) at New England

Three of the teams above may not be your best choice as a Week 1 survivor pick, though.

Baltimore is likely to be a very popular pick in Week 1, which would erode its value. Kansas City is one of the NFL's top contenders in 2023 and should be favored by more than a touchdown in several future weeks. There should also be better spots to pick Philadelphia later in the season, when the Eagles are favored by more than just five points.

In contrast, Minnesota and Washington each have fairly low future value as survivor picks in 2023, and are potentially intriguing Week 1 pick options from a risk-vs.-reward standpoint. They are riskier picks than Baltimore, but in relatively compelling spots.

Minnesota faces Tampa Bay in the Bucs' first game after the Tom Brady era, with Tampa Bay substantially downgraded at QB. In addition, we don’t project the Vikings to be favored by as many as 6.5 points for the rest of the 2023 season.

Despite the Commanders starting Sam Howell at QB in only his second career NFL start, Washington is one of the larger favorites of Week 1. That's primarily because Arizona is expected to be the worst team in the NFL in 2023, and the Cardinals will also be without Kyler Murray at the start of the year.

Week 1 may well end up being Washington's best chance to win a game this year, as we currently project the Commanders to be favored in only one other game all season.

Other low future value options in Week 1 such as Atlanta, Denver, and New Orleans would be even riskier picks than Minnesota or Washington, but still favored by more than a field goal and potentially worth consideration, especially in very large pools.

#2 - The Schedules Of Top Contenders Are Front-Loaded With Easier Matchups

Every NFL season is different, and that fact applies even more to survivor pool strategy in 2023.

While you often want to save top teams to use later in the season (especially in larger pools, where you will almost certainly need to survive all 18 weeks to win), optimal pick strategy this year may call for burning more top teams early.

The reason is that many of the projected top contenders in 2023 have several of their easier matchups during the early weeks.

For example, heading into the season, our top eight teams based on their future value as survivor pool picks in 2023 are Cincinnati, Kansas City, Buffalo, Philadelphia, San Francisco, Dallas, Baltimore, and Jacksonville.

Right now, here’s how many times we collectively project those eight teams to have win odds of 70% or higher in a given week, dividing the season into three parts:

Early season (Weeks 1-6): 20 matchups
Middle season (Weeks 7-12): 9 matchups
Late season (Weeks 13-18): 9 matchups

In addition, five of these eight top contenders have their highest projected win odds game of the regular season scheduled during the first four weeks. Only Philadelphia currently has its projected easiest matchup of 2023 scheduled after Thanksgiving (in Week 17 vs. Arizona).

You might still want to save some of these teams to pick later in the season, of course. But with over half of their easiest matchups coming by the end of Week 6, unleashing some of the big guns earlier than usual may be the best survivor pool strategy in 2023.

#3 - Imbalanced 2023 Schedules May Force Some Riskier Pick Strategies

Another important insight impacting 2023 survivor pool strategy is the existence of fairly extreme strength of schedule imbalances from team to team.

This season, a lot of the projected best teams often play each other, as do a lot of teams with big question marks.

We have preseason NFL strength of schedule ratings going back to 2011 posted on our data site, TeamRankings. Across that decade-plus span, five of the six toughest-ever NFL schedules based on preseason power ratings occur in 2023, as do the four easiest schedules.

For example, the AFC East is loaded this season. Teams like the Bills and Jets not only have to play each other, they also face the AFC West and NFC East, two other divisions with few weak links.

Meanwhile, the NFC South doesn't even land a single team in the top 16 of our 2023 preseason NFL power rankings. It also draws the AFC South and NFC North, from which divisions Jacksonville and Detroit are the only two teams in the upper half of our preseason rankings.

What does this all mean for survivor pool strategy? First, several top teams in 2023 aren't worth as much as survivor picks as they usually are, because they face abnormally tough schedules this season.

Second, the scheduling quirks of 2023 mean that a broader range of teams than usual may be viable survivor picks at some point during the year. As of the preseason, we project 25 different teams to have at least one matchup where their win odds are 65% or higher, a threshold that often warrants consideration as a pick.

Finally, greater schedule imbalance generally makes things more difficult for survivor pool players. (Fun fact: According to the Optimal Path tool included in our NFL Survivor Picks product, even the best-planned path of the "safest" picks over the course of the 2023 season gives you only a 1-in-200 chance of going 18-0.)

So get used to the idea that in 2023, you'll probably find yourself considering using more of those scary teams like Carolina or Chicago or Atlanta as survivor picks, because they're playing an even worse team during a week in which all the good NFL teams have tough matchups.

#4 - Cleveland Could Be An Extremely Popular Survivor Pick In Week 9

We are already forecasting a major survivor pick popularity pileup in Week 9, so you shouldn't wait to start planning your pick strategy for that week.

Right now, we project Cleveland to be a pretty large favorite against Arizona, during a week in which we project no other team to have more than 65% win odds, give or take. (Historically, 65% win odds is equivalent to being a 4- or 5-point favorite in the NFL.)

As of the preseason, the "best of the rest" survivor pick options for Week 9 include some truly nausea-inducing matchups, such as New England vs. Washington, Carolina vs. Indianapolis, and Green Bay vs. the LA Rams.

Of course, teams can surprise in the early season, and perhaps the Week 9 slate won't look quite so dire for survivor pool players once it actually arrives. However, there would need to be some big shifts in expectations for Cleveland not to be the biggest favorite of the week.

If projections for Week 9 generally hold, the Browns could be an incredibly popular survivor pick, with negative expected value. (In other words, picking them may be your safest option for Week 9, but not your best pick for eventually winning your pool.)

The problem is that fading the public to avoid Cleveland in Week 9 might require taking a big roll of the dice on a very risky pick.

#5 - The Jets Are Late-Season Survivor Pick Flyers In 2023

We've already noted that a lot of the top contenders in 2023 have front-loaded schedules of easier matchups. However, one team that could become a key cog in late-season survivor strategy is the New York Jets.

The Jets are one of the 2023 teams that has one of the toughest NFL schedules we have seen since 2011. In addition, the majority of their most difficult matchups come early in the season. In fact, we project the Jets’ three easiest matchups all to come after Thanksgiving:

Week 13 vs. Atlanta
Week 14 vs. Houston
Week 16 vs. Washington

So the Jets could also be a very popular survivor pick in at least one of those late weeks listed above, which would erode their expected value as a pick. But it also might be the case that most survivor pool entries that make it to Week 13 will no longer have the Jets to use.

(Of course, this analysis also assumes that veteran QB Aaron Rodgers delivers upon preseason expectations with a new team, and is still healthy and going strong in December!)

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